TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: GUIDANT POLLING AND STRATEGY

RE: NORTH DAKOTA GOP GUBERNATORIAL SURVEY RESULTS
DATE: May 9, 2024
____________________________________________________________________________________

Guidant Polling and Strategy conducted a survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters in North Dakota May 4-8,
2024. A majority of the interviews were conducted via cell phones, with additional interviews done via text to web and
landline phones. The margin of error is +/-4.38% at a 95% confidence interval.

KEY FINDING
With a month to go, Representative Kelly Armstrong is firmly positioned as the frontrunner for the Republican
nomination for Governor. Armstrong leads by a staggering 41-points on the ballot and seven out of ten Republican
primary voters view him favorably. Miller, on the other hand, faces a daunting challenge: her poor image ratings make
it exceedingly difficult for her to close the wide ballot gap and mount a successful challenge with just over four weeks
to go.

THE SPECIFICS:
• Representative Armstrong leads the Gubernatorial ballot 60% to 19% over Lt. Governor Miller—a 41-point
advantage. Armstrong’s advantage over Miller extends with important primary demographics including older
and conservative voters as well as those who have an opinion of both candidates (62% of primary voters and a
key indicator of who will win the election).

Thinking about the Republican primary for Governor of North Dakota, if the election was held today and the candidates
were Kelly Armstrong for Governor with Michelle Strinden for Lt. Governor or Tammy Miller for Governor with Josh
Teigen for Lt. Governor, for whom would you vote?

100% Armstrong Miller Undecided

80%
60% 61% 62% 64%
60%

40%
24%
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 18%
20% 11%
0%
Overall Age 65+ Conservative Opinion of Both

• Representative Armstrong is highly popular among likely Republican primary voters in the state—earning a Net
50-point favorable rating—69% favorable, 19% unfavorable.
Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following people. Kelly Armstrong

www.guidantps.com
 100% Favorable

80% 69% Unfavorable

60%

40%
19%
20%

0%

• Meanwhile, just weeks out from the election, Lt. Governor Tammy Miller continues to struggle to connect with
Republican primary voters and still lacks credibility despite her statewide office. Just 32% of voters give her a
favorable rating, 33% give her an unfavorable rating, and 22% have no real opinion about her.
Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following people. Tammy Miller

100% Favorable

80% Unfavorable

60%

40% 32% 33%

20%

0%

BOTTOM LINE
Lt. Governor Tammy Miller’s not-so-subtle attempts to reinvent herself in her campaign for Governor have fallen flat.
This has resulted in Representative Kelly Armstrong being well-positioned to beat Lt. Governor Tammy Miller and
earn the GOP nomination to be the next Governor of North Dakota.