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The Decision Maker's Handbook To Data Science: A Guide For Non-Technical Executives, Managers, and Founders 2nd Edition Stylianos Kampakis
The Decision Maker's Handbook To Data Science: A Guide For Non-Technical Executives, Managers, and Founders 2nd Edition Stylianos Kampakis
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Stylianos Kampakis
3. They want to use data science but they don’t know where to
start.
Chapter 9:Pitfalls
Index
About the Author
Stylianos (Stelios) Kampakis
is a data scientist who is living and
working in London, UK. He holds a PhD
in Computer Science from the
University College London as well as an
MSc in Informatics from the University
of Edinburgh. He also holds degrees in
Statistics, Cognitive Psychology,
Economics, and Intelligent Systems. He
is a member of the Royal Statistical
Society and an honorary research
fellow in the UCL Centre for Blockchain
Technologies. 1 He has many years of
academic and industrial experience in
all fields of data science like statistical modeling, machine learning,
classic AI, optimization, and more.
Throughout his career, Stylianos has been involved in a wide range
of projects: from using deep learning to analyze data from mobile
sensors and radar devices, to recommender systems, to natural
language processing for social media data, to predicting sports
outcomes. He has also done work in the areas of econometrics,
Bayesian modeling, forecasting, and research design. He also has
many years of experience in consulting for startups and scale-ups,
having successfully worked with companies of all stages, some of
which have raised millions of dollars in funding. He is still providing
services in data science and blockchain as a partner in Electi
Consulting.
In the academic domain, he is one of the foremost experts in the
area of sports analytics, having done his PhD in the use of machine
learning for predicting football injuries. He has also published papers
in the areas of neural networks, computational neuroscience, and
cognitive science. Finally, he is also involved in blockchain research
and more specifically in the areas of tokenomics, supply chains, and
securitization of assets.
Stylianos is also very active in the area of data science education. He
is the founder of The Tesseract Academy, 2 a company whose
mission is to help decision makers understand deep technical topics
such as machine learning and blockchain. He is also teaching “Social
Media Analytics” and “Quantitative Methods and Statistics with R” in
the Cyprus International Institute of Management 3 and runs his own
data science school in London called Datalyst. 4
Finally, he often writes about data science, machine learning,
blockchain, and other topics at his personal blog: The Data Scientist.
5
2 http://tesseract.academy
3 www.ciim.ac.cy/
4 www.dataly.st/
5 http://thedatascientist.com/
© Stylianos Kampakis 2020
Stylianos Kampakis, The Decision Maker's Handbook to Data Science,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4842-5494-3_1
In the business world, data has become a big thing. You hear all
sorts of buzzwords being thrown around left, right, and center.
Things like big data, artificial intelligence, machine learning, data
mining, deep learning, and so on. This can get confusing, leaving
you paralyzed as to what is the best technology to use and under
what circumstances. In this chapter, we are going to demystify all
these buzzwords, by taking a short stroll through the history of data
science. You will understand how the history of data analysis gave
birth to different schools of thought and disciplines, which have now
all come together under the umbrella of the term data science.
Okay, so those are a lot of big and fancy words, which can get
confusing. Let’s boil it down to the simplest definition:
Short and to the point. That’s exactly what data science is all about.
The methods we use are important, of course, but the essence of
this discipline is that it allows us to take data and transform it so we
can use it to do useful things.
For example, let’s say someone visits a doctor because they are
short of breath. They are experiencing heartburn and they have
chest pains. The doctor will run the basic tests, including measuring
blood pressure, but nothing seems out of the ordinary.
Since the patient is overweight, the doctor immediately assumes the
symptoms are caused by the patient’s size and recommends a
healthier diet and exercise.
Three months later, the same patient is brought into the emergency
room and ends up dying on the table because of a heart defect.
This might sound like an episode on your favorite medical show, that
is, a work of fiction, but it happens much more often than you might
think. In fact, in the United States, 5% of patients are misdiagnosed,
while misdiagnosis cost the United Kingdom over £197 million in the
2014/2015 fiscal year.5
However, this situation can be avoided thanks to data science. The
analysis of similar cases reveals that the symptoms our patient
exhibited aren’t just caused by obesity but also by some
cardiovascular conditions.
Having access to systems that can analyze data and compare it with
new data inputs could have helped the doctor identify the problem
sooner without relying solely on their own personal experience and
knowledge.
So, data science can be used to save lives, among many other
applications, which is pretty useful.
Or:
If it’s raining outside and I don’t have an umbrella, I will get wet
if I go out.
While statistics offers a higher degree of transparency and
interpretability, machine learning has led to incredible performance.
This amazing performance has allowed us to perform tasks
previously thought impossible!
Of course, one has to remember that machine learning is the
product of the computer era, which means much faster calculations.
Instead of it taking days of work for a single model, it takes minutes
—if that—and multiple approaches can be tried in a single day.
The Battle: Statistics vs. Machine Learning
Some statisticians are incredibly opposed to machine learning.29
Religiously opposed. Sometimes, it’s actually a bit worrisome. Their
problem is the lack of transparency in machine learning as well as a
lack of theory.
However, in reality, statistics and machine learning are two sides of
the same coin. Furthermore, they are tools in a data scientist’s
toolbox and can be applied as the situation requires. So, if you are
looking for interpretability, then statistics is your best bet, while
predictive power will be better served by machine learning.
The Trousers can be Easily Hung on the Cross Bars to Keep the Crease in
Them
A wood frame, similar to a picture frame, is made up and hinged to
the inner side of the closet door with its outer edge hung on two
chains. The inside of the frame is fitted with cross bars. After
hanging the trousers on the cross bars the frame is swung up
against the door where it is held with a hook. Several pairs of
trousers can be hung on the frame, and when flat against the door it
takes up very little space. The trousers are kept flat so that they will
hold their crease.
An Emergency Alcohol Stove
If a person starts on a picnic with a ketchup bottle full of wood
alcohol placed in the lunch basket and suddenly discovers that the
alcohol stove was left at home, it is not necessary to walk back to get
it; just unscrew the cover of the ketchup bottle and bunch a piece of
cloth large enough to fill the top, soak it thoroughly in the alcohol and
light it. The metal top is just the right size to make a hot flame.
¶A box 8¹⁄₄ in. square and 4 in. deep will hold one gallon.
Fireside Dissolving Views
By SUSAN E. W. JOCELYN
Toshowing
those interested in amateur theatricals the following method of
dissolving views in the fire-light of pipe dreams and mind
pictures will be appreciated.
A frame made of light material, A, Fig. 1, covered with red cloth
and chalked to represent brick, is placed in the center of the stage.
The central opening, representing the fireplace, must be rather large,
about 12 ft. wide and 7 ft. high, because it is at the back of this
opening that the pictures are produced. From the chimney back, 2¹⁄₂
ft. behind this opening, the sides, B, of the fireplace slope outward to
the imitation brickwork. The walls of the fireplace are covered with
sheet asbestos, for safety, and painted black; then ashes are rubbed
on the chimney back and scattered over the hearthstone, to make
the appearance more realistic.
The chimney back is removable, in fact it is one of a series of a
half dozen screens, the others being behind it, the proper
manipulation of which, together with changing lights, gives to the
audience the effect of dissolving views of the dreams that are being
acted out directly behind the screens.
The Tableau is Played Out behind the Screens and is Dimly Seen through the
Fireplace Opening When the Lights are Properly Controlled and the Screens
Drawn Slowly
The screens are carried in a light frame, the top of which is shown
in Fig. 2, with position of runs. The runs are made of narrow strips of
wood, fastened to the under side of two end pieces, for the screen
frames to slide in. Corresponding strips are placed in a suitable
position on the floor, to keep the screens steady in sliding. The
frames holding the run pieces are longer than the chimney back is
wide, and the upper one is placed as high as the brickwork, the
shelf, or mantel, over the fireplace being an extension of the upper
part, or frame. The screens are in pairs, as shown in Fig. 3, each
one extending to the center of the fireplace. They consist of light
frames covered with black mosquito netting. The upper and lower
sides of the frames are sandpapered smooth so that they will move
easily in the runs. The vertical sides of a pair of screen frames that
meet in the center of the fireplace are made of one strand of wire,
instead of wood, so that their motion will not be noticeable. To
complete the apparatus, andirons and a gas log are needed in the
fireplace, and whatever arrangements are necessary for the action of
the views to be shown behind the screens.
If gas is available, an asbestos log is used in the fireplace, and it
has a connecting pipe to the footlights, where four or five jets are
located on the floor just back of the screens. A narrow board, painted
black, is placed in front of the lights, which should be wide enough to
conceal the lights from the spectators and reflect the light on the
tableau. If the light is thrown above the imitation brickwork, then it
should be made higher.
In most halls, and some houses, electric lights are used instead of
gas, and in this case ordinary logs are piled in the fireplace on the
andirons, and one or more red globes are introduced to produce the
effect of glowing embers. The gas is more effective, however,
because it is not easy to get a gradual rise and fall in the glow of
electric lights. Four or five footlights are sufficient.
Fig. 2
Fig. 1
Fig. 3
Frames Made of Light Material and Covered with Black Mosquito Netting
Serve as Screens Which are Operated in Runs Located behind the
Fireplace That is Made Up in a Like Manner and Penciled to Represent
Brick
The working of the dissolving views can be best explained by an
illustration from “Reveries of a Bachelor.” The gas log is turned low
to make the stage dimly lighted, and the tableau to be shown is all
arranged behind the chimney back and the screens. There should be
barely sufficient light to reveal the bachelor on the hearthstone
smoking in the gloaming. Then the chimney back almost
imperceptibly parts, that is, the screens of the first pair are gradually
pulled apart, the footlights and gas log are gradually turned on, and
the tableau behind the fireplace, being more brightly illuminated, is
dimly seen through the series of screens. Slowly the successive
pairs of screens are drawn aside, and the tableau becomes quite
distinct. Then the process is reversed, the screens are gradually
replaced, the lights are lowered and the dream fades away;
brightens and fades again; brightens and fades, till gone entirely.
The screens are always slowly moving while the tableau is exposed,
and this makes the illusory effect. It is evident that the success of
this plan depends principally on the coördination with which the
screens are operated. “Cinderella,” and many other tales based on
the vagaries of the mind and having their source in glowing embers,
can thus be presented.
Imitation-Celluloid Scales and Name Plates
Often the amateur turns out a very workmanlike piece of
apparatus, which only lacks the addition of a scale or name plate to
give it a truly professional appearance. I recently hit upon an
excellent method of making these articles in a manner that will stand
considerable wear and at the same time present a very good
appearance. Simply take a piece of good Bristol board and letter it
as desired with waterproof drawing ink, then apply a coat of clear
varnish, such as is used on bird’s-eye maple furniture. After not less
than 24 hours rub lightly with fine steel wool, wipe clean, and
revarnish. Usually two coats are sufficient, and the last should be
rubbed with a soft oily rag dipped in some abrasive material such as
tooth powder, or one of the many powders used for metal polishing.
Finally polish with a little oil, and the result will be a perfect imitation
of celluloid.—Contributed by John D. Adams, Phoenix, Ariz.
Direct View Finder for a Box Camera
Disappointment in the taking of pictures with a small camera is
often caused by the inability of the photographer to obtain an
accurate view of what he is photographing. If, instead of the small
view finder on the camera, the device illustrated is used, a view of
the resultant photograph may be obtained, right side up, and of
nearly the same size as the finished print.
Sight through the Eyepiece for a Direct View of the Object Photographed,
Thus Insuring More Nearly the Accuracy of the Result
The distance from the lens of the camera to the front surface of
the plate or film must be determined. In the camera shown this was
4¹⁄₂ in. The distance from the small metal eyepiece, when it is in
place on the box, to the inner side of the opposite end of the box
must be made ¹⁄₂ in. shorter than this measurement. This will cause
the box to be shorter than the camera.
The box is constructed so that the sides extend above the top and
engage the camera. The view-finder eyepiece is made from a flat
piece of sheet metal, laid out as shown, and bent into the desired
shape. It is fixed over the center of the end of the box. The sight hole
must be ¹⁄₃₂ in. in diameter. By sighting through the small opening in
the eyepiece an unobstructed view of the prospective photograph is
obtained.—Contributed by A. S. Thomas, Amherstburg, Ont.
Checking a Rip in Tire Tubes
It is often difficult to prevent a small rip in an inner tube of a tire
from becoming longer, even though a patch has been applied. An
effective remedy is to punch a small round hole at each end of the
rip before applying the patch. This stops the tendency to rip farther
when pressure is applied.—Contributed by George H. Holden,
Chesterfield, England.
Protecting Wall Back of Range or Sink
A simple and attractive protection for the wall back of the range or
sink in a kitchen was provided by fixing a piece of plate glass to the
wall by means of round-headed brass screws. The glass may be
washed easily and can be removed when new wall covering is
applied.—Contributed by Jennie E. McCoy, Philadelphia, Pa.
Polishing with a Hand Drill
There are certain desired effects in polishing metal that can only
be obtained with a true rotary motion. There is no amount of
handwork that will produce a proper finish on the round head of a
brass screw. Therefore, when small pieces of metal are to be shaped
up with the file and polished, simply set them in a three-jaw chuck of
a hand drill, and then clamp the drill in a vise, as shown in the
illustration. Operate the drill with the left hand and hold the file, or
emery paper, with the right, and a finish will be obtained that can in
nowise be distinguished from lathe work. It is surprising how different
round-head brass screws appear when treated in this manner.
Releasing a Parachute from a Kite
Pull In About a Yard of the Kite String and Release It, Tripping the Parachute
Parachutes may be released from suspended kites readily by
providing tripping loops on the kite tail, as shown in the illustration.
Form a loop on one end of a piece of cord, and tie the other end to
the kite tail. Make a loop in one end of another piece of cord and tie
the other end to the top of the parachute. Tie a piece of cord around
a nail close to its head and fix this also to the kite tail. Pass one loop
through the other and insert the nail, as shown in the sketch. To trip
the parachute, pull in about a yard of string and release it quickly.
The parachute will trip without fail. The end of the string may be
fastened to a stake driven into the ground or it may be held in the
hand.
A Trick Blotter
An ordinary blotter may be transformed easily so that it will remove
ink completely when applied instead of leaving sufficient to recognize
the script, by steeping it in a solution of oxalic acid. Permit it to dry
after several applications of the acid. It will be the source of much
amusement, and is useful as well.
Magic Candles Explained
By CLIFFORD WAYNE
Clever and baffling though it may be, the magic-candle trick may be
performed easily and with professional skill by a person who has
made a few simple preparations. The illustration shows the candles
arranged on a table made of a music stand.
Candles, cigars, or pencils may be used, but for the purpose of
this description the former will be used. The candles are of different
colors but of the same size and weight. The manipulation is as
follows:
Exhibit a tube of brass, cardboard, or other suitable material, just
large enough to contain a candle. Then retire from the room, leaving
the tube on the table while one of the spectators selects one of the
candles and places it into the tube, covering the end of the latter
securely with a small cap. The other candles are hidden before the
performer is permitted to return. The trick is to announce the color of
the candle contained in the box by merely passing the hand over it
several times. The box and candle are passed out for inspection and
will bear it if properly prepared.
The secret of the trick is this: The first candle, for example, the
white one, is unprepared. The second, a blue one, has concealed in
it, ¹⁄₂ in. from the top, a small piece of magnetized steel. The third
candle, a red one, has a similar bar concealed at the middle; the
fourth, a magnetized bar ¹⁄₂ in. from the bottom, and the fifth candle
has the bar at a point halfway between the middle and the bottom.
The candles are made of wood and the magnets may readily be
imbedded in them. They are made of two pieces glued together like
a pencil.