Water demand forecasting

30 December 2011 12:21

Methods to forecast demand

Extrapolation of historic data Per capita coefficient forecasting Statistical analysis (regression) Component demand forecasting - MAIN model Micro component forecasting - OFV methodology

Extrapolation
How and how far to extrapolate?

Per Capita coefficients Statistical analysis

e.g. regression - least squares Modelled on different variables (but which?)
S = 1.96814768 r = 0.99500016
0 4.1 17 0 3.9 16

Developed based on standard industrial classification codes (SIC) Large variations in SICs due to location / climate / etc Overly simplified
Business type Car dealers & service stations Eating & drinking places Hotels & other lodging places Nursing home facilities Hospitals * gallons / employee / day Units* 48.9 156.2 229.8 196.7 75.4

Y Axis (units)

0 3.7 15 0 3.5 14 0 3.3 13 0 3.1 12 0 2.9 1 1 1954.3

1957.7

1961.1

1964.5

1967.9

1971.3

1974.7

X Axis (units)

Component forecasting
Disaggregated demand method - adva nced coefficient approach Group users and apply forecasts; 1. Geography, 2. Water use category, 3. Season, 4. economic cycle

Micro component
Preferred by EA Assess amount of water by component (eg, bath) Group individuals based on water use patters (house type, socio-economic factors, etc)

Q = aI d 1 MP d 2 e ( FC )( d 3) H d 4 HD d 5T d 6 R d 7
where; Q = predicted water use in litres per capita per day I = median household income ( / year) MP = effective marginal price (/m3) e = base of the natural logarithm FC = fixed charge ( / year) H = mean household size (persons/household) HD = housing density (household units / mile2) T = maximum-day temperature (degrees C) R = total yearly rainfall (mm) a = minimum water requirement (itres / day) d1...d7 = elasticity values for each independent

Research pros and cons for all types (essay)

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