NST.

asx
Buy
Northern Star Resources Ltd

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

More +kg/t Intercepts into Voyager Lodes, Paulsens
Northern Star Resources Limited (Northern Star, NST, Company) continues to report high-grade gold results from on-going underground resource drilling at the Paulsens gold mine in the Ashburton-Pilbara region of WA. The latest results include another impressive gold intercept into the Voyager 2 lode with 3,390g/t (or 3.4kg/t gold) intersected over a drill interval of 1.0m. This drill result was part of an overall drill-hole intersection of 8.4m (2.0m true width) @ 412.5g/t Au (uncut grade) from the 437m RL. The Voyager 2 lode is yet to be estimated and represents the down-plunge extension of Paulsens mineralisation. Voyager 2 is expected to provide significant ounces to the Paulsen resource estimate but may potentially have a better grade than Voyager 1, as highlighted by the latest drill results and the 0.8m @ 12,178g/t (12.2kg/t gold) reported late 2011. The Voyager 2 lode has an exploration target of 100K-250Koz, with recent results providing confidence that the maiden resource estimate will be at the upper end of the target. The Company expects to release another resource update for Paulsens mid-2012. Drilling is on-going with assays pending.

Share Price Valuation Price Target

6 Mar 2012 $0.975 $1.01 $1.27

Brief Business Description: WA gold producer and explorer Hartleys Brief Investm ent Conclusion Strong margin gold producer. Unhedged w ith a quality portfolio of projects. Investigating production grow th to 200Kozpa. Chairm an & MD Chris Row e (Chairman) Bill Beament (MD) Top Shareholders - Est Investmet Limited Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd Mr Michael George Fotios Com pany Address 24 Mumford Place Balcatta WA 6021 Issued Capital - fully diluted Market Cap - fully diluted Cash - est Debt - est EV EV/Resource Oz EV/Reserve Oz FY11a FY12e Prod (koz Au) 89 78 Cash Costs (A$/oz) 588 663 Op Cash Flw 78 73 NPAT 16.3 35.8 CF/Share (cps) 17.2 15.0 EPS (cps) 6.3 9.5 P/E 15.6 10.2 Resources (Moz Au) Reserves (Moz Au)

Gold / Precious Metals: Producer

10.2% 5.8% 4.0%

Significant Voyager 1 Results Outside Resource Estimate

Northern Star has also received significant results from Voyager 1, not included in the recent resource estimate. The latest results comprise 1,016g/t (or 1.0kg/t gold) intersected over a drill interval of 0.54m. This drill result was part of an overall drill-hole intersection of 5.2m (4.2m true width) @ 108.6g/t Au (uncut grade) from the 593m RL. Latest results will contribute towards an upgraded estimate for Voyager 1; also expected mid2012. Northern Star plans to increase production at Paulsens from the current level of ~80Kozpa to 100Kozpa, from the December quarter 2012. The expansion to the Paulsens operation will involve a mill upgrade to 450Ktpa (cost ~A$10m).

400.2m 427.1m $390.2m $416.5m $80.0m $0.0m $310.2m $315/oz $2745/oz FY13e 90 601 94 51.4 19.0 12.5 7.8 0.99 0.11

Ashburton Development Studies Progressing Well

The second stage of Northern Stars growth plans, targeting group production of 200Kozpa, involves the undertaking of studies on the Ashburton Sulphide Project, where potential exists for a stand-alone operation producing circa 100Kozpa. The vast majority of the Ashburton sulphide resource is considered refractory in nature. Recent metallurgical test work indicates that utilising Biox (bacterial oxidation) processing can recover ~97% of the gold from a concentrate, which implies total gold recoveries of 80% (at 135 microns grind size) or up to ~93% (at a finer 75 microns grind size). Metallurgical test-work is ongoing. The Company has accelerated drilling plans at the project with 2 rigs on site (1 diamond and 1 RC), aimed at expanding the high-grade resources and improving the confidence of the deposits. Our sum of parts valuation of Northern Star currently assigns ~A$47m value for Ashburton. As development studies progress and resources grow (as expected), this value with increase significantly. Preliminary modelling (14% discount rate, open pit/underground, 100kozpa, limited mine life) of a standalone operation at Ashburton we can derive +A$110m of value. We rate Northern Star Resources Limited as a Buy, with a Valuation of $1.01 and 12-month Price Target of $1.27.
Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052)
Northern Star 1.20 1.00 50.0 45.0 40.0

0.80 A$ 0.60
0.40 0.20

35.0
30.0 25.0M 20.0 15.0 10.0

5.0 0.00 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 0.0 Mar-12

Source: IRESS Volume - RHS NST Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS

Author: Mike Millikan Resources Analyst Ph: +61 8 9268 2805 E: mike_millikan@hartleys.com.au

141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Page 1 of 6

Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Hartleys Limited

Northern Star Resources Limited

6 March 2012

SUMMARY MODEL
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST
Key Market Inform ation Share Price $0.975 Market Capitalisation $390m 52 Week High-Low $1.14-$0.28 Issued Capital 400.2m Issued Capital (fully diluted inc. ITM options) 427.1m Options 27.1m@$A0.11 Hedging None Yearly Turnover/Volume $252.4m/392.1m shares Liquidity Measure (Yearly Turnover/Issued Capital) 98% Valuation $1.01 Price Target $1.27

Share Price $0.975

Directors Chris Row e (Chairman) Bill Beament (MD) Michael Fotios (Non-Exec Director) Peter Farris (Non-Exec Director)

Buy
Com pany Inform ation 24 Mumford Place Balcatta WA 6021 Tel: +61 8 9227 1186 Fax: +61 8 9227 8178 Web: http://w w w .nsrltd.com % 10.2% 5.8% 4.0% 3.6% Attrib. 113

Financial Perform ance Unit Net Revenue Total Costs EBITDA Depreciation/Amort EBIT Net Interest Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense NPAT Abnormal Items Reported Profit Financial Position Cash Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Property, Plant & Equip. Exploration Investments/other Tot Non-Curr. Assets Total Assets Short Term Borrow ings Other Total Curr. Liabilities Long Term Borrow ings Other Total Non-Curr. Liabil. Total Liabilities Net Assets Cashflow Operating Cashflow Income Tax Paid Interest & Other Operating Activities PP&E + Development Exploration Investments Investm ent Activities Borrow ings Equity Dividends Paid Financing Activities Net Cashflow Ratio Analysis Cashflow Per Share Cashflow Multiple Earnings Per Share Price to Earnings Ratio Dividends Per Share Dividend Yield Net Debt / Equity Interest Cover Return on Equity A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m Unit A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m Unit A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m A$m Unit A X A X A % % X %

FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F 115.2 (69.9) 45.3 (24.4) 20.9 (0.8) 20.0 (3.7) 16.3 16.3 129.3 (58.4) 70.9 (20.5) 50.4 0.7 51.2 (15.4) 35.8 35.8 155.6 (58.6) 97.0 (26.6) 70.4 3.0 73.4 (22.0) 51.4 51.4 159.1 (58.7) 100.5 (32.1) 68.3 5.8 74.1 (22.2) 51.9 51.9

Top Shareholders -Est m shares Investmet Limited 41.00 Paradice Investment Management Pty Ltd 23.44 1 Mr Michael George Fotios 16.10 2 Mr William James Beament <The Beament Family A/C> 14.37 3 4 Reserves & Resources Gold Mt g/t Au Koz 5 Paulsens Reserves Dec-11 6 Total- Paulsens 0.83 4.1 113 7 8 Paulsens Resources 9 Open Pit 0.74 2.5 61 # Paulsens Upper Levels 0.17 6.7 36 Voyager 1 0.48 10.5 161 Belvedere 0.17 3.3 18 1.4 Merlin 0.52 24 Mt Clement JV 0.23 1.8 13 Dec-11 Total- Paulsens 2.304 4.3 318 Ashburton Resources Oxide and Transitional Sulphide Total- Ashburton Global Resource - NST Production Sum m ary Mill Throughput Payable Gold Metal Cost per milled tonne EBITDA/Milled t C1: Op Cash Cost = (a) (a) + Royalty = (b) C2: (a) + D&A = (c) (a) + development = (d) C3: (c) + Royalty (d) + Royalty Price Assum ptions Gold Exchange Rate $A Gold Hedging Total Forw ard Sales - Gold Forw ard Gold Price Sensitivity Analysis Base Case Exchange Rate +10% Exchange Rate -10% Gold Price +10% Gold Price -10% Operating Costs +10% Operating Costs -10% Unit Mtpa 000oz A$/t A$/t A$/oz A$/oz A$/oz A$/oz A$/oz A$/oz

61 36 161 18 24 13 318

FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F 16.6 10.4 27.0 11.0 10.1 0.7 21.8 48.8 (1.3) (14.2) (15.5) (2.8) (4.3) (7.1) (22.6) 26.1 94.0 8.5 102.5 24.7 19.9 0.8 45.5 148.0 0.5 (17.3) (16.7) (5.5) (15.4) (20.9) (37.7) 110.3 155.7 9.1 164.9 26.2 15.8 0.8 42.9 207.7 0.5 (14.5) (14.0) (5.5) (25.5) (31.0) (45.0) 162.8 232.2 9.2 241.3 20.7 5.2 0.8 26.7 268.0 0.5 (14.3) (13.8) (5.5) (32.5) (38.0) (51.8) 216.2

Dec-03

1.19 5.96 7.15 9.45

2.4 3.0 2.9 3.4

92 576 668 986

92 576 668 986

FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F 0.29 0.37 0.45 0.45 89 78 90 96 172 158 554 588 828 848 862 881 132 191 622 663 883 988 924 1029 111 216 558 601 854 736 897 779 111 223 519 560 853 685 894 726

FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F 78.2 (0.7) 77.5 (26.2) (4.5) (40.1) (70.7) 4.1 4.7 8.7 15.5 72.8 0.7 73.5 (28.7) (14.3) 0.0 (43.0) 0.9 48.2 46.9 77.4 93.6 (12.0) 3.0 84.6 (16.0) (8.0) (24.0) 1.1 1.1 61.7 100.3 (15.2) 5.8 90.8 (16.0) (16.0) 1.6 1.6 76.4

Unit FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F US$/oz 1670 1823 1734 A$/US$ 1.02 1.05 1.05 A$/oz 1367 1634 1736 1652 Unit 000oz $A/oz FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F NPAT 35.8 31.3 41.4 40.8 30.8 34.0 37.6 EPS () 9.5 8.3 11.0 10.9 8.2 9.1 10.0 CFPS () 15.0 13.8 16.5 16.3 13.7 14.5 15.5

Valuation ($/s) 1.01 0.90 1.14 1.12 0.88 0.95 1.06

*N.B . NP A T, EP S, CFP S fo recasts are fo r FY201 2

FY2011A FY2012F FY2013F FY2014F 17.2 5.7 6.3 15.6 na na 62% 15.0 6.5 9.5 10.2 na 32% 19.0 5.1 12.5 7.8 na 32% 19.8 4.9 12.2 8.0 na 24%

Share Price Valuation (NAV) Paulsens (NPV @ 8%) Ashburton Exploration Exploration- Other Cash Forw ards Corporate Overheads (NPV @ 3%) Total Debt Tax Losses Options & Other Equity Total Spot Valuation Gold: US$1,701/oz, AUDUSD: 1.061

Est. $m 251.3 46.8 20.0 80.0 0.0 (17.3) 4.8 43.8 429.3

Est. $/share 0.588 0.109 0.047 0.187 0.000 (0.041) 0.011 0.103 1.01

449.7

1.05

Analyst: Mike Millikan Phone: +61 8 9268 2805 Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research

Last Updated: 06/03/2012

Page 2 of 6

Hartleys Limited

Northern Star Resources Limited

6 March 2012

Fig. 1: Voyager 2 Lode Position with Recent High-grade Intercepts

Source: Northern Star Resources Limited

Fig. 2: Voyager 1 Lode Position with Recent High -grade Intercepts

Source: Northern Star Resources Limited

Page 3 of 6

Hartleys Limited

Northern Star Resources Limited

6 March 2012

Valuation
We have an sum of parts valuation for Northern Star of $1.01 per share, which is dominated by our Paulsens NPV8 of A$251m (or 59cps). We expect that through systematic exploration the Company will continue to build the mining inventory at Paulsens that will enable both mine life extensions and increase throughput for production towards 100Kozpa. Our 12-month price target for the Company is $1.27, as detailed below.

Fig. 3: Price Target Methodology- NST

Price Target Methodology Base Case NPV @ spot commodity and fx prices Base Case + Ashburton Weighting 60% 10% 30% 6/03/2012 $1.01 $1.06 $1.28 12 Month $1.13 $1.20 $1.57

Risk weighted composite 12 Months Price Target Shareprice - Last 12 mth total return (% to 12mth target)

$1.09 $1.27 $0.99 28%

Source: Hartleys

Fig. 4: Gold price assumptions for our valuation

US$/oz 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 000 Hartleys Assumption for Valuations GOLD (US$)

A$/oz 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 000

Hartleys Assumption for Valuations GOLD (AUD)

Source: Hartleys, Bloomberg

Fig. 5: Key assumptions and risks for valuation ($1.01/share)

Assumption Risk of not realising assumption Downside risk to valuation if assumption is incorrect Low Comment

Ashburton Project assigned Exploration Value

Low

We have at this stage only assigned exploration value to the Ashburton Project, though our preliminary modelling indicates a higher value then currently indicated. As the development studies on the project progress so will our valuation. NST remains a high margin producer generating strong cash from operations and recently raised $45m through equity markets. With current cash of A$80m the Company can fund expansion at Paulsens (capex of ~A10m) and continue with exploration and development studies at the Ashburton Project.

Funding for project expansion/development

Low-Med

Moderate

Paulsens Mine Life

Conclusion

Paulsens has a current reserve of 113koz, implying a mine life over 1 year. A 100% resource conversion implies over 3 year of mine life. We assume a mine life of 5-6 years in our modelling, with resource growth from Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 expected to increase resources beyond 500koz (mining inventory), with additional ore feeds from the Paulsens open pit and satellites. At this stage we consider the assumptions have a low to medium risk of not being achieved. The current small gap between share price and valuation highlights the markets belief that resources will continue to grow at Paulsens with minimal funding risk for production growth aspirations.

Med

High

Source: Hartleys

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HARTLEYS RESEARCH COVERAGE LIST

Hartleys Gold Research Coverage Nam e Resources Gold / Precious Metals 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Evolution Mining Limited Silver Lake Resources Limited Gold One International Limited Intrepid Mines Limited Beadell Resources Limited Integra Mining Limited Northern Star Resources Ltd Papillon Resources Limited PMI Gold Corporation Limited EVN SLR GDO IAU BDR IGR NST PIR PVM FML TAM ABU YTC CJO ERM MYG CAY CRC AUK SAU GPR IGO AVA AQD SWN AGO CTM PEN KAS SRR HAZ 1.95 3.58 0.465 1.22 0.745 0.540 0.985 1.19 1.24 0.050 0.770 0.053 0.405 0.125 0.270 0.084 0.620 0.145 0.095 0.055 0.210 4.06 0.130 0.065 0.061 3.07 0.520 0.061 0.255 0.058 0.099 1,363 789 658 639 490 457 394 283 273 216 201 172 101 94 61 35 33 32 17 15 8 822 22 15 8 2,747 69 130 93 26 26 Producer Producer Producer Developer Developer Producer Producer Explorer Developer Producer Producer Explorer Developer Developer / Explorer Explorer Developer Explorer Developer Explorer Explorer Explorer Gold & Base Prod./Dev. Gold & Base Explorer Diversified explor Base Metal Explorer Producer / Developer Developer / Explorer Developer Tin Developer Manganese: Developer Tungsten Developer Buy Buy Accumulate Speculative Buy Buy Buy Buy Speculative Buy Buy Buy Accumulate Speculative Buy Buy Accumulate Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Accumulate Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Industrials Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Buy Speculative Buy Buy Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Resource Services - Capital Intensive Ausdrill Limited NRW Holdings Ltd Fleetw ood Corporation Mermaid Marine Ltd Macmahon Holdings Limited Imdex Ltd MACA Ltd Matrix Composites & Engineering Limited Pacific Energy Ltd ASL NWH FWD MRM MAH IMD MLD MCE PEA SWK MND DCG RCR LYL LCM IIN ASB AMM CCV 3.96 3.80 12.27 3.15 0.82 2.54 2.25 3.48 0.41 0.34 22.66 2.76 1.98 7.14 0.95 2.97 1.70 1.08 0.62 Sub-Total GRAND TOTAL 1,236 1,060 733 724 634 529 348 268 149 79 2,094 462 297 276 65 478 330 262 248 10,273 51,937 Contract Drilling Contract mining Accomodation Oil & Gas Services Contract mining Drilling Supplies Contract mining Oil & Gas Services Remote Pow er Contract Drilling Construction Construction Engineer. & Constr. Engineer. & Constr. Engineer. & Constr. Telecommunications Civil and Military Vessels Telecommunications Unsecured Finance Buy Buy Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Buy Accumulate Speculative Buy 0 Buy Accumulate Buy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Ticker Last Price* M. CAP (A$m ) Status Hartleys Research Recom m endation Oil & Gas Conventional Oil & Gas Woodside Petroleum Ltd Nexus Energy Ltd Tap Oil Ltd Cooper Energy Ltd Otto Energy Ltd Pancontinental Oil and Gas NL Carnarvon Petroleum Ltd FAR Ltd Amadeus Energy Ltd WPL NXS TAP COE OEL PCL CVN FAR AMU WHN HOG SUR AUT SSN EPG TSV EMR AKK 35.23 0.19 0.83 0.54 0.13 0.16 0.14 0.04 0.22 0.05 0.18 0.02 3.37 0.13 0.24 0.01 0.04 0.03 Sub-Total 28,384 252 200 157 142 133 96 92 66 60 35 22 1,387 218 47 36 28 18 31,374 Major Developer / Explorer Producer / Explorer Producer / Explorer Explorer / Producer Explorer Producer / Explorer Explorer Producer / Explorer Explorer Producer / Explorer Explorer / Producer Producer / Developer Developer / Producer Producer / Explorer Developer Producer / Appraisal Producer / Appraisal Buy Speculative Buy Buy Buy Buy Speculative Buy Accumulate Speculative Buy Neutral Speculative Buy Buy Speculative Buy Reduce Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Speculative Buy Nam e Ticker Last Price* M. CAP (A$m ) Status Hartleys Research Recom m endation

10. Focus Minerals Ltd 11. Tanami Gold NL 12. ABM Resources NL 13. YTC Resources Limited 14. Cerro Resources NL 15. Emmerson Resources Limited 16. Mutiny Gold Limited 17. Canyon Resources Limited 18. Cortona Resources Limited 19. Augur Resources Ltd 20. Southern Gold Limited 21. Geopacific Resources NL 22. Independence Group NL 23. Aviva Corporation Limited 24. Ausquest Limited 25. Silver Sw an Group Ltd Iron Ore 26. Atlas Iron Limited 27. Centaurus Metals Ltd Uranium 28. Peninsula Energy Ltd Other m etals 29. Kasbah Resources Limited 30. Shaw River Manganese Limited 31. Hazelw ood Resources Ltd

10. WHL Energy Ltd 11. Haw kley Oil and Gas Ltd 12. Sun Resources NL Non Conventional Oil & Gas 13. Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd 14. Samson Oil & Gas Ltd 15. European Gas Ltd 16. Transerv Energy Ltd 17. Emerald Oil and Gas NL 18. Austin Exploration Ltd

Diversified Base / Precious Metals

10. Sw ick Mining Services Ltd 11. Monadelphous Group Limited 12. Decmil Group Limited 13. RCR Tomlinson Ltd 14. Lycopodium Limited 15. LogiCamms Limited Other Industrial Com panies

Resource Services - Labour Intensive

Sub-Total

10,290

16. iiNet Limited 17. Austal Limited 18. Amcom Telecommunications Limited 19. Cash Converters Internat. Limited 68.

Source: IRESS, Hartleys Research. * 6 Mar 2012

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HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY

Research
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Institutional Sales
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Corporate Finance
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Wealth Management
Nicola Bond Bradley Booth Adrian Brant Nathan Bray Sven Burrell Simon Casey Tony Chien Travis Clark David Cross Nicholas Draper John Featherby Ben Fleay James Gatti John Georgiades John Goodlad Andrew Gribble David Hainsworth Neil Inglis Murray Jacob Bradley Knight Gavin Lehmann Shane Lehmann Steven Loxley Andrew Macnaughtan Scott Metcalf David Michael Damir Mikulic Jamie Moullin Chris Munro Michael Munro Ian Parker Ian Plowman Margaret Radici Charlie Ransom Elliott (CEO)Rowton Conlie Salvemini David Smyth Greg Soudure Sonya Soudure Dirk Vanderstruyf Alex Wallis Marlene White Samuel Williams

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Hartleys Recommendation Categories

Buy Accumulate Share price appreciation anticipated. Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is not as attractive as a Buy. Alternatively, for the share price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a price level at which it may become a Buy. Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly balanced. It is anticipated to be unlikely that there will be gains over the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of some price weakness over that period. Significant price depreciation anticipated. No recommendation. Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that, on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to significant share price reduction. Consequently, the investment is considered high risk.

Neutral Reduce / Take profits Sell No Rating Speculative Buy

Disclaimer/Disclosure The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (Hartleys), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities. Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising from any advice mentioned in publications to clients. Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued. Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law.

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