Resorts World Sentosa, Singapore

4th General Insurance Conference 31 May - 1 June 2012

2011 was a mixed year for the general insurance industry in the region. While Singapore motor insurers made their first profit in several years, the unprecedented scale of natural catastrophes in Asia has generally meant losses for much of the rest of the industry. It is now more important than ever that general insurance professionals in the region are aware of the issues and trends facing the industry. The conference this year includes a good mix of speakers covering both technical and non-technical subjects by actuaries and other insurance professionals. Session topics include: Motor Pricing, Catastrophe Modelling, Technical and Professional topics as well as a discussion on trends in international capital requirements. While the conference would be most beneficial to members of the Singapore Actuarial Society and actuaries working in the region, the conference is also open to all other general insurance professionals. There is a good mix of technical and non-technical papers so anyone with an interest in General Insurance issues in the region will benefit from attending.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) administers Financial Training Scheme (FTS) grants to financial sector organisations that sponsor eligible Singapore based participants to training programmes that meet qualifying criteria. For more details, please visit www.mas.gov.sg or contact the MAS via fsdf@mas.gov.sg .

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

REGISTRATION FORM
DATE : 31 May - 1 June 2012 VENUE : Resorts World Sentosa
Aquarius Rooms 1-3, Level 1 Resorts World Convention Centre PERSONAL PARTICULARS
Name Position : : Email address : Contact No. :

Singapore Actuarial Society

Company : Address : [ ] Non Member

Member Membership Class : [ ] SAS Membership No.: Name on Badge:

REGISTRATION FEES (please ) Early Bird Registration and Payment (by 18 May 2012) SAS-Member - Fellow or Associate [ ] SGD 500.00 - Ordinary [ ] SGD 400.00 - Studentincludes: handout materials, refreshments, lunch and dinner. SGD 25.00 [ ] Registration fee Non-Member PAYMENT METHOD (please ) [ ] SGD 600.00

Standard Registration (by 28 May 2012) [ ] SGD 600.00 [ ] SGD 500.00 (first 20 registrations only) [ ] SGD 700.00

[ ] - I enclose a Singapore Dollar Cheque / International Bank Draft payable to Singapore Actuarial Society. Cheque/Draft No.:

Please send cheque payment to: Singapore Actuarial Society 81 Clemenceau Avenue #04-15/16 UE SQUARE, Suite 06 Singapore 239917
[ ] - Delegates may pay by telegraphic transfer into the account of the Singapore Actuarial Society.

Singapore Actuarial Societys banking details are : Account Name : Singapore Actuarial Society Bank Code : 7171 Branch Code : 001 Account Code : 001-019506-9 Swift-Code : DBSSSGSG (Please note that all bank charges are to be paid by the sender) Dietary preference [ ] Halal [ ] Vegetarian [ ] No preference [ ] Yes [ ] No [ ] Yes [ ] No

Will you be attending lunch on Thursday 31 May 2012? Will you be attending lunch on Friday 1 June 2012 ?

Will you be attending the gala dinner, including activities and lucky door prizes, on 31 May 2012? [ ] Yes [ ] No (please ) Signature & Date :

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

DATE: 31st May 1st June 2012 VENUE: Resorts World Sentosa

MISCELLANEOUS

Singapore Actuarial Society

SPONSORS
A special thank-you to our sponsors this year: - Aon Benfield: Main Sponsor - IPS Group: Exclusive Recruitment firm sponsor and sponsor of the pre-dinner drinks on Thursday night - ACR,KPMG, MSIG, RMS and Swiss Re

LANGUAGE
The Seminar is conducted in English.

TIMING
Registration will commence each day at 8:15am with the conference to start at 9am and finish at 6pm. Dinner on the Thursday will commence at 7pm with drinks from 6:30pm.

CANCELLATION POLICY
All cancellations should be made by sending an email to patsy@actuaries.org.sg. An acknowledgement of the cancellation will be emailed to you. No refunds will be made for cancellation after 27th May 2012.
The Society reserves the right to cancel the seminar if conditions warrant. In the event of such cancellation, registration fees will be refunded in full. We are not responsible for any discounted airfares or hotel penalties that a delegate may incur due to cancellation.

CPD (CONTINUING PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT)

This event does count towards CPD.

WEATHER AND ATTIRE

The average temperature in Singapore is around 25 to 30 degrees Celsius. Business casual attire is recommended for the seminar.

VISA REQUIREMENT
Please check with your travel agent.

HOTEL RESERVATIONS
The Resorts World Sentosa, Singapore has provided a limited number of deluxe rooms at a special conference rate. If you would like more information or to make a reservation, please email patsy@actuaries.org.sg to express your interest as rooms are strictly limited and will be allocated in order of interest. Resorts World Sentosa 39 Artillery Avenue, Sentosa Singapore 099958 T : 6577 8888 F : 6577 7770

www.rwsentosa.com

For more information on the conference and registration, please contact: Ms Patsy Lau at (65) 96477577 or email at patsy@actuaries.org.sg.

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

DATE: 31st May 1st June 2012 VENUE: Resorts World Sentosa

SPEAKERS

Singapore Actuarial Society

Opening Keynote Address

Gaelle Olivier, CEO AXA Asia General Insurance

Global Advances in Pricing

Peter Lee, Towers Watson Predictive models are being used everywhere you look. In this presentation, Peter will share with us the recent global advances in pricing, as well as the problem with prediction. The presentation will cover the following areas: - Algorithms and rise of the machine - Predictive modeling & algorithms in General Insurance

Developments in Motor Insurance Opportunities & Threats in Asia

Roshan Perera , NMG Consulting This presentation will focus on the Motor insurance product and how it is evolving around the world. From Telematics in South Africa, to Aggregators in the UK, to On the spot claims settlement in Sri Lanka, this presentation examines how Motor insurance has become increasingly commoditised and what insurers are doing to survive in these extremely competitive markets. We will consider the opportunities and threats that insurance companies in Asia face in underwriting comprehensive and third party Motor insurance policies and the extent to which statistical techniques including predictive modelling are being utilised to identify profitable segments within Motor portfolios.

Trends in Singapore Motor Claims - SAS Working Party

Frederic Weber, Chair of Working Party The purpose of the working party is to better understand the recent trends in motor insurance in Singapore such as claims inflation, frequency and severity by loss type, costs of spare part etc. This will be an update on the progress of the working party to-date and plans for the future.
The Changing Landscape in Motor Insurance Business in Asia: A Snapshot of Innovations and Developments Adrian Cheung, Direct Asia & Jack Jiang, Milliman This presentation will look at the development in the motor market in Asia; Challenges for Actuaries and potential future developments by looking at developments in other parts of the world. It will also examine some of the recent developments in the motor insurance market in Asia and the implications for actuaries.

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

DATE: 31st May 1st June 2012 VENUE: Resorts World Sentosa

SPEAKERS

Singapore Actuarial Society

Motor Insurance in Malaysia

Gary Hoo, JPWall Consulting This presentation will give an overview of the Motor insurance claims experience in Malaysia in recent years, the problems and solutions that have been discussed and proposed (whether implemented or not), along with the thoughts on how to move towards detariffication in 2016 and the crucial role of general insurance actuaries in the entire process, starting now.

Technical Issues - SAS Working Party

Colin Priest, Chair of Working Party The working party is exploring ideas about fitting the tail of severity distributions. This will include: Why maximum likelihood estimates underestimate the risk, How to allow for parameter risk, How to allow for model risk, and Creating an Excel tool for SAS members to use

Stochastic Claims Reserving

Kelvin Hii, NMG, Actuarial Society of Malaysia This presentation demonstrates how to implement stochastic methods for claims reserving and rate making in spreadsheet. It is intended to be a tutorial and teaching paper for practicing actuaries working in general insurance area especially in Asia region. The presentation will cover step by step demonstration on how to implement in spreadsheet the Mack Method, Bootstrap Method and Over Dispersion Poisson (ODP) Method for Stochastic Claims Reserving using the famous 1981 to 1990 USA Automatic Facultative General Liability data, and the Generalized Linear Model (GLM), essentially ODP, Method for Rate Making using Malaysian Motor Data.

Locations Matter
Xavier Conort, Gear Analytics Locations matter. True for real estate, species distribution and also insurance! The presentation will review 3 techniques to incorporate geo spatial effects in one's predictive model. The 2 first techniques were recently presented in CAS seminars by Guszcza (CAS Annual Meeting, 2011) and Sengupta (CAS Ratemaking & Product Management Seminar,2010). Guszcza proposed to incorporate geo-spatial smoothing with Generalized Additive Models while Sengupta shows that Simultaneous Autoregressive (SAR) Error Models produce better accuracy. Using the same data as Guzscza and Sengupta (the California Housing), we will show that a Machine Learning technique, called Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs, also called Gradient Boosting Machine) provides comparable results to SAR with less modelling efforts and higher performance can be achieved by modelling BRTs on SARs residuals.

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

DATE: 31st May 1st June 2012 VENUE: Resorts World Sentosa

SPEAKERS

Singapore Actuarial Society

Thailand Flood Experience

Philip Lui & Verne Baker, Deloitte This presentation will cover mainly the reserving side, in particular: Impact of the event to insurance market Unfolding of the event and practical / logistical issues Reserving issues such as data limitations, approach and methodologies, key observations, reinsurance responses; Lessons for the future.

Catastrophe Risk Assessment in Asia Current Trends to Future Solutions

Mrs. Roopa Joshi, MS Frontier The presentation will briefly discuss the current trends in catastrophe modeling in Asia with respect to model availability. It will re-look at 2011s cat events and what message they give to our industry with a special focus on Flood risk and losses. The presentation will look at the future course of action that will help the industry sail through similar or even bigger catastrophes we are sitting on. Broadly, the presentation will address on Cat Risk Assessment in Asia Modeled vs. Un-Modeled Perils; Cat Events 2011; Impact of Catastrophes on Asian Industry with a special focus on Flood Risk; Whats stored more for Asia in terms of Nat Cat Risk; Future Solutions with the Industry.

Weather based triggers

Pane Stojanovski, RMS This paper relates to issues and solutions for designing weather based parametric triggers for agricultural insurance in Asia.

Singapore Stress Test SAS Working Party

Matthew Maguire, Chair of Working Party This session will explore the objectives of the Stress Test exercise with reference to the views of the current certifying actuaries, the MAS and international practice.

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

DATE: 31st May 1st June 2012 VENUE: Resorts World Sentosa

SPEAKERS

Singapore Actuarial Society

Liability Valuation Guidance Note SAS Working Party

William Song, Chair of Working Party The MAS has issued a Circular to the principal officers of general insurers and reinsurers in March 2011. The Circular highlights some common areas of shortcomings and better practices in preparation of actuarial investigation reports for general insurance businesses. This presentation will focus on the findings from the MAS Circular and response from Approved Actuaries; Possible areas of improvement in actuarial reserving and reporting; A comparison of the existing standard and guidance on reserving in Singapore to their counterparts in other markets such as Australia; Potential challenges faced by Approved Actuaries in addressing MAS requirements this may be in the form of a survey on Approved Actuaries The objective of this presentation is to stimulate some debate amongst the profession on the general standard of actuarial reporting and communication in the area of liability valuation, which helps to identify areas of potential improvement.

Reinsurance as capital - how do you optimise its structure?

Hussain Ahmad & Michael Fung, Towers Watson With the advent of Risk Based Capital, buying reinsurance as a tool to manage capital is becoming more prevalent among insurers. Actuaries involved in capital and reinsurance buying are often asked to optimise their firm's reinsurance structure. Can reinsurance optimisation really be achieved? What are the issues that needed to be considered when optimising reinsurance? This session discusses the many issues faced by company when optimising their reinsurance structure and how actuaries prepare for some of the challenges and add value to their company.

Strategic Asset Management and Optimisation

Craig Turnbull, Barrie & Hibbert This presentation will discuss strategic asset management, asset-liability modelling and asset allocation optimisation in the context of general insurance.
The presentation will consider two key aspects of asset management analysis that can be impacted by general insurance liabilities: liability-driven investment objectives (for example, reflecting the accounting treatment of general insurance business); and liability-driven investment risk metrics (reflecting the key risk characteristics of general insurance liabilities and their complex links with economic and financial market variables). These effects will be analysed using case studies and modelling examples.

GENERAL INSURANCE CONFERENCE

DATE: 31st May 1st June 2012 VENUE: Resorts World Sentosa

SPEAKERS

Singapore Actuarial Society

Black Swan Scenarios

David Maneval, Aon Benfield The future of risk is like an iceberg. What we see before our naked eyes is only part of the story. In fact, we are most vulnerable to risks we didnt prepare for. So, how do we navigate the risks which lie beyond? The presentation will look at the need to routinely monitor emerging risks to identify potential hazards. ERM Raymond Cheung, Chartis Many ERM presentations today speak a lot on how companies can be empowered to balance risks with rewards as well as people with processes, yet very few presentations actually show us how the ERM process is actually being implemented in practice. In this presentation, I will attempt to bring the audience through the journey of setting up an ERM framework from scratch in a large and complex organization together with the pains, failures and lessons learnt so far in each of the following ERM processes:Risk Appetite Framework, Risk Identification, Risk Measurement, Risk Modeling, Risk reporting

KPMG ERM Presentation to be advised

John Tan & Martin Noble, KPMG The regulatory and business drivers of ERM and the implication son the General Insurance sector with both a regional and local perspective.

Solvency II Changing the Landscape of Insurance Asset Strategy

Alex Yu-Pei, Aon Benfield Solvency II changes the way insurers think about risk, capital, volatility and value generation. Under Solvency II significant changes to investment strategy are necessary to achieve an attractive return on equity under the Standard Formula. This study developed a case study of new asset allocation structure for a non-life company from the Solvency II standard formula perspective.

Regulatory Solvency Assessment in the US

Bob Conger, Past President of the Casualty Actuarial Society, Chair of 2014 International Conference of Actuaries In the United States, regulators use a multi-faceted approach to evaluating the solvency of general insurance companies. The approaches, methods, and tools continue to evolve. US regulators utilize (a) extensive and transparent disclosure of detailed current and historical financial and related information that is reported in accordance with specific statutory requirements; (b) risk-based capital calculations; (c) regulatory financial examinations. Increasingly, regulators will be examining the company's own ERM evaluation and quantification of its key risks, and its ability to respond to and withstand those risks. This presentation will outline the US regulatory approach to solvency assessment, with a particular emphasis on broad concepts that will be of interest to actuaries who serve an internal or external role in analysing risk and solvency issues for general insurance companies in any country.