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Estimation: Asst. Prof. Dr. Mohammad Alzubi
Estimation: Asst. Prof. Dr. Mohammad Alzubi
CHAPTER
Presented By
Asst. Prof. Dr. Mohammad
Alzubi
1. Point and Confidence Interval Estimates for the proportion.
2
Point and Interval Estimates
Suppose we want to estimate a parameter, such as p or µ, based
on a finite sample of data. There are two main methods:
1. Point estimate: Summarize the sample by a single number
that is an estimate of the population parameter;
2. Interval estimate: A range of values within which, we believe,
the true parameter lies with high probability.
3
Now let’s turn to interval estimates. The simplest way to intro-
duce this is through an example.
4
Part I: Sampling Distribution
• Sample Statistics are used to estimate
Population Parameters
ex: X is an estimate of the population mean, μ
• Problems:
μ
x i
x
x i
N n
where:
μ = Population mean
x = sample mean
xi = Values in the population or sample
N = Population size
n = sample size
9
Example
10
Sampling Errors
12
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
• Assume there is a population …
D
• Population size N=4 A B C
• Random variable, x,
is age of individuals
• Values of x: 18, 20,
22, 24 (years)
13
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
μ
x i
P(x)
N .3
18 20 22 24 .2
21
4 .1
σ
(x i μ) 2
2.236
18
A B
20
C
22
D
24 x
N
Uniform Distribution
14
Developing a
Sampling Distribution
(continued)
Now consider all possible samples of size n=2
st nd
1 2 Observation
Obs 18 20 22 24 16 Sample Means
μx
x
18 19 21 24
i
21
N 16
σx
( x i μ x
) 2
.2 .2
.1 .1
0
18 20 22 24 x
0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
_x
A B C D
18
If the Population is Normal
(THEOREM 6-1)
20
Finite Population Correction
• Apply the Finite Population Correction if:
– the sample is large relative to the population
(n is greater than 5% of N)
and…
– Sampling is without replacement
(x μ)
Then Z
σ Nn
n N 1
21
Sampling Distribution Properties
Normal Population
• μx μ Distribution
x μ x
(i.e. is unbiased )
Normal Sampling
Distribution
(has the same mean)
μx
x
22
Sampling Distribution Properties
(continued)
Smaller sample
size
μ x
23
If the Population is not Normal
• We can apply the Central Limit Theorem:
– Even if the population is not normal,
– …sample means from the population will be
approximately normal as long as the sample size is
large enough
– …and the sampling distribution will have
σ
μx μ σx
and n
24
Central Limit Theorem
the sampling
As the n↑
distribution
sample
becomes
size gets
almost normal
large
regardless of
enough…
shape of
population
x
25
If the Population is not Normal
(continued)
Population Distribution
Sampling distribution
properties:
Central Tendency
μx μ
μ x
Variation Sampling Distribution
σ (becomes normal as n increases)
σx Larger
n Smaller sample
size
sample
size
(Sampling with
replacement)
μx x
26
How Large is Large Enough?
27
Example
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Example
(continued)
Solution :
7.8 - 8 μ - μ 8.2 - 8
P(7.8 μ x 8.2) P
x
3 σ 3
36 n 36
P(-0.4 Z 0.4) 0.3108
30
Sampling Distribution of p
• Approximated by a
Sampling Distribution
P(p)
normal distribution if: .3
– np 5 .2
.1
n(1 p) 5 0
0 .2 .4 .6 8 1 p
where p(1 p)
μp p σp
and n
(where p = population proportion)
31
z-Value for Proportions
Standardize p to a z value with the formula:
pp pp
Z
σp p(1 p)
n
• If sampling is without replacement and
n is greater than 5% of the
p(1 p) Nn
population size, then σmustp
use the σp
finite population correction factor: n N 1
32
Example
33
Example
(continued)
• if p = .4 and n = 200, what is
P(.40 ≤ p ≤ .45) ?
p(1 p) .4(1 .4)
Find :σ
p
σp .03464
n 200
Convert to
.40 .40 .45 .40
standard normal:
P(.40 p .45) P Z
.03464 .03464
P(0 z 1.44)
34