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Binomial Distribution and Applications
Binomial Distribution and Applications
and Applications
Binomial Probability Distribution
A binomial random variable X is defined to the number
of “successes” in n independent trials where the
P(“success”) = p is constant.
Notation: X ~ BIN(n,p)
In the definition above notice the following conditions
need to be satisfied for a binomial experiment:
1. There is a fixed number of n trials carried out.
2. The outcome of a given trial is either a “success”
or “failure”.
3. The probability of success (p) remains constant
from trial to trial.
4. The trials are independent, the outcome of a trial is
not affected by the outcome of any other trial.
Binomial Distribution
If X ~ BIN(n, p), then
n x n x n!
P( X x) p (1 p) p x (1 p) n x x 0,1,..., n.
x x!(n x)!
where
n! n (n 1) (n 2) ... 1, also 0! 1 and 1! 1
n
" n choose x" the number of ways to obtain
x
x " successes" in n trials.
P(" success" ) p
Binomial Distribution
If X ~ BIN(n, p), then
n x n x n!
P( X x) p (1 p) p x (1 p) n x x 0,1,..., n.
x x!(n x)!
E.g. when n = 3 and p = .50 there are 8 possible equally
likely outcomes (e.g. flipping a coin)
SSS SSF SFS FSS SFF FSF FFS FFF
X=3 X=2 X=2 X=2 X=1 X=1 X=1 X=0
P(X=3)=1/8, P(X=2)=3/8, P(X=1)=3/8, P(X=0)=1/8
Now let’s use binomial probability formula instead…
Binomial Distribution
If X ~ BIN(n, p), then
n x n x n!
P( X x) p (1 p) p x (1 p) n x x 0,1,..., n.
x x!(n x)!
E.g. when n = 3, p = .50 find P(X = 2)
SSF
3 3! 3! 3 2 1
3 ways SFS
2 2!(3 2)! 2!1! (2 1) 1 FSS
3 2
P( X 2) .5 (.5)32 3(.52 )(.51 ) .375 or 3
2 8
Example: Treatment of Kidney
Cancer
Suppose we have n = 40 patients who will be
receiving an experimental therapy which is
believed to be better than current treatments
which historically have had a 5-year survival rate
of 20%, i.e. the probability of 5-year survival is
p = .20.
Thus the number of patients out of 40 in our
study surviving at least 5 years has a binomial
distribution, i.e. X ~ BIN(40,.20).
Results and “The Question”
Suppose that using the new treatment we find
that 16 out of the 40 patients survive at least 5
years past diagnosis.
Q: Does this result suggest that the new therapy
has a better 5-year survival rate than the current,
i.e. is the probability that a patient survives at
least 5 years greater than .20 or a 20% chance
when treated using the new therapy?
What do we consider in answering
the question of interest?
We essentially ask ourselves the following:
If we assume that new therapy is no better than
the current what is the probability we would see
these results by chance variation alone?
= .002936 YIPES!
Example: Treatment of Kidney Cancer
X ~ BIN(40,.20), find the probability that 16 or more
patients survive at least 5 years.
USE COMPUTER!
Binomial Probability calculator in JMP are computed
probabilities
automatically for greater than
or equal to and less than or
equal to x.
Enter
n = sample size
x = observed # of “successes”
p = probability of “success”
Example: Treatment of Kidney
Cancer
X ~ BIN(40,.20), find the probability that 16 or more
patients survive at least 5 years.
USE COMPUTER!
Binomial Probability calculator in JMP
1 2 1 -1 16 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 17 0 3 3
3 0 0 0 18 2 3 1
4 1 0 -1 19 2 3 1
5 3 3 0 20 3 2 -1
6 1 1 0 21 0 4 4
7 1 3 2 22 0 3 3
8 0 0 0 23 1 2 1
9 0 0 0 24 0 3 3
10 1 0 -1 25 0 2 2
11 1 1 0 26 1 1 0
12 1 1 0 27 3 3 0
13 2 1 -1 28 1 2 1
14 3 1 -2 29 0 2 2
15 0 0 0
Sign Test
The sign test looks at the number of (+) and (-)
differences amongst the nonzero paired
differences.
A preponderance of +’s or –’s can indicate that
some type of change has occurred.
If in reality there is no change as a result of
infusion we expect +’s and –’s to be equally
likely to occur, i.e. P(+) = P(-) = .50 and the
number of each observed follows a binomial
distribution.
Example: Sign Test
Given these results do we have evidence
that performance scores of patients
generally improves following infusion?
Before (B) After (A) Difference Before (B) After (A) Difference
Patient Infusion Infusion (A – B) Patient Infusion Infusion (A – B)
1 2 1 -1 - 16 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 17 0 3 3 +
3 0 0 0 18 2 3 1 +
4 1 0 -1 - 19 2 3 1 +
5 3 3 0 20 3 2 -1 -
6 1 1 0 21 0 4 4 +
7 1 3 2 + 22 0 3 3 +
8 0 0 0 23 1 2 1 +
9 0 0 0 24 0 3 3 +
10 1 0 -1 - 25 0 2 2 +
11 1 1 0 26 1 1 0
12 1 1 0 27 3 3 0
13 2 1 -1 - 28 1 2 1 +
14 3 1 -2 - 29 0 2 2 +
15 0 0 0
Example: Sign Test
If there is truly no change in performance as a result of
infusion the number of +’s has a binomial distribution
with n = 17 and
p = P(+) = .50.
We have observed 11 +’s amongst the 17 non-zero
performance differences.
How likely are we to see 11 or more +’s out 17?
P(X > 11) = .166 for a binomial n = 17, p = .50
There is 16.6% chance we would see this many
improvements by dumb luck alone, therefore we are not
convinced that infusion leads to improvement
(Remember less than .05 or a 5% chance is what we are
looking for “statistical significance”)
Example 2: Sign Test
Resting Energy Expenditure (REE) for Patient with
Cystic Fibrosis
A researcher believes that patients with cystic fibrosis
(CF) expend greater energy during resting than those
without CF. To obtain a fair comparison she matches
13 patients with CF to 13 patients without CF on the
basis of age, sex, height, and weight. She then
measured there REE for each pair of subjects and
compared the results.
Example 2: Sign Test
There are
11 +’s & 2 –’s
out of n = 13
paired differences.
Example 2: Sign Test