Nelson Rules of Control Chart Monitoring

Rule 1: One point is more than 3 standard

deviations from the mean (outlier)
Pattern Description: Large shifts from the average
Probable Causes: 1. New person doing the job
2. Wrong setup
3. Measurement error
4. Process step skipped
5. Process step not completed
6. Power failure
7. Equipment breakdown

Rule 2: Nine (or more) points in a row are on the

same side of the mean (shift)
Pattern Description: Small shifts from the average
Probable Causes: 1. Raw material change
2. Change in work instruction
3. Different measurement device/calibration
4. Different shift
5. Person gains greater skills in doing the job
6. Change in maintenance program
7. Change in setup procedure
Nelson Rules of Control Chart Monitoring
Rule 3: Six (or more) points in a row are
continually increasing (or decreasing) (trend)
Pattern Description: Trends
Probable Causes: 1. Tooling wear
2. Temperature effects (cooling, heating)

Rule 4: Fourteen (or more) points in a row

alternate in direction, increasing then decreasing
(bimodal, 2 or more factors in data set)
Pattern Description: Over-control
Probable Causes: 1. Tampering by operator
2. Alternating raw materials
Nelson Rules of Control Chart Monitoring
Rule 5: Two (or three) out of three points in a row
are more than 2 standard deviations from the
mean in the same direction (shift)
Pattern Description: Large shifts from the average
Probable Causes: 1. New person doing the job
2. Wrong setup
3. Measurement error
4. Process step skipped
5. Process step not completed
6. Power failure
7. Equipment breakdown

Rule 6: Four (or five) out of five points in a row are

more than 1 standard deviation from the mean in
the same direction (shift or trend)
Pattern Description: Small shifts from the average
Probable Causes: 1. Raw material change
2. Change in work instruction
3. Different measurement device/calibration
4. Different shift
5. Person gains greater skills in doing the job
6. Change in maintenance program
7. Change in setup procedure
Nelson Rules of Control Chart Monitoring
Rule 7: Fifteen points in a row are all within 1
standard deviation of the mean on either side of the
mean (reduced variation or measurement issue)
Pattern Description: Stratifications
Probable Causes: 1. More than one process present (e.g.
shifts, machines, raw materials)

Rule 8: Eight points in a row exist with none within

1 standard deviation of the mean and the points
are in both directions from the mean (bimodal, 2 or
more factors in data set)
Pattern Description: Mixtures
Probable Causes: 1. More than one process present (e.g.
shifts, machines, raw materials)