POPULATION DYNAMICS

Zoo 511 Ecology of Fishes 2009

Today’s goals
 Understand why and how population dynamics are
important in fisheries ecology
 Gain experience in a variety of mark-recapture
methods
What are population dynamics?
“A population is a group of fish of the same
species that are alive in a defined area at a
given time” (Wootton 1990)

Population dynamics: changes in the number of

individuals in a population or the vital rates of a
population over time
Major role of ecology: understand change

Bluegill Rusty
250 1400
1200
200
1000
Bluegill catch

Rusty catch
150 800

100 600
400
50
200
0 0
Major role of ecology: understand change

Myers et al. 2007

 Why study population dynamics?

 Often most relevant response

to ecosystem
manipulation/perturbation
 Endangered species
(population viability analysis,
PVA)
 Fisheries management
(sustainable yield)
 Understand ecosystem
dynamics and ecological
processes
 Why study population dynamics?
Atlantic salmon PVA
 Often most relevant response From Legault 2004
to ecosystem
manipulation/perturbation
 Endangered species
(population viability analysis,
PVA)
 Fisheries management
(sustainable yield)
 Understand ecosystem
dynamics and ecological
processes
PVA: Modeling the probability that a
population will go extinct or drop below
the minimum viable population size
within a given number of years.
 Why study population dynamics?

 Often most relevant response

to ecosystem
manipulation/perturbation
 Endangered species
(population viability analysis,
PVA)
 Fisheries management
(sustainable yield)
 Understand ecosystem
dynamics and ecological
processes

from Hilborn and Walters 1992

 Why study population dynamics?
 Often most relevant response
to ecosystem
manipulation/perturbation
 Endangered species
(population viability analysis,
PVA)
 Fisheries management
(sustainable yield)
 Understand ecosystem
dynamics and ecological
processes
When do ecological shifts occur?
Are they stable?
 How do populations change?
Nt+1 = Nt + B – D + I – E Immigration

Stocking
 B = births
 D = deaths
Births Deaths
 I = immigration Population

 E = emigration
Angling

Emigration
 Density Dependence

Rate of
Change
(per capita)

Population Density
Rate of population increase
per capita annual increase

Density independent

Density dependent

N
 Small group exercise
Population starts at low density.
What happens to density over time under
density-dependent rate of increase?
What happens if rate of increase is density-
independent?
Density-dependent Density-independent
Population

Population
density

density

Time Time
Logistic population growth

dN/dt=r0N(1-N/K)

r0 = maximum rate of increase

per capita annual increase

K= carrying capacity
r0

N K
 R-selected vs. K-selected
r-selected K-selected
Environment variable and/or constant and/or
unpredictable predictable
Lifespan short long
Growth rate fast slow
Fecundity high low
Natural mortality high low
Population dynamics unstable stable
 How do populations change?
Nt+1 = Nt + B – D + I – E Immigration

Stocking
 B = births
 D = deaths
Births Deaths
 I = immigration Population

 E = emigration
Angling

Emigration
Survival
 Predation
 Disease “Natural Mortality”
 Prey availability
 Competition for food
 Harvest Age 1 Age 2 Age 3
Year 1 N1,1 N1,2 N1,3
S
Year 2 N2,1 N2,2 N2,3
Year 3 N3,1 N3,2 N3,3
Survival
 Eggs and larvae suffer the largest losses

Egg HATCH Larva Viable & Competent

Recruit!
Not Fertile
Starvation
Inviable
Eaten
Eaten

Other

2 cohorts each produce 10,000,000 eggs

90.5% survivorship/day yields 24,787 survivors at 60 days
95.1% survivorship/day yields 497,871 survivors at 60 days
Recruitment
 Can mean many things!
 Number of young-of-year (YOY) fish entering
population in a year
 Number of fish achieving age/size at which they are
vulnerable to fishing gear
 Somewhat arbitrary, varies among populations
 Major goal of fish population dynamics:
understanding the relationship between stock size
and recruitment
What determines recruitment?
-Stock size (number and size of females)
 Density-independent

Ricker
What determines recruitment?

Beverton-Holt

spawning stock biomass (SSB)

From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.
 Density-independent

Ricker
What determines recruitment?

Beverton-Holt

spawning stock biomass (SSB)

From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.
 Density-independent

Ricker
What determines recruitment?

Beverton-Holt

spawning stock biomass (SSB)

From: Wootton (1998). Ecology of teleost fishes.
The problem?
 Stochasticity = variable recruitment!
From: Cushing (1996). Towards
a science of recruitment in fish
populations
Highly variable recruitment results
in naturally very variable catches

From: Jennings, Kaiser and Reynolds (2001). Marine Fisheries Ecology

 Population Abundance
 On rare occasions, abundance can be measured directly
 Smallenclosed systems
 Migration
Catch per unit effort (CPUE)
 Very coarse and very common index of abundance
1
Catch= 4 fish

CPUE=4/48=0.083
Effort= 4 nets for
12 hours each=
48 net hours

2
Catch=8 fish
CPUE=8/48=0.167
Effort= 4 nets for
12 hours each= We conclude population 2 is
48 net hours
2X larger than population 1
Population abundance
 Density estimates (#/area)
 Eggs estimated with quadrats
 Pelagic larvae sampled with modified plankton nets

 Juvenile and adult fish with nets, traps, hook and line, or
electrofishing
 Density is then used as index of abundance, or
multiplied by habitat area to get abundance
estimate
Depletion methods
Closed population
Vulnerability constant for each pass
Collection efficiency constant
Often not simple linear regression

N *

Time (or pass)

Mark recapture
M=5 C=4 R=2

N=population size=????
Modified Petersen method

 Assumptions:
 Closed population
 Equal catchability in first sample

 Marking does NOT influence catchability

 Marked and unmarked fish mix randomly
 Mortality rates are equal

 Marks are not lost

How to avoid violation of
assumptions?
 Two sampling gears
 Distribute marked individuals widely; allow time for
mixing
 Can be separated into different groups
 Length

 Sex

 Geographic regions
How many to mark/recapture?
 Requires some knowledge of population size!
 Trade-off between precision and sample size
 Population
of 10,000: Mark 400 and examine 600 for
+/- 50% OR mark 1,000 and examine 1,500 for +/-
10%
 Trade-off between marked and recapture sample
size
 Population
of 10,000: Mark 1,000 and examine1,500
OR Mark 4,500 and examine 500
Schnabel method

 Closed population
 Equal catchabilty in first sample
 Marking does NOT influence catchability
 Multiple recaptures
 Easier to pick up on violation of assumptions
Jolly Seber method
 Open populations
 Allows estimation of births and deaths
 Three or more sampling periods needed
 Equal catchability of all individuals in all samples
 Equal probability of survival
 Marks are not lost
 Sampling time is negligible compared to intervals
between samples
Importance of variability
 Confidence intervals
 Long-term frequency, not probablity!
 95% confidence intervals  if you repeated
procedure an infinite number of times, 95% of the time
the interval you create would contain the “true” value
 Precision vs. accuracy
Accurate, not precise Not accurate, precise Accurate, precise

x x
x x
x x xxxx
x
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x
Lets count some beans!