THE DEVELOPMENT OF

PROBABILITY THEORY: PASCAL,

BERNOULLI, AND LAPLACE

CHAPTER 9
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY

• Branch of
mathematics with the
correspondence
between Blaise
Pascal and Pierre de
Fermat (1654)
 THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY

“ True worth of a chance.

”
• Games of chance and
gambling
CHAPTER 9
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
JOHN GRAUNT

• Statistician and empirical

probabilist
• Founder of the science of
demography, the statistical
study of human populations.
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
JOHN GRAUNT

• Set of statistical inferences

from mass data.
• One of the charter fellows of
Royal Society in London
(1660)
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
JOHN GRAUNT

• Natural and Political

Observations made
upon the Bills of
Mortality.
=mathematical
statistics
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
GAMES OF CHANCE: DICE AND CARDS (GAMBLING)

• Originated in the early stages of human

history.
• Appeared at many places in the world. It is
reasonable to guess that it evolved from
some sort of divination rites, most likely
divination by lot.
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
TARSAL BONE (THE ASTRAGALUS)

• The predecessor of the die,

and the most common
gambling device of early
peoples.
• The six-sided die may have
been obtained from the
astragalus
 THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
GIROLAMO CARDAN

• Most outstanding
mathematician of his
time.
• Probability-a ratio of
equally like events
CHAPTER 9
• Real father of modern
probability theory
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
THE PRECOCITY OF THE YOUNG PASCAL (1623–1662)

• Linked with Fermat as

one of the joint founders of
probability theory
• The greatest might-have-
been in history
THE ORIGINS OF PROBABILITY THEORY
THE PRECOCITY OF THE YOUNG PASCAL (1623–1662)

• Principles of Geometry
• The sum of the angles of
a triangle is two right
angles
• Euclid’s Elements
PASCAL AND THE CYCLOID
Who is Pascal?
• Blaise Pascal was born on June 19, 1
623, in Clermont-Ferrand, France.
• Blaise Pascal was a French mathemat
ician, physicist and religious philosop
her who laid the foundation for the
modern theory of probabilities.
• In the 1640s he invented the Pascali
ne, an early calculator.
PASCAL AND THE CYCLOID
What is Cycloid?

• The cycloid is a special typ

e of parametric curve that i
s traced out by a point on
the circumference of the ci
rcle as it rolls along a strai
ght line.
• In 17th century the cycloid
has been called "The Helen
of Geometers"
DE MÉRÉ'S PROBLEMS OF POINTS

Who is De Méré?
• Chevelier de Mere (1607-1684) was
a gentleman gambler in France.
• De Méré became the self-appointed
mentor of society and devoting his li
fe to the vocation of teaching good
manners.
• He is most well known for his contri
bution to probability. One of the pro
blems he was interested in was calle
d the problem of points.
ARITHMETIC TRIANGLE
What is Arithmetic Triangle?

• The arithmetic triangle is generally known as p

ascal's triangle an infinite numerical table in tri
angular form.
• Pascal's triangle is a set of numbers, arranged
in a triangle, that contains an amazing number
of patterns within it.
• Pascal's triangle is used in the binomial theore
m, a rule that allows you to raise expressions
with two terms, like x+y, to high powers easily.
MATHEMATICAL INDUCTION

• Is a mathematical technique which is used to prove a st

atement, a formula or a theorem for every natural numb
er.
The technique involves two steps to prove a statement, as stated below

Step 1(Base step) − It proves that a statement is true for the initial value.

Step 2(Inductive step) − It proves that if the statement is true for the nth iter
ation (or number n), then it is also true for (n+1)th iteration (or number n+1).
Have you heard of the "Domino Effect"?

Step 1. The first domino falls

Step 2. When any domino falls, the next domin
o falls

So ... all dominos will fall!

That is how Mathematical Induction works.

STRONG INDUCTION

• Is another form of mathematical induction. Through this

induction technique, we can prove that a propositional f
unction, p(n) is true for all positive integers, n, using the
following steps:

Step 1(Base step) − It proves that the initial proposition P(1) true.

Step 2(Inductive step) − It proves that the conditional statement [P(1)∧P(2)∧

P(3)∧⋯∧P(k)]→P(k+1) is true for positive integers k.
 FRANCESCO MAUROLICO’S USE OF
INDUCTION (1949-1575)
• Acknowledge as one of the foremost
Mathematicians of 16th Century
• Born on Sicily
• Ordained Priest
• Professor of Mathematics at Messina
• Short stays in Rome and in Naples, lived his
whole life in his Native Sicily
CHAPTER 9
• Most of his work were not published until his
death
 • During Maurolico’s time, only the first four books of
Appolonius’s Conics, so reconstructed the missing Book V
and was completed in 1545, but not published until 1654,
by which time several other versions had appeared.

• Opuscula Mathematica and Arithmeticorum Libri Duo

published at Venice in 1575.

• Arithmeticorum- where Maurolico’s added his simple and

igneous proofs.

• Maurolico’s proof is this: By the rule of formation of

CHAPTER 9
triangular numbers, t sub n – 1 + n. Adding, t sub n – 1 to
both side of equation.
 TRIANGLE ARITHMÉTIQUE

• Logical Process

• Pascal sent a letter to Carcavi regarding Mau

rolico’s proof of proposition and said, ‘Cela e
st aise par Maurolico.’

CHAPTER 9
CHRISTIAAN HUYGENS’S PAMPHLET ON PROBABILITY

CHRISTIAN HUYGENS (1629-1695)

• Leading continental scientist of the late 17th century

• He attended University of Leiden from 1647 until 1649
• Huygens brought out the treatise Triate de la Lumiere
which describe his radically new theory of light
• He invent the pendulum clock in 1656
• De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae
 THE BERNOULLI BROTHERS
JAMES BERNOULLI ( 1654 - 1705)

• Took a degree in theology at the University

of Basel in 1676
• Motto invito patre sidera verso (“I study
the stars against my Father’s will”)
• In 1682, he opened a school for
mathematics and science
• Ars Conjectandi (the art of conjecturing)

CHAPTER 9
 ARS CONJECTANDI (THE ART OF CONJECTURING)

FOUR PARTS:
• The first is a reproduction of Huygens’s De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae, a
ccompanied by a commentary on all but one of huygens’s propositions
• The second part of the Ars Conjectandi contains practically all the
standard results on permutations and combinations in the form in which
they are still expressed
• The third part of the ars conjectandi consists of 24 problems relating to
the various games of chance
• The final part of the treatise is entitled “applications of the previous stud
y to civil, moral and economic problems

CHAPTER 9
Bernoulli’s theorem (which the French mathematici
an Poisson later called the “law of large numbers”)
John Bernoulli (1667- 1748)

• Leibniz’s paper in Acta Eruditorum

• Professor of Mathematics in Gronigen
• Death of James in 1705
• Acta Eruditorum ( Three solutions)
• Huygen- classical geometric method
• Leibniz and Bernoulli- new differential
calculus
 DE MOIVRE’S DOCTRINE OF CHANCES

De Moivre’s Doctrine of Chances: or, a Method

of Calculating the Probability of Events in Play
(1718).

Abraham De Moivre (1667–1754) was a French

Protestant who was forced to seek asylum in
London after the revocation of the Edict of Nante
CHAPTER 9
s and the expulsion of the Huguenots (1685).
THE MATHEMATICS OF CELESTIAL
PHENOMENA: LAPLACE
THE MATHEMATICS OF CELESTIAL
PHENOMENA: LAPLACE
SOME FACTS ABOUT MR. PIERRE SIMON LAPLACE

• Pierre Simon Laplace (1749-1827)

• Died at the age of 78
• Studied at Benedictive Priory School to Study Theology
But...
• He discovered a passion for mathematics and realized that his vocation r
eally relies on it.
• He wrote his first mathematimatical paper entitled "Provisional Professor"
• Flew to Paris and had been appointed professor of Mathematics at Paris
Ecole Militaire (1769)
 "Great scientific work of early 1800's, the highest point
to which man has yet ascended in the scale of intellectu
al attainment" Playfair (1808)

Five large Volumes (1799-1825)

It talks about...

All movement of t To solve the great mechanical

he element of the problems of the solar system
planetary system and to bring theory to coincid
were deducible fro e so closely with observation
m law of gravitatio that empirical equation shoul
n d not be needed
Mary Fairfax Somerville
• Self-educated scotswoman who
has studied treatise in Edinburgh
• Single woman who understand L
aplace's Treatise
• Asked to translate Pierre Laplac
e's book, Celetial Mechanics
• She dis and called it "The Mecha
nisms of the Heaven"
• This was her best writing and it h
elped many people to understan
d math more easily.
LAPLACE'S RESEARCH IN PROBABILITY T
HEORY
1809 - when Laplace moved back into Probability Theory

Series of Memoirs...

• Presenting the solution of every classical pr

oblems of Probability Theory
• Traced the evolution of the subject, at the
same time systemizing and extending the
previously known but often uncoordinated
results of may mathematicians
 Theorie Analytique des
Consists of 2 books
Probabilities

The Calculus of generati General Theory of Pr

ng functions obability

The theory of Prbability Proper Limit theorems Mathematical Statistics

DANIEL BERNOULLI, POISSON, AND CHEB
YSHEV