Global Demography

By: Group 8 Lesson 9

Learning Outcomes:

1. Discuss the relationship between

population and economic welfare;
2. Identify the effects of aging and
overpopulation; and
3. Differentiate between contrasting
positions over reproductive health.
Will the child be the economic
asset or a burden to the
family?
Rural communities often welcome an
extra hand to help in crop cultivation,
particularly during the planting and
harvesting seasons.

The poorer districts of urban centers

also tend to have families with more
children because the success of their
“small family business” depends on
how many of their members can be
hawking their wares on the streets.
Urbanized, educated and
professional families with two
incomes, however, desire one or two
progenies.

Rural families view multiple children

and large kinship networks as critical
investments.
These differing versions of family
determine the economic and social
policies that countries craft
regarding their respective
populations.

The 1980 united nations report on

urban and rural population growth
states that “these contained 85% of
the world rural population in 1975
and are projected to contain 90% by
the end of 20th century.
The blog site “nourishing the planet”
however, noted that even as “the
agricultural population shrunk as a
share as a share of total population
between 1980 and 2011, it grew
numerically from 2.2 billion to 2.6
billion people during this period.
Urban population have grown, but not
necessarily because families are having
more children. It is rather the
combination of the natural outcome of
significant migration to the cities by
people seeking work in the “more
modern sectors of society.

By the start of 21st century, the world had

become “44% urban, while the
corresponding figures for developed
countries are 52% to 75%.
International migration also plays a part.
Today 191 million people lived in countries
other than their own.

United nations projects that over 2.2 million

will move from the developing countries to
the first world countries.

Countries welcome immigrants as they

offset the debilitating effects of an aging
population, but they are also perceived
threats to the job markets because they
competes against citizens for job and often
have the edge because they are open to
receiving lower wages.
The perils of Overpopulation

Developmental planners see urbanization

and industrialization as indicators of a
developing society, but disagree on the role
of population growth or decline in
modernization.

British scholar Thomas Malthus who warned

in 1978 “an essay on the Principle of
Population “ that population growth will
inevitably exhaust world food supply by the
middle of 19th century.
American biologist Paul R. Ehrlich and his
wife Anne wrote The Population Bomb, which
argued that overpopulation in 1970’s and the
1980s will bring about global environment
disasters that would in turn lead to food
shortage and mass starvation.

The rate of global population increase was at

the highest between 1955 and 1975 when
nations were finally able to return to normalcy
after the devastations wrought by world war II.
The growth rate rose from 1.8% per year from
1955 to1975, peaking at 2.06% annual growth
rate between 1965 and 1970.
As early as 1958, the american policy journal,
foreign affairs, had already advocated “
contraception and sterilization” as the practical
solutions to global economic, social, and
political problems.

In May 2009, a group of American billionaires

warned of how a “nightmarish” explosion of
people was a potentially disastrous
environmental, social and industrial threat to the
world.

Thus, in Puerto Rico, reproductive health

supporters regard their work as the task of
transforming their poor country into a modern
nation.
Finally politics determine these birth control
programs.

Developed countries justify their support for

population control in developing countries by
depicting the latter as conservative societies.

These policy formulations lead to extreme

policies like the forced sterilization of 20M
violators of the Chinese government’s one
child policy. Vietnam and Mexico also
conducted coersive mass sterilization.
It’s the economy not the babies

The median of 29.4 years for females and

30.9 for males in the cities means a young
working population. With this median age,
states are assured that they have a robust
military force.

Population growth has, in fact, spurred

technological and institutional innovation
and increased the supply of human
ingenuity.
The green revolution created high yielding
varieties of rice and other cereals and, along
with the development of new methods of
cultivation, increased yields globally, but
more particularly in the developing world.

Lately, a middle ground emerged between

these two extremes. Scholars and
policymakers agree with the neo-
Malthusians but suggest that if governments
pursue population control program they
must include “more inclusive growth” and
“greener economic growth.”
Women and Reproductive Rights
Reproductive rights supporters argue that if
population control and economic
development were to reach their goals,
women must have control over whether they
will have children or not and when they will
have their progenies, if any.

This serial correlation between fertility,

family, and fortune has motivated countries
with growing economies to introduce or
strengthen their reproductive health laws,
including abortion.
Most countries implement reproductive
health laws because they worry about the
health of the mother.

In 1960, Bolivia’s average total fertility rate

(TFR) was 6.7 children.
In 1978, the Bolivian government put into
effect a family planning program that
included the legalization of abortion.
By 1985, the TFR rate went down to 5.13
and further declined to 3.46 in 2008.
Opponents regard reproductive rights as
nothing but a false front for abortion.

The religious wing of the anti- reproductive

rights flank goes further and describes
abortion as a debauchery that sullies the
name of God; it will send the mother to
hell and prevents a new soul, the baby, to
become human.

A country being industrialized and

developed, however, does not
automatically assure pro-women
reproductive regulations.
 The Feminist Perspective
feminist approach the issue of
reproductive rights from another angle.

They are, foremost, against any form of

population control because they are
compulsory by nature, resorting to a
carrot-and-stick approach that actually
does not empower women.
Population Growth and Food Security

Today’s global population has reached 7.4

billion, and it is estimated to increased to 9.5
billion in 2050, then 11.2 billion by 2100.

Demographers predict that the world

population will stabilize by 2050 to 9 billion,
although they warn that feeding this
population will be an immense challenge.
The food and agriculture organizations
(FAO) warns that in order for countries to
mitigate the impact of population growth,
food production must increased by 70%
annual cereal production must rise to 3
billion tons from the current 2.1 billion; and
yearly meat production must go up to 200
million tons to reach 470 million.

The FAO recommends that countries

increase their investments in agriculture,
craft long-term policies aimed at fighting
poverty, and invest in research and
development.
The aforementioned are worthy
recommendations but nation-states
shall need the political will to push
through this sweeping changes in
population growth and food security.

This will take some time to happen

given that good governance is also a
goal that many nations, specially in the
developing world, have yet to attain.
The End