Topic 4.

PROBABILITY
Sample Space
Fundamental Principle of Counting
Permutations
Combinations
Probability of an Event
Additive Rules
Conditional Probability
Objectives
Count efficiently by applying the
Fundamental Principle of Counting
Count using permutation and combination.
Determine the probability of a given event.
Apply the different laws of probability.
Interpret probability values.
Knowledge of counting the number of
ways by which events
can happen is important
in the study of
probability. The
elements of a sample
space can be
systematically listed by
means of a tree
diagram.
Problem

How many 3-digit numbers

can be formed from the digits
1, 2 and 3 if repetition of
digits is not allowed?
Solution:
Hundredth Digit Tenth Digit Unit Digit Number
2 3 123
1
3 2 132

1 3 213
2
3 1 231

1 2 312
3
2 1 321

Answer: 6
numbers
The fundamental principle of
counting provides a rule in
determining the number of
chance occurrence of events.
This is known as the
multiplication rule.
MULTIPLICATION RULE
If one thing can be
done in n1 ways and a
second thing can be
done in n2 ways, then
the sequence of things
can be done together in
n1n2 ways.
Problem

How many 3-digit numbers can be

formed from the digits 1, 2 and 3 if
repetition of digits is not allowed?

Solution:

3 x 2 x 1 = 6
(H) (T) (U)
numbers
Problem
A telephone company wants to set up a
system for a certain province. Company
officials are thinking of using a system where
each telephone number has 6 digits: the first
two digits starting with 44, 45, 47, 49 and the
last 4 digits being any number from 1 to 9.
What is the largest number of customers that
the system can service?

Solution:

1 x 4 x 9 x 9 x 9 x 9 = 26,244 nos.
Problem
If the call letters of radio stations must
begin with the letter D, the second
must be W, X, Y, or Z, while the third
and fourth may be any letter, how
many different stations can there be if:
a)repetition of a letter is not allowed
b) repetitions are allowed

Solution:

a) 1 x 4 x 24 x 23 = 2,208 stations
b) 1 x 4 x 26 x 26 = 2,704 stations
Problem

A coin and a die are tossed.

Then a card is picked from a deck.
How many results are possible?

Solution:

2 x 6 x 52 = 624
results
(coin) (die) (card)
PERMUTATION
Other rules on counting deal with the
number of arrangements of items
with regard to the order of the items.
A permutation is a group of items
where the composition of the group
and the order of the items within the
group are both important.
The number of permutations of n
objects taken k at a time, P(n,k), is given
by:

n!
P (n, k ) 
( n  k )!
Note:

n! (n factorial) = the product of integers

from 1 to n
0! = factorial of zero = 1
Problem

How many number of permutations of

the first 3 letters of the alphabet are
there if the letters are taken 2 at a
time?
Solution
Using Tree Diagram

1st Letter 2nd Letter Letter Combination

B AB
A
C AC
A BA
B
C BC
A CA
C
B CB

Answer: 6
combinatio
 Using Multiplication Rule (FPC):

3 x 2 = 6 combinations
(1st Letter) (2nd Letter) (Answer)
Using Permutation Formula:

n!
P (n, k )  where n = 3
( n  k )! k=2

P 3 , 2  
3! 3 .2 .1

( 3  2 )! 1
P (3 ,2 )  6 combinations
Problem
There are 7 children in a room, and there
are 4 seats in a row. Children are to be
assigned to these seats.

a) How many seating arrangements can

be devised?
b) How many seating
arrangements can be
devised if Amy and Lilia
cannot be seated
alongside one another?
Solution
n!
a) P ( n , k )  where n=7
( n  k )! k=4

7! 7!
P (7 ,4 )  
( 7  4 )! 3!
P (7 ,4 )  8 4 0 w a y s
b) Assume Amy to precede Lilia = 1 position
This will make the no. of children(n) = 6
And the no. of seats (k) = 3

n! 6!
P (n, k )  
( n  k )! ( 6  3)!
P ( 6 ,3 )  1 2 0 w a y s
If the no. of seating arrangements
in which Amy and Lilia are seated
together = 120

The no. of seating arrangements in

which Amy and Lilia are not seated
together is equal to:

840 – 120 = 720 ways

If among n objects, j items are alike, k
other items are also alike, and still l
items are alike and so on, then the
number of distinct permutations of the
items taken all together is:

n!
P ( n , n ( j , k ,l ) ) 
j! k ! l !
Problem

How many number of

permutations of the 8 letters
of the word PARABOLA are
there if the letters are taken
all at a time?
Solution

n!
n =8 P (n, n( j ) ) 
j = 3 a’s j!
8!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 3 ) ) 
3!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 3 ) )  6 7 2 0
Problem

In how many ways can the letters of

the word CALCULUS be arranged?

How many of these arrangements

begin and end with the same letter?
Solution

n!
n =8 P ( n , n ( j , k ,l ) ) 
j = 2 c’s j! k ! l !
= 2 l’s 8!
k P ( 8 ,8 ( 2 , 2 , 2 ) ) 
l = 2 u’s 2!2!2!
P ( 8 ,8 ( 2 , 2 , 2 ) )  5 0 4 0
How many of these arrangements
begin and end with the same letter?
CALCULUS
a) begin and end w/ letter C
C_ _ _ _ _ _C (Arrange 6 letters)

6!
n =6 P ( 6 ,6 ( 2 , 2 ) ) 
k = 2 l’s 2!2!
l = 2 u’s P ( 6 ,6 (2 ,2 ) )  1 8 0
 CALCULUS
b) begin and end w/ letter L
L_ _ _ _ _ _L (Arrange 6 letters)

6!
n =6 P ( 6 ,6 ( 2 , 2 ) ) 
k = 2 c’s 2!2!
l = 2 u’s P ( 6 ,6 (2 ,2 ) )  1 8 0
 CALCULUS
c) begin and end w/ letter U
U_ _ _ _ _ _U (Arrange 6 letters)

6!
n =6 P ( 6 ,6 ( 2 , 2 ) ) 
k = 2 c’s 2!2!
l = 2 l’s P ( 6 ,6 (2 ,2 ) )  1 8 0
Summary:

C_ _ _ _ _ _C 180
L_ _ _ _ _ _L 180
U_ _ _ _ _ _U 180
Total No. of Ways: 540 ways
COMBINATION
A combination is a group of objects
where the composition of the group, but
not the order, is important. The number
of combinations of n objects taken k at a
time, C(n,k), is given by:

n!
C (n, k ) 
( n  k )! k !
Problem
An instructor has prepared a set of 12
problems and will include 8 of these
problems in an examination. How many
examinations can be formed?

n!
C (n, k ) 
n = 12
( n  k )! k !
12!
k=8
C (12 ,8 )   495
4 ! 8!
Problem

In how many ways can we choose 6

people including at least 2 women out
of a group of 7 men and 4 women?

3 possible groupings:
1) 2 women + 4 men
2) 3 women + 3 men
3) 4 women + 2 men
Solution:  7 men and 4 women

I. Groupings of 2 women & 4 men

C (4,2) x C (7,4)

4! 7!
No. of ways = x = 210
2! 2! 3! 4!
 7 men and 4 women
II. Groupings of 3 women & 3 men

C (4,3) x C (7,3)

4! 7!
No. of ways = x = 140
1! 3! 4! 3!
 7 men and 4 women
III. Groupings of 4 women & 2 men

C (4,4) x C (7,2)

4! x 7!
No. of ways = = 21
0! 4! 5! 2!
Summary

3 groupings: No. of Ways:

1) 2 women + 4 men 210
2) 3 women + 3 men 140
3) 4 women + 2 men 21
Answer: 371
Problem

A bag contains 6 red balls and 4

white balls. In how many ways can
one draw:
a) 2 white balls
b) 2 balls of different color?
c) 2 balls of the same color?
d) any two balls?
Solution
# red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

a) 2 white balls

4!
C ( 4,2 )  = 6 ways
2! 2!
 # red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

b) 2 balls of different color?

6! 4!
C ( 6 ,1) x C ( 4 ,1)  x
5! 1! 3! 1!

C ( 6 ,1 ) x C ( 4 ,1 )  2 4 w a y s
 # red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

c) 2 balls of the same color

6!
both red: C ( 6 , 2 )  = 15 ways
4! 2!
4!
both white: C ( 4 , 2 )  = 6 ways
2! 2!
same color: 15 + 6 = 21 ways
 # red balls = 6
# white balls = 4

d) any 2 balls
10!
C (10 , 2 ) 
8! 2!
C (1 0 , 2 )  4 5 w a y s
Elementary Probability
A statistical experiment is an
activity in which the outcomes when
counted or measured can generate
data.

The set which enumerates all

possible outcomes of an experiment
is called the sample space.
Each outcome in a sample space is
called an element or a member of
the sample space or simply a
sample point.

Each outcome or group of outcomes

which do not consist of the entire
sample space, is called an event. In
other words, event is a part or a
subset of the sample space.
Problem
If we want to determine the chances
that a family with two children will have
at least one boy, how would we list the
set of possible outcomes?

S = { (M, F), (M, M), (F, M), (F, F) }

nS = 4
E = event that family will have at least
one boy

E = { (M, F), (M, M), (F, M) }

nE = 3
Problem

Give a sample space for an

experiment in which a number is to be
selected from the set of all 2-digit
numbers from the digits 3, 4, 5, 6
allowing repetition of digits. How many
points in the sample space correspond
to the event that the number is even?
S = { 33, 34, 35, 36, 43, 44, 45, 46,
53, 54, 55, 56, 63, 64, 65, 66}
nS = 16
E = event that number is even

E = { 34, 36, 44, 46, 54, 56, 64, 66 }

nE = 8
Probability of an Event
The probability of an event is a number
that estimates the chances that the
event will happen.
Probability values are between 0 and 1.
If an event has a probability of 0, its
occurrence is an impossibility.
On the other hand, if an event has a
probability of 1, its occurrence is a
certainty.
 If a trial has n distinct equally likely
outcomes, and an event occurs in k out
of these n outcomes, then the probability
of the event E is :

no. of favorable outcomes

P(E) =
no. of possible outcomes
 P(E) = k =
nE
n nS

0 < P(E) < 1

for all proper non-empty subsets
Joint and Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events, A and B, are joint if they

can occur together.

Two events are said to be mutually

exclusive if either one, but not both can
result from a single trial.
Example

Throwing a die: S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }

nS = 6
E1 : The outcome is even.
E1 = { 2, 4, 6 }
nE1 = 3
nE1 3
P(E1 ) =
nS =
6
= 50%
 E2 : The outcome is odd.

E2 = { 1, 3, 5 }

nE2 = 3
nE2 3
P(E2 ) =
nS
=
6
= 50%
 E3 : The outcome is at least 3.

E3 = { 3, 4, 5, 6 }

nE3 = 4
nE4 4
P(E3 ) =
nS
=
6
= 67%
Are events E1 and E2 joint or mutually
exclusive?
Answer: MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE

Events E1 and E3 ?
Answer: JOINT
Events E2 and E3 ?
Answer: JOINT
Problem

A person holds a ticket in a lottery in

which a total of 1,500 tickets are sold
and 10 prizes are at stake. What is the
probability that:
a) he will win a prize?
b) he will not win a prize?
Solution

nS = 1500
E1 = event of winning a prize
E2 = event of not winning a prize

10
nE1 = 10 P ( E1 )   0 .0 0 6 7
1500

1490
nE2 = 1490 P(E2 )   0 .9 9 3 3
1500
Problem

A survey is taken among 50 employees in

a certain manufacturing firm on the
question of setting up a union. The results
are tabulated as follows:
Union?

Supervisors Foremen Laborers Total

Favor a Union 1 4 30 35

Opposed 3 2 2 7

No Opinion 1 4 3 8

Total 5 10 35 50
 Supervisors Foremen Laborers Total

Favor a Union 1 4 30 35

Opposed 3 2 2 7

No Opinion 1 4 3 8

Total 5 10 35 50

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will
favor a union?

35
P ( E1 )   0 .7 0
50
 Supervisors Foremen Laborers Total

Favor a Union 1 4 30 35

Opposed 3 2 2 7

No Opinion 1 4 3 8

Total 5 10 35 50

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will
be a supervisor who favors a
union?
1
P ( E2 )   0.02
50
 Supervisors Foremen Laborers Total

Favor a Union 1 4 30 35

Opposed 3 2 2 7

No Opinion 1 4 3 8

Total 5 10 35 50

Question: What is the probability that an

employee selected at random will be
a foreman and will have no opinion?

4
P ( E4 )   0.08
50
Additive Rules

For any two joint events A and B

which are subsets of the sample
space S, the probability of the union
of the two events is:

P (A  B )  P (A )  P (B )  P (A  B )
If events A and B are mutually
exclusive or disjoint,

P (A  B )  P (A )  P (B )
Problem

Fifty balls are numbered 1 to 50, placed

in a box and mixed thoroughly. If a ball
is picked at random, what is the
probability that:
a) its number is divisible by 6
b) its number ends in 2
c) its number is divisible by 6 and ends in 2
d) its number is divisible by 6 or ends in 2
Solution

a) its number is divisible by 6

A = event that number is divisible by 6
A = { 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48 }

nA = 8 8
P ( A) 
nS = 50 50
b) its number ends in 2

B = event that number end in 2

B = { 2, 12, 22, 32, 42 }

nB = 5 5
P(B) 
nS = 50 50
c) its number is divisible by 6 and
ends in 2
(A  B) = event that number is
divisible by 6 and ends in 2

A = { 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48 }

B = { 2, 12, 22, 32, 42 }

(A  B)   12, 42  2
P(A  B) 
n(A  B)  2 50
d) its number is divisible by 6 or ends
in 2
(A  B) = event that number is
divisible by 6 or ends in 2
8 5 2
P ( A)  P(B)  P(A  B) 
50 50 50

P (A  B )  P (A )  P (B )  P (A  B )
8 5 2 11
P(A  B)    =
50 50 50 50
Problem

The Venn diagram shows the

languages spoken by a group of 14
students. If a student is chosen at
random, compute:
a) P(he speaks only Chinese)
b) P(he speaks Chinese and French)

c) P(he speaks English or French)

 Solution
2
3 2 French
Chinese
3 2 1
1
English

3 4 11
P (C )  P (C  F )  P(F  E ) 
14 14 14
Conditional Probability
The probability that an event B occurs
when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional
probability.
Here, the probability of a particular
outcome in the second event cannot be
determined until the outcome of the first
event is known.
If A and B are events in a sample space
with P(A) = 0, we define the conditional
probability of B given A by the formula:

P(A  B)
P( B )
A P ( A)

If two events are independent,

P (A  B )  P (A) P (B )
Problem
A box contains 1 black and 2 red balls.
Two balls are drawn one after the other.
What is the probability that the first ball
is black and the second ball is red?

B = event that first ball is black

R = event that second ball is red

P (B  R )  ?
Solution

B = event that first ball is black

1
P (B ) =
3
R = event that 2nd ball is red if the
B 1st ball is black

R 2
P( )=
B 2
 P ( B  R )
P(R ) 
B P(B)

 B P  B 
P (B  R )  P R

 2  1 1
P ( B  R ) =    =
 2   3 3
Problem
A company’s records show the
following distribution of its workers:

Job Status College Graduate HS Graduate Total

Regular 51 25 76
Casual 33 22 55
Total 84 47 131

What is the probability that a worker chosen

at random has a regular job status given that
the one chosen is a high school graduate?
Solution
HS = event that worker is a HS graduate
R = event that worker has a regular status

HS  R = event that worker is a HS

graduate who has a
regular status

P(R )?
HS
 Job Status College Graduate HS Graduate Total
Regular 51 25 76
Casual 33 22 55
Total 84 47 131

47 25
P (H S ) = P (H S  R ) =
131 131
P (HS  R )
P(R )
HS P (HS )
25
R 131 25
P( ) = 47 = = 0.532
HS 47
131
Problem

A pair of dice is thrown. If the sum

is 6, what is the probability that 2
comes up?

nS = 6 x 6 = 36
A = event that sum is 6
B = event that 2 comes up
Solution
A = (1,5), (2,4), (3,3), (4,2), (5,1)
nA = 5
nA 5
P ( A)  
nS 36
( A  B ) = event that sum is 6 and 2
comes up
2
P(A  B) 
36
 5 2
P ( A)  P(A  B) 
36 36

2
 
P B
A

P(A  B)
P ( A)
=
36
5
36

 
PB 
A 5
2
Problem

In a freshman class exam, results

showed that 15% of the students failed
Physics, 16% failed English and 2%
failed both Physics and English. Are
the two events, failing Physics and
failing English independent?
Solution

P(P) = probability of failing Physics

P ( P )  0 .1 5
P(E) = probability of failing English
P ( E )  0 .1 6
P ( P  E ) = probability of failing both
Physics and English
P ( P  E )  0 .0 2
For Independent Events
P (P  E )  P (P )P (E )
0 .0 2 = ( 0 .1 5 ) ( 0 .1 6 )
0 .0 2  0 .2 4

Hence, the two events are

dependent.