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Braw Mahmod
• Project background
• Objectives
• Literature review
• Research methodology
• Results and discussion
• Conclusion.
Project background
The high levels of uncertainty and risk associated to some oil fields projects suggests the
employment of probabilistically optimized production strategies. This allows the design of a
strategy more suited to absorb the impacts caused by uncertainty.
In the initial phase of the project, information about the reservoir geology is obtained from
few wells drilled or inferred from indirect sources
Project background
• Traditional probabilistic optimization processes usually give more emphasis to
geological uncertainties than economic.
• In a conventional approach, the optimization of a production strategy under uncertainty
is done through the composition of Geological Representative Models (GRM) with the
realizations of economic scenarios, forming a decision tree
Objectives
• The main objective of probabilistic methodologies for production strategies optimization.
intermediate and optimistic realizations for the geological model and the economic environment can
be considered
Literature review
• An algorithm that carries out the EMV of a production strategy for each step of the optimization was
developed. This algorithm performs the interconnection between flow simulation and economic
analyses, necessary to calculate the EMV of a production strategy
Literature review
• The performance of the proposed methodology is compared with the performance of a conventional
methodology of production optimization under uncertainty. A case with three geological models and
three economic scenarios is studied. The optimized strategy presents more adaptability to the possible
variations, showing a good performance in all adopted contexts
Methodology
• The methodology presented in this paper proposes a more rigorous approach in the optimization of
decision tree branches. Different from conventional approach, the optimization is made directly on
response surface of the EMV of the production strategy.
• A production strategy is independently optimized for each branch of this tree, as shown in Figure 1.
• A technique to perform flow simulate associated with economic analysis was developed allowing the
optimization of a single strategy for all branches of the decision tree, as shown in Figure 2.
Methodology
Figure 1 – Conventional methodology of production strategy Figure 2 – Proposed methodology of production strategy
optimization under uncertainties optimization under uncertainties
m
Methodology
In order to lead the optimization process considering the geological and economic uncertainties, it is necessary to develop a
definition file, as outlined in Figure 4. In this work, the well definition file is responsible for defining a production strategy,
providing the quantities and placement of wells. By sharing the well definition file, any change done in this file will automatically
• Finally, the performance of the strategy is evaluated in all geological models and economic scenarios. Thus, it is possible to
The branch that generated the optimized strategy with highest EMV corresponds to the optimistic
geological model and intermediary economic scenario. The optimal strategy consists of 10 producers
wells and 6 injectors wells and has an EMV of US$ 780.00 MM. Figure 5 shows the optimal strategy
optimized by conventional methodology.
• Proposed Methodology
The optimized strategy using this approach generated an EMV of US$ 850.00 MM after 4,074 flow
simulations in approximately 13.6 hours. This strategy consists of 18 wells with 11 producers and 7
injectors. Figure 6 the strategy.
• Table 2 shows the performance of this strategy in all branches of the decision tree
fig 7
NPV Net Present Value
Conclusion
• The proposed methodology was a viable alternative for consideration of uncertainties in an
optimization process of production strategies. Although more rigorous than the conventional method,
there is a decrease in the number of simulations required to optimize the production strategy.