M

makroekonomika

Lleqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

bazari (IS modeli)

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

Sesavali

 makroekonomikur doneze gamoiyofen saqonlisa da momsaxurebis,

warmoebis faqtorebis, fulis da finansur bazrebs.
 saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze nayidi da gayiduli produqciis moculobebi
erTmaneTis tolia, magram es ar niSnavs, rom waroebuli da gayiduli produqciis
raodenobac erTmaneTis toli iqneba.
 wonasworul mdgomareobaSi warmoebuli da gayiduli produqciis raodenoba
erTmaneTis tolia.

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

Sesavali

 wonasworobis SenarCuneba damokidebulia imaze, Tu rogoria saojaxo

meurneobebis damokidebuleba moxmarebis mimdinare donisadmi,
mocemul momentisaTvis sawarmoo ZalTa arsebuli ganviTarebis donis
pirobebSi.
 amitom Cveni Seswavlis sagani iqneba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
bazaarze wonasworobis pirobebi da is faqtorebi, romlebic gavlenas axdenen
wonasworobis Camoyalibebasa da darRvevaze.

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura

 saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze myidvelebis rolSi

makroekonomikur doneze gamodian: saojaxo meurneobebi,
mwarmoeblebi, saxelmwifo da danarCeni msoflio. es
subieqtebi ayalibeben moTxovnas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis
bazarze.

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura

GDP=s komponentebi

GDP = C + I + G + NX
saojaxo meurneobebis
moxmareba

kerZo Sida wminda

investiciebi eqsporti

saxelmwifos
moxmareba

5
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

erToblivi moTxovna da misi struqtura

Ex

140%
G
120%
I

100%

80%
C
60%

40%

20%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007

 saqarTvelos mSp-s struqtura 1996-2007 wlebisaTvis
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

moxmareba

rogor iReben gadawyvetilebas saojaxo meurneobebi sakuTari

moTxovnis formirebisas saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze?

 arsebobs uamravi faqtori, romelic maT gadawyvetilebaze zemoqmedebs,

magaliTad, rogoricaa mimdinare gankargvadi Semosavlebi (gadasaxadisagan
Tavisufali Semosavlebi), maTi qonebis sidide, saprocento ganakveTi, maTi
molodinebi momavlTan dakavSirebiT, konstituciuri wesrigi, socialuri
uTanasworoba da sxva. Tu Cven SeviswavliT am da sxva faqtorebis da
miTxovnis damokidebulebas miviRebT sxvadasxva moTxovnis mrudebs.

 ekonomistebi zogadad moTxovnaze faqtorTa didi jgufis zemoqmedebis faqts

aRiareben. Tumca azrTa sxvadasxvaoba warmoiSoba imasTan dakavSirebiT
Tu, romeli faqtori ufro metad mniSvnelovania erToblivi moTxovnis
gansazRvrisas.

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

moxmareba

 keinzianelebi miiCneven rom yvelaze ufro mniSvnelovani faqtori aris

mimdinare gankargvadi Semosavlebi,

 klasikosebi ki miiCneven, rom adamianebi gadawyvetilebas iReben mkacrad

subieqturad da is damokidebulia saprocenro ganakveTsa da adamianTa mier
drois konkretul momentSi upiretesobebis ganawilebaze.

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

moxmareba

moxmarebis da danazogebis funqcia

 keinzianuri koncefciis mixedviT mimdinare moxmareba damokidebulia

mimdinare Semosavlebze da igi e.w. “ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoniT”
ganisazRvreba, romlis mixedviTac adamianebi, Semosavlebis zrdisas
midrekilni arian gazardon TavianTi moxmareba.
 algebrulad “ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoni” Semdegi formiT SegviZlia
CavweroT:

C  C a  MPC Y
sadac, C- aavtonomiuri moxmarebaa; - moxmarebisadmi
MPC zRvruli
miderkileba;
 MPC < 1, da MPC + MPS = 1, sadac MPS – danazogebisadmi zRvruli
midrekilebaa. aqedan gamomdinareobs daskvna, rom danazogebi
mimdinare Semosavlebzea damokidebuli: S=S(Y)
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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

moxmareba

moxmarebis funqcia

 saojaxo meurneobebi gadawyvetilebas iReben ara mTeli TavianTi

Semosavlis mixedviT. aramed mxolod gankargvadi Semosavlis(
)mixedviT: Y v  Y  tY

C  C a  MPC y v Yv
sadac, t
- proporciuli sagadasaxado ganakveTia

 Sesabamisad MPC  MPC yv

(1  t )

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

moxmareba

moxmarebis funqcia

C
C(y)

MPC  tg    C /  Y v
Ca α tg   C / Y

Y
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

moxmareba

saqarTvelos moxmarebis funqcia 1997-2007

wlebisaTvis

14,000.0

12,000.0
f(x) = 0.74 x + 751.41 2007
2006
R² = 0.98
10,000.0

8,000.0
2004 2005
2003
C

6,000.0 2002
2000
1997 2001
1996 1999
4,000.0 1998

2,000.0

0.0
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Y 12
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

investiciebi

investiciebi

• investiciebi sawarmos mimdinare danaxarjebisagan gansxvavebiT Sedegs imave

periodSi ar iZleva, romelSic igi xorcieldeba, aramed mTel rig momdevno
periodebSi. amitom investiciuri danaxarjebis Sefasebisas warmoiSoba sxvadasxva
periodis Rirebulebebis Sedarebis problema, romelis gadawyvetac diskontirebis
saSualebiT aris SesaZlebeli.

• makroekonomikaSi drois faqtoris gaTvaliswineba mniSvnelovania. saprocento

ganakveTi(i) aris normativi, romlis safuZvelzec dRevandeli fuli da saqoneli SeiZleba
gaicvalos momavalSi drois gansazrvrul momentisaTvis fulsa da saqonelze.

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leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

investiciebi

saprocento ganakveTi da mocemuli Rirebuleba

• mocemuli Rirebuleba(PV) aris momavalSi fulis Rirebuleba dayvanili dRevandel

Rirebulebaze. magaliTad, Tu saprocento ganakveTi 10%-ia momdevno periodSi 1 laris
mimdinare Rirebuleba iqneba ≈0.91 lari. zogadad Cven SegviZlia CavweroT:

Y1 Y Y
PV= + 2 2+…+ n n
(1+i) (1+i) (1+i)
• rac niSnavs rom, imisaTvis, rom momaval 1,2,...n periodebSi gvqonoda Y1, Y2,… Yn
Semosavali (∑Yi=CFt), sabaziso(nulovan) periodSi unda dagvebandebina PV odenobis
Tanxa.
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

investiciebi

investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba da wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba

• imisaTvis rom gavigoT ramdenad Rirs investiciis(I 0) dabandeba amisaTvis saWiroa

gaviangariSoT ras udris am investiciebis zRvruli efeqturoba(IRR). IRR aris iseTi
saprocento ganakveTi romelsac wonasworobaSi moyavs Semdegi toloba:

Yk n
Io=∑
k=1(1+IRR)
k

• miRebuli, IRR SegviZlia SeudaroT an sxva altenatiuli proeqtis IRR-s an sabanko

depozitis saprocento ganakveTs(i) anac sxva finansuri aqtivis saprocento ganakveTs.

• meoresmxriv, imisaTvis rom gavigoT ramdenad Rirs investiciis(I 0) dabandeba

amisaTvis saWiroa gaviangariSoT wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba(NPV). risTvisac
saWiroa erTmaneTs SevudaroT I0 da PV. sadac PV Sefasdeba alternatiuli proeqtis
saprocento ganakveTiT(IRR) an sabanko saprocento ganakveTiT(i).

NPV= - I0 + PV • Tu NPV>0 maSin, Rirs investiciebis ganxorcieleba

• Tu NPV<0 maSin, ar Rirs investiciebis ganxorcieleba
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

investiciebi

investiciebis funqcia

• maSasademe Tu nebismieri sxva saprocento ganakveTi mcirdeba, maSin izrdeba

ganxorcielebadi investiciuri proeqtebis raodenobac.

IRR, i

α
I  I ( i , IRR )
 

i2
i1

I
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

saxelmwifo xarjebi

saxelmwifo xarjebi - G

• saxelmwifo axorcielebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvas kerZo seqtorisagan da

awarmoebs sazogadoebriv dovlaTs.

• sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi SeiniSneba mSp-Si saxelmwifo xarjebis wilis zrdis

tendencia: XX-is dasawyisSi saSualod is Seadgenda 10%, xolo XXI-is dasawyisSi –
ukve 40-60%.

• SeuZlebelia agreTve saxelmwifo xarjebis optimalobis Sefaseba.

• saxelmwifo xarjebis moculobas, garda saxelmwifo biujetis tipiuri xarjebisa(saerTo

daniSnulebis saxelmwifo momsaxurebis Tavdacvis, sazogadoebrivi wesrigisa da
usafrTxoebis, garemos dacvis da sxva), gansazRvravs fiskaluri politikis miznebi.

• saxelmwifo biujeti dgindeba parlamentis mier, rogorc wesi erTi wliT adre.
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

saxelmwifo xarjebi

• saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis saSualebiT garda pirdapiri zemoqmedebisa saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis bazarze, saxelmwifo zemoqmedebs iribadac, gadasexadebisa da sesxis
aRebis (obligaciebis gamoSvebiT) gziT.

• sagadasaxado ganakveTebisa da moculobis cvlilebiT saxelmwifo zemoqmedebs

gankargvad Semosavalebze da Sesabamisad saojaxo meurneobebis samomxmareblo
moTxovnaze.

• sesxis aRebis SemTxvevaSi - fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze ganxorcielebuli operaciebis

Sedegad icvleba saprocento ganakveTi da Sesabamisad mwarmoeblebis moTxovna
investiciebze.
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli

wonasworoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarze – IS modeli

• ganvixiloT daxuruli ekonomika, maSin:

Y C I G
Y  C a  MPCy (Y  tY )  I ( i )  G
v

• xolo, wonasworobis piroba aris:

Y E
sadac, -E
aris dagegmili danaxarjebi(erToblivi miwodeba)

-Yfaqtiuri danaxarjebi (erToblivi moTxovna)

leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli

keinzianuri jvari

E
E

Z1
Warbi miwodeba
Y
Warbi moTxovna
Z2
MPC

C a  I (i )  G
45 o

Y
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli
• Tu izrdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTi, maSin Y mrudis daxris kuTxe mcirdeba da Tu
mcirdeba sagadasaxado ganakveTi - izrdeba.
• Tu mcirdeba moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba, maSin Y mrudis daxris kuTxe
mcirdeba da Tu izrdeba moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba - izrdeba.
• Tu izrdeba avtonomiuri moxmareba, investiciebi anda saxelmwifo xarjebi, maSin
mrudi gadaadgildeba zemoT da piriqiT.

E
E C a  I (i )  G  A

Y2
Y2=E2 ΔA
Y1
Y1=E1

45 o
Y1=E1 Y2=E2 Y
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli

E, A E

45 o
i
A i Y1 Y2 Y

i1

i2
IS

Ca+G A Y
• IS modelSi i da Y –is kombinaciebi iZleva IS mrudis wertilebs.
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli

IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi

• IS mrudis daxris kuTxe tolia:

I ( i )  l i ( R max  i )  l i R max  l i i
Y  C a  MPC (Y  tY )  l i R max  l i i  G
C a  l i R max  G  a
Y (1  MPC (1  t ))  a  l i i
a  (1  MPC (1  t )) Y
i
li
(1  MPC (1  t ))
tg  
li
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli

IS mrudis mdebareobis ganmsazRvreli faqtorebi

• IS mrudis gadaadgileba. rom gavigoT ra ganapirobebs IS mrudis paralelur

gadaadgilebas amisaTvis unda dauSvaT, rom i=const, maSin SegviZlia Y Semdegnairad
gamovsaxoT:
A
Y 
1  MPC (1  t )
• Tu am gamosaxulebas gavawarmoebT, A-s mimarT gveqneba:
1
Y  A
1  MPC (1  t )
• maSasadame IS mrudi gadaadgildeba Tu Seicvleba avtonomiuri moxmareba(Ca), kapitalis
zRvruli efeqturoba(R), investiciebis mgrZnobiaroba saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebisadmi
(li), investiciebis moculoba(I) da saxelmwifo xarebi(G). ΔA-s mamravls avtonomiuri
xarjebis multiplikatori ewodeba.
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli

multiplikatoruli efeqti

• multiplikatori gviCvenebs Tu ramdeniT gaizrdeba erToblivi moTxovna( Y) avtonomiuri

xarjebis(A) erTi erTeuliT gazrdis SemTxvevaSi.
• radgan 1-MPCy (1-t) < 1, amitom multiplikatori erTze meti iqneba. es ki imas niSnavs,
rom avtonomiuriv xarjebis erTi erTeuliT gazrdis SemTxvevaSi erToblivi moTxovna
gaizrdeba erTze meti sididiT.
• multiplikatoris efeqtis axsna Semdeg logikiT SeiZleba: magaliTad saxelmwifo zrdis
Tavdacvis xarjebs 100 ful. erT. maSin, Tu moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba 0.7-ia,

maSin Tavdacvis sferoSi dasaqmebulibi daxarjaven 0.7 .100=70 dauSvaT sayofacxovrebo

teqnikis Sesyidvaze, sayofacxovrebo teqnikis mwarmoeblebi ki 0.7 .70=49 sakvebi

produqtebis SeZenaze da a.S. zogadi saxiT es procesi ase Caiwereba:
ΔA –s Tanamamravli
 Y  usasrulo
(1  MPCgeometriuli
 MPCprogresiis
2
 MPC jamia
3
romelic tolia:  ) 
...  MPC
1 /(1  MPC )
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

IS modeli
fiskaluri politika da mulTiplikatoruli efeqti

E E

ΔG

G
1  MPC (1  t )

i
A i Y1 Y2 Y

i1

A Y
leqcia 3 – saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari(IS modeli)

ZiriTadi cnebebi

• saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari • saojaxo meurneobebi

• warmoebis faqtorebis bazari • mwarmoeblebi
• fulis bazari • saxelmwifo
• finansuri bazari • danarCeni msoflio

• wonasworoba

• ZiriTadi fsiqolofiuri kanoni • mocemuli Rirebuleba

• moxmarebisadmi zRvruli midrekileba • investiciebis zRvruli efeqti
• danazogenisadmi zRvruli midrekileba • wminda mocemuli Rirebuleba
• avtonomiuri moxmareba
• gankargvadi Semosavali • sagadasaxado ganakveTi
• saxazino obligacia

• keinzinuri jvari
• IS modeli
• avtonomiuri danaxarjebis
multiplikatori