Iran Nuclear Simulation

The United States

By Ann Doe
 President Donald Trump
Assumed office
January 20, 2017
Vice President
Mike Pence
Preceded by
Barack Obama

United States Secretary of State

Rex Tillerson is the 69th and current U.S. Secretary of State. Tillerson
joined ExxonMobil in 1975 as an engineer and served as the chairman
and chief executive officer (CEO) of the company from 2006 to 2016
2002-2004: Undeclared sites
In 2002 the existence of undeclared nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak is revealed.
Iran invites the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to carry out inspections and
says its activities are peaceful.

In 2003, Iran agrees with Britain, Germany and France to suspend suspect activities but
the following year goes back on the pledge.

In 2004, the IAEA says it found no

evidence of a secret weapons drive but
cannot rule out undeclared materials. In
Paris talks, Iran again agrees to suspend
certain activities.
2005-2008: Escalation and enrichment
In August 2005, under a hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Tehran produces
uranium gas, the precursor to enrichment for providing the core material for a bomb.
European nations break off negotiations.

Iranian President Mahmoud

Ahmadinejad visits the Natanz Uranium
Enrichment Facility some 200 miles
(322 kilometers) south of the capital
Tehran, Iran in 2008. (AP/Iranian
President’s Office)
2005-2008: Escalation and enrichment (contd.)
In 2006, Iran breaks IAEA seals on the Natanz enrichment facility and begins enrichment.
The IAEA refers Iran to the UN Security Council, which in July passes the first of seven
resolutions.

In August, Ahmadinejad inaugurates a heavy water plant at Arak, raising fears Iran might
be seeking weapons-grade plutonium.
December’s 2nd UN Security Council
resolution comes with sanctions
attached. The US and EU follow suit.

By November 2007, Iran says it has at

least 3,000 centrifuges, which in
theory would allow it to produce
enough enriched uranium for a
nuclear bomb in less than a year. In
2015 it had almost 20,000, of which
half were active.
2009-2012: Advances and allegations

In September 2009, US, French and British leaders announce Iran is building an
undeclared enrichment site at Fordo, built into a mountain near Qom.

The United Nations Security

Council voting on the Iran
nuclear deal (Screen capture:
UN Webcast)
2009-2012: Advances and allegations (cont.)
In October, Iran agrees to swap low-enriched uranium for reactor fuel. But the deal
unravels and in February 2010 Iran begins enriching uranium to close to bomb-grade —
providing isotopes for medical use, it says.

In 2011, the Russian-completed Bushehr power reactor — first begun by Germany’s

Siemens — begins operating. In November 2011, an IAEA report, collating “broadly
credible” intelligence, says that at least until 2003 Iran “carried out activities relevant to
the development of a nuclear explosive device.”

The following month the US Congress passes legislation sanctioning lenders who deal
with Iran’s central bank.

In January 2012, the EU bans all member states from importing Iranian oil. Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country is widely assumed to have nuclear
weapons, brandishes a diagram of a bomb at the UN General Assembly, calling for a
“clear red line” to be drawn under Iran’s program.
2013: Interim accord

Newly-elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani vows in 2013 he is ready for “serious”
negotiations.

After secret negotiations in Oman between US and Iranian representatives, Rouhani and
US President Barack Obama have an unprecedented phone conversation.

In November, an interim deal is agreed freezing some of Iran’s nuclear activities in

exchange for minor sanctions relief. Two deadlines — July and November 2014 — to
agree on a final deal are missed. In April 2015, Iran and major powers agree in Lausanne,
Switzerland on the main outlines of a final deal.
2015: “Historic” accord
On July 14, the accord is finally concluded in Vienna, ending
12 years of crisis and 21 months of protracted negotiations.

President Barack Obama and Vice

President Joe Biden with members of
the national security team participate in
a secure video teleconference from the
Situation Room of the White House
with Secretary of State John Kerry,
Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and
the US negotiating team in Lausanne,
Switzerland, to discuss the P5+1
negotiations with Iran, March 31, 2015.
(White House/Pete Souza)
 2015: “Historic” accord (contd.)

The accord provides Tehran

relief from crippling
economic sanctions in
exchange for limits on its
nuclear program. In mid-
December, the IAEA draws a
line under a long-running
probe into Iran’s past efforts
to develop nuclear weapons,
removing an important
obstacle to implementing the
July deal.
2015: “Historic” accord (contd.)
President Obama announces Historic
Nuclear Deal with Iran:

The Iran Nuclear Deal for Dummies^

2016: Implementing the deal

January 14: Iran says it has removed

the core of its Arak heavy water reactor
and filled part of it with concrete,
paving the way for UN nuclear
inspectors to announce Tehran has met
its commitments.

January 16: The International Atomic

Energy Agency confirms that Iran has
“carried out all measures required under
the (July deal)… to enable
Implementation Day to occur.
United States-Iran Relations
Iran would redesign, convert, and reduce its
nuclear facilities and accept the additional
protocol (with provisional application) in order
to lift all nuclear-related economical sanctions,
freeing up tens of billions of dollars in oil
revenue and frozen assets. 5% of Americans
view Iranian influence positively, with 87%
expressing a negative view, the most
unfavorable perception of Iran in the world.

Research has shown that most Iranians hold a positive attitude about the American people, though not the
U.S. government. Relations tend to improve when the two countries have overlapping goals, such as
repelling Sunni militants.

President Trump’s trusted advisor, Stephen Bannon, believes the U.S. is engaged in a civilizational
struggle likely to lead to another major shooting war in the Middle East.
United States-Iran Relations (contd.)
The Iranian government began its nuclear program in the 1960s to produce nuclear fuel with
US support. In 1968 Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the
international treaty that regulates international nuclear activities and aims to prevent the
proliferation, or spread, of nuclear weapons.

In 1979, a popular revolution overthrew Iran’s U.S.-backed government and established an

Islamic Republic. Under this political system, Iranians elect their president and legislators,
but Islamic clerics have final say over all government decisions. U.S.-Iranian relations
quickly deteriorated after Iranians took American diplomats hostage at the end of 1979. The
relationship has never recovered.

Iran continued to allow regular inspections of its nuclear program by monitors from the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Then, in 2003, Iran admitted it had been
secretly enriching uranium—a process that is necessary to create both nuclear power and
nuclear weapons. In the face of international condemnation, Iran voluntarily suspended its
enrichment program. But the suspension was short lived. In 2006, when a deal with the
international community wasn’t achieved, Iran began enriching uranium again.
 United States-Iran Relations (contd.)
Iran’s President has staunchly defended Iran’s right to a nuclear program on the basis that it is
only developing nuclear materials for peaceful purposes, a right protected under the NPT.

It is difficult to distinguish between “good atoms” for peaceful purposes like nuclear power
and “bad atoms” for military purposes. Many foreign leaders have pressed Iran to obtain
nuclear fuel from other countries rather than produce the fuel itself. The U.S. has labeled the
Iranian government a state sponsor of terrorism for its support of radical Islamic groups like
Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian Territories. The U.S. accuses the Iranian
government of human rights violations against Iranians.

During a contested Iranian presidential election in 2009, hundreds of thousands of Iranians

took to the streets to protest the government. In the crackdown that followed, security forces
killed dozens and arrested thousands more. The Iranian government later admitted that some
of those arrested were tortured in prison. President Obama condemned Iran’s leaders for the
violence.
U.S. Policy Concerns
Iranian leaders have taken a hostile stance towards
Israel, and Israeli leaders consider Iran to be one of the
greatest threats to their country’s security. Some
observers fear that the Israelis will launch their own
attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the U.S. government
does not take a strong enough stance against Iran’s
nuclear aspirations. This could force the U.S., a key
Israeli ally, into a military conflict that could potentially
spark a bigger, regional war.
An eruption of democratic protests in
countries across the Middle East--known as
the Arab Spring-- have threatened and even
toppled Middle Eastern leaders, some of them
important U.S. allies. Iran has been looking to
extend its influence across the region during
this period of transition. The U.S. must
consider the effects that our policies towards
Iran may have on this increasingly turbulent
and economically vital region.
U.S. Policy Concerns (contd.)

Economies of the U.S. and U.S. allies

are closely tied to the oil that flows from the
Persian Gulf.

The continued flow of oil at steady prices is

a critical part of the U.S. economic recovery
from the financial crisis. Some observers
warn that any increase in oil prices could
plunge the global economy back into
recession.

We must consider the effect on oil flow that

any policy toward Iran will have.
Position Summary:
The emphasis will be on rigorous enforcement. Minor Iranian transgressions, such as the
recent breach of the amount of heavy water Iran is allowed to hold for its reactors, will not be
tolerated. Should Iran be caught deliberately cheating, The U.S. will persuade other
signatories to the deal (France, Germany, Britain and the EU, but probably not Russia or
China) that some sanctions should “snap back”.

The nuclear deal only lifted nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. Others remain in place, relating
to ballistic-missile activity, support for terrorism, and human-rights abuses. More could be
imposed for further missile tests or violations of UN embargoes on arming Hizbullah in Syria
and the Houthis in Yemen. The U.S. also maintains strict rules about illicit financial activity—
Iran is believed by many to be a serial offender—and doing business with any commercial
entities linked to the Revolutionary Guards, who have fingers in most of the Iranian economy.
Nor does the Trump administration have to strain, as John Kerry did, to reassure international
banks that they would not be penalized for financing deals in Iran.
Curb Iran's Nuclear Programs
The deal stops Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and limits Iran's nuclear programs.
Iran has agreed to turn its Fordow facility into a research center where Iranian and world
scientists can work together. Fordow has been at the center of international worry because
experts believe that Iran is enriching uranium in centrifuges there. The facility is located
underground, which would make it less vulnerable to a military strike.

Iran has agreed to rebuild its Arak heavy-water reactor, which is currently the only site in
Iran capable of starting production on weapons-grade plutonium. Under the deal, the site
would be rebuilt using a design approved by the international community. The design's
point would be to make the production of weapons-grade plutonium impossible.

The agreement also calls for Iran to give up most of its centrifuges. Iran would go from
having 20,000 to 6,104 centrifuges to enrich uranium for the next 10 years. Iran also
agreed to give up its most advanced centrifuges and use only their oldest models.
But The Deal Still Allows Iran To Continue Enrichment
This part of the deal is most troubling to Mr. Tillerson because it can be seen as a big win
for Iran. Iran persists that its nuclear program is being used for peaceful purposes.
Peaceful or not, Tillerson and President Trump see this as a threat to the American people.
The deal allows Iran to continue enriching uranium in its Natanz facility, but Iran is only
allowed to enrich to no more than 3.67 percent, which is enough for civilian purposes such
as power plants, and much lower than what's needed for a weapon.
Another big part of the deal is that Iran has agreed to reduce its stockpile of
uranium by 98%
Iran currently has 10,000 kg of enriched uranium. The country also has some
additional uranium that is enriched at 20 percent. Iran could keep 300 kg — enriched
at no more than 3.67 percent — for the next 15 years under the deal. Iran will get rid
of what it cannot keep by shipping it to Russia. If Iran honors the deal, it would not
have the kind of fissile material it needs for a nuclear bomb, but at the same time it
does receive a nod from the international community that it can indeed keep a non-
The Deal Makes An Iranian Nuclear Bomb More Difficult:

President Donald Trump, Sec. of State Rex Tillerson,

House Speaker John Boehner, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticise the
deal because it doesn't entirely dismantle Iran's nuclear program.
This deal extends Iran's "breakout time" — or the time it would take the country to make
enough highly enriched material for a nuclear bomb. The White House estimates Iran's
breakout time is two to three months. If the U.S. or Iran were to walk away from it, the
breakout time would be a year or more.
Perhaps the biggest unknown is what happens to that breakout time once some of the
terms of this deal start to expire 10 and 15 years from now. President Obama conceded
that "at that point the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero."
This deal buys the United States at least a decade.
If Iran Doesn't Comply, Sanctions Can Return:
The Obama administration, for example, has said this deal includes a "snap back"
provision, which means UN sanctions would be slapped back on Iran if it doesn't meet its
obligations. President Trump has recoiled his plan to “rip up” the deal because of this.
The deal lays out a scheme in which if there is a dispute about Iran meeting its obligations,
the full UN Security Council would "vote on a resolution to continue the sanctions
lifting."
It Sets Up A Comprehensive Inspections Regime:
The deal provides inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency "extraordinary and
robust" access to Iranian facilities-- 24/7 access for inspectors. Here's how the White House fact
sheet describes the inspections:
"[The IAEA] will not only be
continuously monitoring every
element of Iran's declared
nuclear program, but they will
also be verifying that no fissile
material is covertly carted off to
a secret location to build a bomb.
And if IAEA inspectors become
aware of a suspicious location,
Iran has agreed to implement the
Additional Protocol to their
IAEA Safeguards Agreement,
which will allow inspectors to
access and inspect any site they
deem suspicious. Such
suspicions can be triggered by
holes in the ground that could mines,
be intelligence reports, unexplained purchases, or isotope alarms."
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson calls for a full review of the deal--increasing the deal’s
enforcement is the better option. Our first and only concern is preventing Iran from creating nuclear
weapons: Pence pledged to “never allow” Iran to develop nuclear weapons. “We told the ayatollahs of
Iran they should check the calendar, there’s a new president in the Oval Office.”

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson

said he would increase monitoring and
verification systems to ensure Iran does
not violate the agreement, which eased
international sanctions against the
country in exchange for destroying
most of its nuclear fuel production
facilities. “We need to examine our
ability to clarify whether Iran is
complying,” Tillerson told the
committee. “That means no nuclear
enrichment in Iran, no storing of nuclear
materials in Iran.”
President Donald Trump railed against the deal:
“This is the worst deal ever negotiated.”
Trump plans to undercut
the deal by imposing a
wide slate of new
sanctions against Iran.
President Trump has
been a vocal opponent
of the accord, which
curbs Iran's nuclear
program in exchange for
lifting crippling
international sanctions
against Tehran.
 Congress Has to Approve Changes to the Iranian Nuclear Agreement
“I have imposed new sanctions on
entities and individuals who support
Iran's ballistic missile program, and
reaffirmed our unbreakable alliance
with the state of Israel.
We will fight this bad
deal. It is wrong for
our national security
and wrong for our
country.”
President Donald Trump
should not touch
The Iran Nuclear Deal.
If Trump decides to follow through
on his ill-considered threat to "tear
up" the agreement, he would be
doing so alone. None of the other
signatories to
the pact -- the permanent members
of the UN Security Council --
Britain, France, Russia, China, plus
Germany -- have made any move
to follow him.
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