Professional Documents
Culture Documents
12th Edition
Chapter 5
Discrete Probability
Distributions
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-1
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:
The properties of a probability distribution
probability distribution
To compute probabilities from binomial,
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-2
Definitions
Random Variables
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-3
Definitions
Random Variables
Random
Variables
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-4
Discrete Random Variables
Can only assume a countable number of values
Examples:
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-6
Example of a Discrete Random
Variable Probability Distribution
T H 1 2/4 = 0.50
2 1/4 = 0.25
H T
Probability
0.50
0.25
H H
0 1 2 X
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-7
Discrete Random Variables
Expected Value (Measuring Center)
Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete
random variable (Weighted Average)
N
E(X) xi P( X xi )
i 1
X P(X=xi)
Example: Toss 2 coins, 0 0.25
X = # of heads, 1 0.50
compute expected value of X: 2 0.25
E(X) = ((0)(0.25) + (1)(0.50) + (2)(0.25))
= 1.0
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-8
Discrete Random Variables
Measuring Dispersion
Variance of a discrete random variable
N
σ 2 [x i E(X)]2 P(X x i )
i 1
where:
E(X) = Expected value of the discrete random variable X
xi = the ith outcome of X
P(X=xi) = Probability of the ith occurrence of X
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-9
Discrete Random Variables
Measuring Dispersion
(continued)
σ xi E(X)] P(X x i ) 2
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-10
Investment Returns
The Mean
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-11
Investment Returns
The Mean
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-12
Investment Returns
Standard Deviation
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-13
Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions
Binomial Normal
Poisson Uniform
Hypergeometric Exponential
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-14
Binomial Probability Distribution
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-15
Binomial Probability Distribution
(continued)
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-16
Counting Techniques
Rule of Combinations
n!
n Cx
x!(n x)!
where:
n! =(n)(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
X! = (X)(X - 1)(X - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1 (by definition)
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-17
Binomial Distribution Formula
n! x n-x
P(X=x |n,π) = π (1-π)
x! (n - x )!
P(X=x|n,π) = probability of x events of interest
in n trials, with the probability of an
“event of interest” being π for Example: Flip a coin four
each trial times, let x = # heads:
n=4
x = number of “events of interest” in sample,
(x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n) π = 0.5
1 - π = (1 - 0.5) = 0.5
n = sample size (number of trials
or observations) X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
π = probability of “event of interest”
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-18
Example:
Calculating a Binomial Probability
What is the probability of one success in five
observations if the probability of an event of
interest is 0.1?
x = 1, n = 5, and π = 0.1
n!
P(X 1 | 5,0.1) x (1 ) n x
x!(n x)!
5!
(0.1)1 (1 0.1) 51
1!(5 1)!
(5)(0.1)(0.9) 4
0.32805
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-19
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-20
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-21
Can you
calculate mean
and variance
from this
distribution?
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-22
The Binomial Distribution
Example
Suppose the probability of purchasing a defective
computer is 0.02. What is the probability of
purchasing 2 defective computers in a group of 10?
x = 2, n = 10, and π = 0.02
n!
P(X 2 | 10, 0.02) x (1 ) n x
x!(n x)!
10!
(.02) 2 (1 .02)10 2
2!(10 2)!
(45)(.0004)(.8508)
.01531
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-23
The Binomial Distribution
Shape
The shape of the
P(X=x|5, 0.1)
binomial distribution .6
depends on the values .4
of π and n .2
Here, n = 5 and π = .1 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
P(X=x|5, 0.5)
.6
.4
Here, n = 5 and π = .5 .2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 x
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-24
The Binomial Distribution Using
Binomial Tables (Available On Line)
n = 10
x … π=.20 π=.25 π=.30 π=.35 π=.40 π=.45 π=.50
0 … 0.107 0.056 0.028 0.013 0.006 0.002 0.0010 10
1 … 4 3 2 5 0 5 0.0098 9
2 … 0.268 0.187 0.1211 0.072 0.040 0.020 0.0439 8
3 … 4 7 0.233 5 3 7 0.1172 7
4 … 0.302 0.281 5 0.175 0.120 0.076 0.2051 6
0 6 0.266 7 9 3
5 … 0.2461 5
0.201 0.250 8 0.252 0.215 0.166
6 … 0.2051 4
3 3 0.200 2 0 5
7 … 0.1172 3
0.088 0.146 1 0.237 0.250 0.238
8 … 1 0 7 8 4 0.0439 2
0.102
9 … 0.026 0.058 9 0.153 0.200 0.234 0.0098 1
10 … 4 4 0.036 6 7 0 0.0010 0
0.005 0.016 8 0.068 0.1115 0.159
5 2 0.009 9 0.042 6
0.000 0.003 0 0.021 5 0.074
8 1 0.001 2 0.010 6
0.000 0.000 4 0.004 6 0.022
Examples: 1 4 0.000 3 0.001 9
0.000 0.000 1 0.000 6 0.004
n = 10, π = 0.35, x = 3: P(X = 3|10, 0.35) = 0.2522
0 0 0.000 5 0.000 2
0.000 0.000 0 0.000 1 0.000
n = 10, π = 0.75, x = 8: P(X = 2|10, 0.75) = 0.0004
0 0 0 3
… π=.80 π=.75 π=.70 π=.65 π=.60 π=.55 π=.50 x
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-25
Binomial Distribution
Characteristics
Mean
μ E(X) n
Variance and Standard Deviation
2
σ nπ (1 - π )
σ nπ (1 - π )
Where n = sample size
π = probability of the event of interest for any trial
(1 – π) = probability of no event of interest for any trial
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-26
The Binomial Distribution
Characteristics
P(X=x|5, 0.5)
μ nπ (5)(.5) 2.5 .6
.4
σ nπ (1 - π ) (5)(.5)(1 .5) .2
0
1.118 0 1 2 3 4 5 x
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-27
Using Excel For The
Binomial Distribution (n = 4, π = 0.1)
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-28
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-29
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-30
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-31
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-32
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-33
The Poisson Distribution
Definitions
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-34
The Poisson Distribution
e x
P( X x | )
x!
where:
x = number of events in an area of opportunity
= expected number of events
e = base of the natural logarithm system (2.71828...)
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-36
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-37
Poisson Distribution
Characteristics
Mean
μλ
Variance and Standard Deviation
σ λ
2
σ λ
where = expected number of events
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-38
Using Poisson Tables (Available
On Line)
e λ λ x e 0.50 (0.50) 2
P(X 2 | 0.50) 0.0758
x! 2!
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-39
Using Excel For The
Poisson Distribution (λ= 3)
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-40
Graph of Poisson Probabilities
Graphically:
= 0.50
=
X 0.50
0 0.6065
1 0.3033
2 0.0758
3 0.0126
4 0.0016
5 0.0002
6 0.0000
7 0.0000 P(X = 2 | =0.50) = 0.0758
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-41
Poisson Distribution Shape
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-42
The Hypergeometric
Distribution
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-43
The Hypergeometric
Distribution
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-44
Hypergeometric Distribution
Formula
A N A
[ A C x ][ N A C n x ] x n x
P(X x | n, N, A)
N Cn N
n
Where
N = population size
A = number of items of interest in the population
N – A = number of events not of interest in the population
n = sample size
x = number of items of interest in the sample
n – x = number of events not of interest in the sample
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-45
Properties of the
Hypergeometric Distribution
The mean of the hypergeometric distribution is
nA
μ E(X)
N
The standard deviation is
nA(N - A) N - n
σ 2
N N -1
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-46
Using the
Hypergeometric Distribution
■ Example: 3 different computers are selected from 10 in
the department. 4 of the 10 computers have illegal
software loaded. What is the probability that 2 of the 3
selected computers have illegal software loaded?
N = 10 n=3
A=4 x=2
A N A 4 6
x n x 2 1 (6)(6) 0.3
P(X 2 | 3,10,4)
N 10 120
n 3
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-48
Chapter Summary
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-49
Basic Business Statistics
12th Edition
On Line Topic
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-50
Learning Objectives
In this topic, you learn:
When to use the Poisson distribution to
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-51
The Poisson Distribution Can Be Used To
Approximate The Binomial Distribution
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-52
The Formula For The
Approximation
n
e (n ) X
P( X )
X!
Where
P(X) = probability of X events of interest given the parameters n and π
n = sample size
π = probability of an event of interest
e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
X = number of events of interest in the sample (X = 0, 1, 2, . . . , n)
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-53
The Mean & Standard Deviation Of
The Poisson Distribution
E ( X ) n
n
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-54
Calculating Probabilities
λ=nπ
X 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
0 .3329 .3012 .2725 .2466 .2231 .2019 .1827 .1653 .1496 .1353
l .3662 .3614 .3543 .3452 .3347 .3230 .3106 .2975 .2842 .2707
2 .2014 .2169 .2303 .2417 .2510 .2584 .2640 .2678 .2700 .2707
3 .0738 .0867 .0998 .1128 .1255 .1378 .1496 .1607 .1710 .1804
4 .0203 .0260 .0324 .0395 .0471 .0551 .0636 .0723 .0812 .0902
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-55
Youtube links
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrOXRvG9o
YE
Full topics (13 videos)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHcrna8Fk1
8&list=PLvxOuBpazmsNIHP5cz37oOPZx0JKyN
szN
Copyright: jbstatistics
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-56
Topic Summary
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-57