Chapter 4

Probability
 Learning Outcome
 Apply probabilistic distribution theory
to solve problems in industry.
Contents
 4.1 Experiment, Outcomes and Sample
Space.
 4.2 Counting Sample Points.
 4.3 Calculating Probability.
 4.4 Marginal and conditional probabilities.
 4.5 Intersection of events and the
multiplicative rule.
 4.6 Union of events and the addition rule.
4.1 Experiment, Outcomes and
Sample Space
 Experiment is a process that, when
performed, results in one and only one of
many observations which are called
outcomes of the experiment.
 Sample space (denoted by S) is a collection
of all outcomes for an experiment.
 The elements of a sample space are called
sample points.
Experiment, Outcomes and
Sample Space
 Example:

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}

Roll a die once 1,2,3,4,5,6, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Take a test Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail}
Select a student Male, Female S = {Male, Female}
Experiment, Outcomes and
Sample Space
 A Venn diagram is a picture that depicts all
the possible outcomes for an experiment.

 A tree diagram is a picture that represents

each outcome by a branch of the tree.
Experiment, Outcomes and
Sample Space
 Example:
 Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the
experiment of tossing a coin twice.
H
S
HH HT H
T
TH TT H
T
T
Experiment, Outcomes and
Sample Space
 Event
 An event is a collection of one or more of the
outcomes of an experiment.
 Simple event
 An event that includes one and only one of the
(final) outcomes for an experiment, It is usually
denoted by Ei .
 Compound event
 Compound event is a collection of more than one
outcome for an experiment.
Example 4.2
 In a group of people, some are in favor of genetic
engineering and others are against it. Two persons
are selected at random from this group and asked
whether they are in favor of or against genetic
engineering. How many distinct outcomes are
possible?
 Draw a Venn diagram and a tree diagram for this
experiment. List all the outcomes included in each of
the following events and mention whether they are
simple or compound events.
Example 4.2
Solution:
 22=4 possible outcomes.

 G= Favor of genetic engineering

G’=Against genetic engineering G

S G
* GG *GG’ G'
G
*G’G *G’G’ G'
G'
Example 4.2
a) Both persons are in favor of genetic engineering.
b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.

 Solution:
 a)
b)
c)
4.2 Counting Sample Points
 Multiplicative Rule
 If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and
if for each of these a second operation can be
performed in n2 ways, and for each of the first two
a third operation can be performed in n3 ways, and
so forth, then the sequence of k operations can be
performed in n1× n2×…× nk ways.

n1 n2 n3 nk
Counting Sample Points
 Example 4.3
 How many sample points are in the sample space
when a pair of dice is thrown once?
 Solution:
Counting Sample Points
 Example 4.4
 How many lunches consisting of a soup, sandwich,
dessert and a drink are possible if we can select
from 4 soups, 3 kinds of sandwiches, 5 desserts
and 4 drinks?
 Solution:
Counting Sample Points
 Permutation
 A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a
set of objects.
 The number of permutations of n distinct objects
is n! .

1 2 3 4 n

n n-1 n-2 … 2 1

n places
Example 4.5
 How many different arrangements are
possible for arranging three letters a, b and
c?
 Solution:
 Counting Sample Points
 Permutation (cont’d)
 The number of permutations of n distinct objects
taken r at a time is
n!
n
Pr 
 n  r !
1 2 3 4 n

n n-1 n-2 … n– r+1 n-r n – r -1 … 1

r places (n – r ) places
Counting Sample Points
 Example 4.6
 Two lottery tickets are drawn from 20 for a first
and a second prize. Find the number of sample
points in the space S.
 Solution:
Using Excel
 Counting Sample Points
 Permutation (cont’d)
 The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of
one kind, n2 of a second kind,…, nk of a k th kind is

n!
n1 !n2 !...nk !

n1 … 1 n2 … 1 … nk … 1

n
Counting Sample Points
 Permutation (cont’d)
 The number of ways of partitioning a set of n
objects into r cells with n1 elements in the first cell,
n2 elements in the second, and so forth, is

 n  n!
 
 n1 , n2 ,..., nr  n1 !n2 !...nr !

1,2, …, n1 1,2, …, n2 … 1,2, …, nr

n
Counting Sample Points
 Example 4.7
 In how many ways can 7 scientists be assigned to
one triple and two double hotel rooms?
 Solution:
Counting Sample Points
 Circular permutations
 The number of permutations of n distinct objects
arranged in a circle is (n-1)!

1
n 2

6 4
5
Example:
► In how many ways can 6 committee
members be seated around a round table?

 Solution:
(6-1)!=5!=120
 Counting Sample Points
 Combination
 A combination is actually a partition with two cells,
the one cell containing the r objects selected and
the other cell containing the (n - r) objects that are
left.

1,2,3, …, r 1,2,3, … , (n – r)

n
Combination
► The number of combinations of n distinct objects
taken r at a time is

n n!
n
Cr    
 r  r ! n  r  !
Counting Sample Points
 Example 4.8
 From 4 chemists and 3 biologists, find the number
of committees that can be formed consisting of 2
chemists and 1 biologist.
 Solution:
Using Excel
4.3 Calculating Probability
 Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event will occur.
(denoted by P)
 P(Ei )= probability that a simple event Ei will
occur.
 P(A )= probability that a compound event A
will occur.
Calculating Probability
 Three conceptual approaches to probability
 (1)Classical Probability
 Applied to compute the probabilities of events for an
experiment in which all outcomes are equally likely.
 If an experiment can result in any one of N different
equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these
outcomes correspond to event A , then the
probability of event A is
n
P  A 
N
Calculating Probability
 Example 4.9
 Find the probability of obtaining an even number
in one roll of a fair die .

Solution:
Calculating Probability
The following probabilities:
 The probability that the next baby born at a hospital

is a girl;
 The probability that the tossing of an unbalanced

coin will result in a head;

 The probability that an 80-year-old person will live

for at least one more year;

Cannot be computed using the classical probability

rule because the various outcomes for the
corresponding experiments are not equally likely.
Calculating Probability
 (2)Relative frequency Concept of Probability
(Empirical Probability)
 The various outcomes for the corresponding
experiments are not equally likely.
 To calculate such probabilities, the experiment is
repeated to generate data to obtain the relative
frequency.
 If an experiment is repeated n times and an event A
is observed f times, then,
f
P ( A) 
n
 Calculating Probability
 Example 4.10
 Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars
manufactured at a certain auto factory are found to
be red in colour. Assuming that the colour of the
cars is selected randomly, what is the probability
that the next car manufactured at this auto factory is
red?
Calculating Probability
 Example 4.10 (cont'd)
 Solution:
 Let n denote the total number of cars in the
sample and f the number of red cars in n.
n = 500, f = 10
Calculating Probability
 Law of large numbers
 If an experiment is repeated again and again, the
probability of an event obtained from the relative
frequency approaches the actual or theoretical
probability.
Calculating Probability
 Subjective Probability
 Subjective probability is the probability assigned
to an event based on subjective judgment,
experience, information and belief.
Calculating Probability
 Example:
 The probability that Carol, who is taking
statistics, will earn an A in this course.
 The probability that the Dow Jones Industrial
Average will be higher at the end of the next
trading day.
 The probability that Joe will lose the lawsuit he
has filed against his landlord.
Calculating Probability
 Two Properties of Probability
 1) 0  P ( A)  1
 2)
 P( E )  P( E )  P( E )  ...  1
i 1 2
4.4 Marginal and conditional
probabilities
 Marginal probability (simple probability)
 the probability of a single event without
consideration of any other event.
Marginal and conditional probabilities
 Conditional probability
 the probability that an event will occur given that
another event has already occurred. If A and B
are two events, then the conditional probability of
A given B is written as P (A|B)
 It read as “the probability of A given that B has
already occurred”.
Marginal and conditional probabilities
 Example 4.11
 The following is a two way classification of the
responses of 100 researchers whether they are in
favor of or against genetic engineering.

In Favor Against Total

Male 15 45 60
Female 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100
Marginal and conditional probabilities
 Example 4.11 (cont'd)
 Suppose one researcher is selected at random, find
the probability that the researcher selected is
(i) a male
(ii) in favor of genetic engineering
(iii) against to genetic engineering given that this
researcher is a female
(iv) a male given that this researcher is in favor of
genetic engineering
Mutually Exclusive Events
 Events that cannot occur together are said to
be mutually exclusive events.

Mutually Exclusive
Not Mutually Exclusive
Mutually Exclusive Events
 Example 4.12
 Consider the following events for one roll of a die:

A = an even number is observed;

B = an odd number is observed;
C = a number less than 5 is observed
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are
events A and C mutually exclusive?
Mutually Exclusive Events
 Solution:
A  B  , P  A  B   0
 A and B are mutually exclusive events

A  C   2, 4  , P  A  C   0
 A and C
B are not mutually exclusive events
Independent Events
 Two events are said to be
independent if the
occurrence of one does
not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the
other. In other words, A
and B are independent
events if

P ( A B )  P ( A) or P( B A)  P ( B )
dependent Events
 If the occurrence of one
event affects the
probability of the
occurrence of the other
event, then the two
events are said to be
dependent events.

P ( A B )  P ( A) or P( B A)  P ( B )
Independent Events
 Example 4.13
 A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were
manufactured on two machines.

Defective (D) Good (G) Total

Machine I (A) 9 51 60
Machine II (B) 6 34 40
Total 15 85 100
 Are events D and A independent?
Independent Events
 Solution:
9 15
P  D | A   0.15, P  D   0.15  P  D | A 
60 100

60 9
P  A   0.6, P  A | D    0.6  P  A 
100 15

 D and A are independent

Complimentary events
 The complement of event A, denoted by A' is
the event that includes all the outcomes for
an experiment that are not in A. Therefore,
P(A)+P(A' )=1.

A'
A
Complimentary events
 Example 4.14
 Let A be the event that a person has normotensive
diastolic blood-pressure (DBP) readings (DBP<90)
and let B be the event that a person has borderline
readings (90DBP<95). Suppose , P(A)=0.7,
P(B)=0.1.

a) Let C be the event that a person has DBP<95, find P(C).

b) Let D be the event that a person has DBP90, find P(D).
Complimentary events
Solution :
► a) Let C be the event that a person has DBP<95 ,
find P(C).
C  A  B, A  B  
a ) P  C   P  A   P  B   0.7  0.1  0.8

► b) Let D be the event that a person has DBP90,

find P(D) .
b) P  D   P  A '  1  P  A   1  0.7  0.3
4.5 Intersection of events and the
multiplicative rule

Intersection of events
 Let A and B be two events defined in a

sample space. The intersection of A and B

represents the collection of all outcomes that
are common to both A and B and is denoted
by “A and B ” (or A B )
A
B

A and B
Intersection of events
 Joint Probability
The probability of the intersection of two
events is called their joint probability and
written as P (A B ) .
Multiplicative Rule
 The probability of the
intersection of two events
A and B is

P ( A  B )  P ( A) P ( B A)
Multiplicative Rule
 Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events, then
P  A  B n A  B
P  A | B   and
P( B) n B
P( A  B) n  A  B 
P ( B | A)  
P( A) n  A
given that P( A)  0 and P( B)  0 .
Multiplicative Rule
 Example 4.15
 A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are defective.
If 2 DVDs are selected at random (without
replacement) from this box,
 what is the probability that both are defective?
Example 4.15
 Solution:
Let,
G1  event that the first DVD selected is good
D1  event that the first DVD selected is defective
G2  event that the second DVD selected is good
D2  event that the second DVD selected is defective
4 3 3
P  D1  D2   P  D1  P  D2 | D1    
20 19 95
Multiplication rule for
independent events
 The probability of the
intersection of two
independent events A
and B is

P ( A  B)  P ( A) P( B)
Example 4.16
 The probability that a patient is allergic to
penicillin is 0.20. Suppose this drug is
administered to three patients.
a) Find the probability that all three of them are
allergic to it.

 Solution:
a)
Example 4.16 (cont’d)

 b) Find the probability that at least one of them

is not allergic to it.

Solution:
b)
Joint probability of mutually exclusive
events
 The joint probability of two mutually exclusive
events is always zero. If A and B are two
mutually exclusive events, then
P( A  B)  0
Example 4.17
 Find for the events A and B in Example 4.14.

Solution:
 A be the event that a person has normotensive

diastolic blood-pressure (DBP) readings (DBP<90);

B be the event that a person has borderline
readings (90DBP<95).
 A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then

P( A  B)  0
4.6 Union of events and the addition
rule
 Union of events
 Let A and B be two events defined in a sample
space. The union of events A and B is the
collection of all outcomes that belong either to A
or to B or to both A and B and is denoted by “A or
B ” (or A  B ).
Union of events and the addition rule
 Addition rule
 The probability of the union of two events A and B
is P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )
Union of events and the addition rule
 Example 4.18
 For the following data, what is the probability that
a randomly selected person with multiple jobs is a
male or single?

Single (A) Married (B) Total

Male (M) 1562 2675 4237
Female (F) 1960 1758 3718
Total 3522 4433 7955
Union of events and the addition rule
 Solution:
Bayes’ Rule
 If the events B1 , B2 , ..., Bk constitute a partition of
the sample space S, where P (Bi)  0 for i=1, 2,
3, ..., k , then for any event A in S such that P(A) 0,
k k
P( A)   P( Bi  A)   P ( Bi ) P( A | Bi ).
i 1 i 1

P ( Br  A) P ( Br  A)
P( Br | A)  
P  A  P( Bi  A)
P ( Br ) P( A | Br )
 for r  1, 2,..., k
 P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
Bayes’ Rule
Looks complicated but actually quite simple………

Assume that:
B1 B2 We know P(B1), P(A|B1 ), P(B2)
and P(A|B2 )
A We don’t know P(A).

Use the rule to get what we

want, P(A)
Bayes’ Rule
B1 B2
A

k k
P( A)   P ( Bi  A)   P( Bi ) P ( A | Bi ).
i 1 i 1
 Bayes’ Rule
Now lets twist around a little
B1 B2 What is P (B1|A):
A

P( Br  A) P( Br ) P( A | Br )
P( Br | A)   for r  1, 2,..., k
 P( Bi  A)  P( Bi ) P( A | Bi )
Bayes’ Rule
 Proof
S  B1  B2  B3  ...  Bk , Bi  B j   for i  j , P  Bi   0,
A  A  S  A   B1  B2  ...  Bk 
  A  B1    A  B2   ...   A  Bk 
where,  A  Bi    A  B j   A   Bi  B j   A    
P  A   P  A  B1   P  A  B2   ...  P  A  Bk 
 P  B1  P  A | B1   P  B2  P  A | B2   ...  P  Bk  P  A | Bk 
k
  P  Bi  P  A | Bi 
i 1
Bayes’ Rule
 Example 4.19
 According to a report, 7.0% of the population has
lung disease. Of those having lung disease,
90.0% are smokers; of those not having lung
disease, 25.3% are smokers.
 Determine the probability that a randomly
selected smoker has lung disease.
Bayes’ Rule
 Solution:
Let L be having lung disease, S be smokers.
P  L   0.07, P  S | L   0.90, P  S | L   0.253
Bayes’ Rule
 Example 4.20
 In a certain assembly plant, three machines B1, B2, B3
make 30%, 45% and 25% respectively, of the
products.
 It is known from past experience that 2%, 3% and 2%
of the products made by each machine are defective,
respectively.
 Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly
selected.
(a) What is the probability that it is defective?
(b) If a product were chosen randomly and found to
be defective, what is the probability that it was made
by machine B3?
Bayes’ Rule
 Solution:
The End
Chapter 4