ECV5602 – Statistical Method for Transportation

The Study of Vehicle Kilometer Travel Among

Malaysia Motor Vehicle Users

ASSOC. PROF. DR. LAW TEIK HUA

CYRIL CHAI TZE CHIN

GS49365
 INTRODUCTION

Vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) is a measurement of the total kilometers

traveled by all vehicles in the area for a specified time period.

Vehicle kilometer travel is a very useful measure of exposure. Exposure in

turn is an essential component of risk measurement. Exposure is basically a
measure of the number of opportunities for crashes or injuries to occur.

In Malaysia, the Vehicle Kilometer Travel indicator development was started

in 2004 and since then there have been great improvement on the method of
data collection in ensuring the reliability of the data.
 INTRODUCTION

However, the estimation of VKT is not as straightforward as the traffic flow.

VKT has always been a difficult indicator, because it is not measured directly,
rather it is always estimated.

The main VKT estimation methods can be classified into 2 categories, namely
traffic measurement methods and non-traffic measurement methods.

2 types of traffic measurement methods are odometer readings and traffic

counts while non-traffic measurement methods consist of household or driver
survey method and fuel sales method.
 OBJECTIVE

To determine annual vehicle kilometer travel (VKT) among Malaysian motor

vehicle users (motorcar and motorcycles)

To compare annual VKT between groups of motor vehicles users (Age,

household income, gender and etc.)

To investigate the impact of demographic factors (income, age, education

level) and family characteristics (household size, number of kids, and etc.) on
annual VKT.
 METHODOLOGY

PRODUCE ANALYSIS
DETERMINE QUESTIONAIRE INTERPRETATION
DATA ANALYSIS
HYPOTHESIS AND DATA AND
COLLECTION CONCLUSION
 METHODOLOGY

Sample size is at least 30 random motor vehicle users (motorcars and

motorcycles)

Estimation of VKT is using the odometer reading. The odometer reading is

first obtained from the respondents at the start of the survey then the reading
is again obtained after at least 14 days.

A questionnaire is produced and distributed to the respondents to collect data

such as gender, vehicle type, monthly income, age and state of residence.
 METHODOLOGY

A sample of the questionaire

 DATA ANALYSIS
 From the odometer reading at the start of the survey and the reading after a
certain period (at least 14 days), the annual vehicle kilometer travel can be
estimated by the following formula:
 DATA ANALYSIS

The data obtained from the survey will then be analysed using the following
methods:

• Distribution of VKT

• Descriptive Statistic Analysis

• Hypothesis Test

• Multiple Linear Regression

 DATA ANALYSIS

The data obtained from the survey is tabulated as shown below:

Odometer Reading (km)

Annual Vehicle
Kilometer
Duration Kilometer Monthly State of
No. Respondents Traveled Gender Age Occupation Type of car
(days) Travel, VKT income Residence
Start of End of (km)
(km)
survey (km) Survey (km)

1 Wilhelmina 49,573 49,837 264 32 3,012 Female E Private I Car Sarawak A Below 20
2 Kelvin 98,287 98,603 316 31 3,721 Male E Private H Car Sarawak B 21-30
3 Cherry 72,236 72,622 386 31 4,545 Female C Private J Car Sarawak C 31-40
4 Kenny 8,771 9,236 465 31 5,475 Male E Private H Motorcycle Sarawak D 41-50
5 Andy 93,289 93,857 568 31 6,688 Male E Private H Motorcycle Sarawak E Above 50
6 Albert 12,371 12,970 599 29 7,540 Male C Private I Car Sarawak F Below RM3000
7 Jason 5,903 6,634 731 29 9,201 Male C Private J Car Perak G 3000-4000
8 Steven 82,438 83,181 743 29 9,352 Male C Private H Car Sarawak H 4000-5000
9 Aline 15,143 15,938 795 29 10,007 Female C Private I Car Sarawak I 5000-6000
10 Hasnor 172,136 173,033 897 29 11,290 Male C Government G Car Putrajaya J Above 6000
11 Wemi 52,665 53,649 984 30 11,972 Male C Government I Motorcycle Selangor
12 Mike 46,755 47,741 986 29 12,410 Male C Private I Car Sarawak
13 Syahidan 90,769 91,903 1,134 28 14,783 Male D Government G Motorcycle Selangor
14 Khairshah 64,993 66,460 1,467 35 15,299 Male C Government I Motorcycle Selangor
15 Sallehudin 13,364 14,772 1,408 30 17,131 Male C Government I Motorcycle Selangor
16 Norliza 40,741 42,176 1,435 30 17,460 Female C Government I Car Kuala Lumpur
17 Cyril 101,851 103,340 1,489 30 18,117 Male C Government I Car Selangor
18 Syahida 332,832 334,324 1,492 30 18,153 Female C Government I Car Putrajaya
19 Ali 98,967 100,509 1,542 31 18,156 Male E Government H Car Kuala Lumpur
20 Hamzah 111,356 112,939 1,583 30 19,260 Male C Government I Car Selangor
21 Erie 55,709 57,307 1,598 30 19,443 Male C Government I Car Selangor
22 Mandy 77,524 79,142 1,618 30 19,686 Female C Private J Car Selangor
23 Khairul 39,859 41,492 1,633 30 19,869 Male C Government I Car Selangor
24 Faiz 35,165 36,924 1,759 30 21,402 Male C Government I Car Selangor
25 Chai Yee Ling 53,403 55,293 1,890 32 21,558 Male E Private I Car Sarawak
 DISTRIBUTION OF VKT

The Annual VKT is then tabulated into the distribution table as shown below:

Class Class Interval Midpoint Frequency

3000 - 9000 3000 - 8999 6000 6
9000 - 15000 9000 - 14999 12000 7
15000 - 21000 15000 - 20999 18000 10
21000 - 27000 21000 - 26999 24000 8
27000 - 33000 27000 - 32999 30000 2
33000 - 39000 33000 - 38999 36000 2
Total     35
 DISTRIBUTION OF VKT

The histogram chart is then plotted:

Histogram
12

10
10

8
8
7
Frequency

6
6

2 2
2

0
6000 12000 18000 24000 30000 36000

Annual VKT

The histogram shows that the data is normally distributed

 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC ANALYSIS

The result for descriptive statistic analysis is as shown below:

Descriptive Statistics
Mean 17488.2857
Standard Error 1472.7303
Median 18153
Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 8712.78993
Sample Variance 75912708.3
Kurtosis -0.1162166
Skewness 0.30597655
Range 35779
Minimum 3012
Maximum 38791
Sum 612090
Count 35
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Ho : There is no significant difference in the average of annual VKT between

male and female drivers.
Ho : µ1 - µ2 = 0

H1 : There is a significant difference in the average of annual VKT between

male and female drivers.
H1 : µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0

*Note: 1 = male and 2 = female

 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Population normally distributed; large sample size > 30; population variance
unknown; population variance equal

Assume level of significance = 0.05

Ho : µ1 - µ2= 0, H1 : µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Degree of Freedom, df = 35 – 2 = 33

Critical Region :
t < t0.025, 33 = -2.034
t > t0.025, 33 = 2.034
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

The mean and standard deviation for the male and female respondents is
obtained

Male Female
Mean 16559.792 Mean 19514.091
Standard Deviation 7931.8867 Standard Deviation 10335.1725
Count 24 Count 11
 Hypothesis Test
 Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Population Variance:
 Hypothesis Test
 Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Population Standard Deviation:

 Hypothesis Test
 Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Test Statistic:
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 1 : To compare Annual VKT between gender

Conclusion :

t = -0.1617 > t0.025, 33 = -2.034

The test statistic does not fall into the critical region.
Fail to reject hypothesis null, there is no significant difference in the average
of annual VKT between male and female drivers.
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

Ho : There is no significant difference in the average of annual VKT between

motorcar and motorcycle users.
Ho : µ1 - µ2 = 0

H1 : There is a significant difference in the average of annual VKT between

motorcar and motorcycle drivers.
H1 : µ1 - µ2 ≠ 0

*Note: 1 = motorcar and 2 = motorcycle

 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

Ho : There is no significant difference in the average of annual VKT between

motorcar and motorcycle users.
Ho : µ1 - µ2 = 0

H1 : Motorcar users have higher average annual VKT than motorcycle users
H1 : µ1 - µ2 > 0

*Note: 1 = motorcar and 2 = motorcycle

 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

Population normally distributed; large sample size > 30; population variance
unknown; population variance equal

Assume level of significance = 0.05

Ho : µ1 - µ2= 0, H1 : µ1 - µ2 > 0
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

Degree of Freedom, df = 35 – 2 = 33

Critical Region :
t > t0.05, 33 = 1.692
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

This test will be conducted by using Excel software data analysis for t-Test:
Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

Test samples:
Annual VKT for Annual VKT for 15 19,443  
No.
motorcar users (km) motorcycle users (km) 16 19,686  
1 3,012 5,475 17 19,869  
2 3,721 6,688 18 21,402  
3 4,545 11,972 19 21,558  
4 7,540 14,783 20 22,326  
5 9,201 15,299 21 22,870  
6 9,352 17,131 22 23,373  
7 10,007   23 24,845  
8 11,290   24 25,173  
9 12,410   25 25,608  
10 17,460   26 28,105  
11 18,117   27 30,660  
12 18,153   28 34,809  
13 18,156   29 38,791  
14 19,260  
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

The results obtained from Excel is as shown below

  Motorcar Motorcycle
Mean 18646.27586 11891.3333
Variance 79946820.71 23135710.7
Observations 29 6
Pooled Variance 71339076.76
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 33
t Stat 1.783193687
P(T<=t) one-tail 0.04187785
t Critical one-tail 1.692360309
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.083755701
t Critical two-tail 2.034515297  
 Hypothesis Test

Hypothesis Test 2 : To compare Annual VKT between vehicle type

Conclusion :

t statistic = 1.783 > t0.05, 33 = 1.697

The test statistic falls into the critical region.

Reject hypothesis null. Therefore, there is sufficient evidence to say that
motorcar users have a higher average annual VKT than motorcycle users
 Multiple Linear Regression

The variables for multiple linear regression analysis is identified as follows:

 Dependent Variable = Annual VKT

 Independent Variable = Gender, Vehicle Type, Monthly income

 Multiple Linear Regression

The table for multiple linear regression is tabulated as below:

Annual Vehicle
Monthly Vehicle
No. Respondents Kilometer Travel, VKT Gender
income Type
(km)
Gender

1 Wilhelmina 3,012 2 4 1 1 Male

2 Cherry 4,545 2 5 1 2 Female
3 Aline 10,007 2 4 1
4 Norliza 17,460 2 4 1 Monthly income
5 Syahida 18,153 2 4 1 1 Below RM3000
6 Mandy 19,686 2 5 1 2 RM3000-4000
7 Shirly 23,373 2 4 1 3 RM4000-5000
8 Elina 24,845 2 4 1 4 RM5000-6000
9 Rohayu 28,105 2 4 1 5 Above RM6000
10 Jacqueline 30,660 2 5 1
11 Maimunah 34,809 2 4 1 Vehicle Type
12 Kelvin 3,721 1 3 1 1 Car
13 Kenny 5,475 1 3 2 2 Motorcycle
14 Andy 6,688 1 3 2
15 Albert 7,540 1 4 1
 Multiple Linear Regression
16 Jason 9,201 1 5 1
17 Steven 9,352 1 3 1
18 Hasnor 11,290 1 2 1
19 Wemi 11,972 1 4 2
20 Mike 12,410 1 4 1
21 Syahidan 14,783 1 2 2
22 Khairshah 15,299 1 4 2
23 Sallehudin 17,131 1 4 2
24 Cyril 18,117 1 4 1
25 Ali 18,156 1 3 1
26 Hamzah 19,260 1 4 1
27 Erie 19,443 1 4 1
28 Khairul 19,869 1 4 1
29 Faiz 21,402 1 4 1
30 Chai Yee Ling 21,558 1 4 1
31 Lokman 22,326 1 3 1
32 Koon Teik 22,870 1 3 1
33 Tsu Chun 25,173 1 5 1
34 Fadzil 25,608 1 3 1
35 Boon Koon 38,791 1 3 1
 Multiple Linear Regression

The results of multiple linear regression analysis using Excel is as shown

below:
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.305056376
R Square 0.093059393
Adjusted R Square 0.005290947
Standard Error 8689.709904
Observations 35

ANOVA
  df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 240189278.3 80063093 1.060283 0.380081762
Residual 31 2340842805 75511058
Total 34 2581032083     
 Multiple Linear Regression

  Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept, βo 22949.2197 10344.28268 2.21854 0.03397 1851.916072 44046.5233

Gender, β1 1399.542693 3626.659116 0.3859 0.7022 -5997.07734 8796.16272

Monthly Income, β2 -2.110329389 2186.623105 -0.001 0.99924 -4461.75755 4457.5369

Vehicle Type, β3 -6225.197314 4141.154938 -1.5033 0.14289 -14671.1385 2220.74387

 Multiple Linear Regression

Regression Line:
Y = 22,949.2197 + 1,399.5427X1 + (-2.1103)X2 + (-6,225.1973)X3

Where: Y = Annual VKT; X1 = Gender; X2 = Monthly income; X3 = Vehicle Type

From the regression formula, it can be deduced that:

1. When X1, X2 and X3 are zero, the estimated values of Annual VKT is 22,949.2197.
2. When X2 and X3 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual VKT increase by 1,399.5427 for
every 1 unit increase in gender.
3. When X1 and X3 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual VKT decreases by 2.1103 for
every 1 unit increase in monthly income.
4. When X1 and X2 are held constant, the estimated values of Annual VKT decreases by 6,225.1973
for every 1 unit increase in vehicle type.
 Multiple Linear Regression

Result Interpretation:
• R2 = 0.09
• R2 far from 1 indicate not a good fit
• R2 = 0.09 means that only 9% of annual VKT can be explained by gender,
monthly income and vehicle type
• F (1.0602) > Significance F (0.38008). Therefore, the result is reliable
(statistically significant)
• P-value for gender, monthly income and vehicle type is more than 0.05
which is not statistically significant.
• There is no correlation between gender, monthly income and vehicle type.
The regression model needs to be reanalysed using different variables
 Conclusion
• The data obtained shows that the distribution of annual VKT in Malaysia
is normally distributed.

• Gender does not significantly influence the annual VKT but vehicle types
does.

• The variables in the multiple linear regression needs to be changed to

determine which variable has correlation.

• More respondents need to be surveyed to obtained a larger data pool so

that the statistics will be more reliable.
 Multiple Linear Regression

Result Interpretation:
• The regression model needs to be reanalyzed using different variables.
• The regression formula is not viable.
THANK YOU