Impact of Electric Vehicles on All India Demand

Introduction
The concern of climatic impact due to rising emissions of harmful gases has raised the awareness
of the use of electric vehicle and this growing adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) signifies a
significant transformation in the transportation sector, carrying substantial implications for
electricity demand. As a rising number of individuals and businesses embrace the environmental
advantages of EVs, it becomes quite important to comprehend and effectively manage the
resultant rise in electricity consumption. The establishment of a robust charging infrastructure,
coupled with the ensuing impact on power grids, necessitates a thorough examination of our
existing energy systems.

The government of India has taken lots of initiatives to improve the acceptability of EVs over
conventional vehicles. Few of these are mentioned below:
 MINISTRY OF POWER (MoP):
“MoP issued a clarification stating that charging EVs is considered a service, not a sale of
electricity, meaning that no license is required to operate EV charging stations.”
“MoP issued a policy on charging infrastructure to enable faster adoption of EVs. The
policy permits private charging at residences and offices where tariff for supply of
electricity to EV charging station shall not be more than the average cost of supply plus
15 percent.”
 MINISTRY OF ROAD TRANSPORT AND HIGHWAYS (MoRTH):
“MoRTH announced that battery‐operated vehicles, both private and commercial, will be
given green license plates (GSR 749 (E))”
“MoRTH amended Central Motor Vehicles Rules (CMVR), 1989 to allow driving licenses to
be given for age group 16–18 years to drive gearless electric scooters and bikes up to 4
kWh battery size (GSR 1225 (E)).”
 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (DST):
“DST launched a Grand Challenge for developing the Indian Standards for Electric Vehicle
Charging Infrastructure. Additionally, Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has notified
general requirements for EV charging based on CCS & Chademo charging standards.”
 NITI AAYOG:
“NITI Aayog released a concessionaire Agreement for public private partnership in
operation and maintenance of electric buses in cities through Operating Expenditure
(OPEX) model. This would reduce the requirement of upfront capital as the lease would be
signed on a per‐kilometer basis.”
 DEPARTMENT OF HEAVY INDUSTRY (DHI)
“FAME, or Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric vehicles, is
currently India’s flagship scheme for promoting electric mobility. Currently in its 2nd phase
of implementation, FAME‐II is being implemented for a period of 3 years, eff. 1st April
2019 with a budget allocation of 10,000 Cr.”

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 Therefore, it is imperative to consider the evolving patterns in consumer energy behaviour
resulting from the integration of EVs. In this context, an estimation of the expected load due to
electric vehicles by 2031 has been carried out in this report.

Estimation of load requirement due to Electric vehicle by the year 2031

In order to estimate the load requirement due to electric vehicles the first step is to find the
future number of vehicles and this has been done by two methods (both differs from each other
based on final penetration EVs by 2030), details of which are given below.
The table 1 furnished the category wise number of vehicles sold from 2015‐23(based on the data
available on Vahan dashboard) and is used to calculated the category‐wise share of EVs in total
number vehicles which is further used to calculated the estimated number of vehicles.

Table1: Category wise number of vehicles sold from 2015-2023

Total Vehicles
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2‐Wheeler 138,63,140 149,26,421 165,11,065 178,57,079 170,53,289 130,89,048 127,38,201 142,65,529 156,82,651

3‐Wheeler 4,34,643 5,18,891 5,38,814 7,29,273 7,25,258 3,82,682 3,76,437 6,55,298 10,35,366
4‐Wheeler
LMV 27,59,363 28,89,159 32,36,360 33,93,757 32,37,624 29,18,346 34,94,019 38,76,075 41,46,843
4‐Wheeler
Light
4,51,846 4,81,569 5,11,344 6,52,072 5,87,097 4,67,597 4,54,749 5,53,372 5,53,564
Goods
4‐Wheeler
light
2,08,556 2,59,309 2,28,345 2,55,550 2,29,432 1,01,761 83,484 1,58,627 2,68,747
passenger
4‐wheeler
medium
25,279 29,418 27,843 37,919 36,376 22,070 32,918 31,889 30,336
goods
4‐Wheeler
heavy &
medium
48,311 54,321 51,829 45,000 45,929 27,259 15,427 32,251 48,983
Passenger
(Bus)
4‐Wheeler
Trucks 2,18,079 2,39,873 2,63,561 3,24,694 2,44,003 1,04,064 1,63,699 2,47,361 2,80,687

other 50,001 46,467 46,044 37,972 41,411 37,233 47,719 49,909 68,140

Total 180,59,218 194,45,428 214,15,205 233,33,316 222,00,419 171,50,060 174,06,653 198,70,311 221,15,317

Electric vehicles
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

2‐Wheeler 1,445 1,448 1,529 17,085 30,409 29,128 1,56,373 6,31,474 8,59,471

3‐Wheeler 5,417 46,912 83,357 1,10,188 1,33,488 90,383 1,58,134 3,50,246 5,82,525
4‐Wheeler
LMV 757 728 935 1,123 998 3,243 12,304 33,262 72,768

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 4‐Wheeler
Light
51 92 908 760 61 25 1,118 657 2,706
Goods
4‐Wheeler
light
86 80 305 614 717 961 737 4,995 9,269
passenger
4‐wheeler
medium
3 3 ‐ 4 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1
goods
4‐Wheeler
heavy &
medium
4 9 15 43 501 88 1,175 1,961 2,589
Passenger
(Bus)
4‐Wheeler
Trucks 3 8 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 26 403

other 34 567 365 451 697 853 1,790 2,503 318

Total 7,800 49,847 87,415 1,30,268 1,66,871 1,24,681 3,31,631 10,25,124 15,30,050
S OURCE : V AHAN D ASHBOARD

The following assumptions are being used in both the methodology to calculate the impact
on Grid due to Electric vehicles:
 Segment wise load was calculated in four‐time frames (based on nature of load)
morning 08:00‐15:00hrs‐ Solar hours, 19:00‐22:00hrs – Evening hours, 05:00‐08:00hrs –
Morning hours & 22:00‐05:00hrs – Night hours.
 All India CAGR of total vehicle for period of 2003 to 2023 was found to be 8.24%.
Hence expected growth of automobile has been considered as 8.24%.
 The battery & their charger details considered are as below (all data are taken from
respective vehicle company’ website):

Table2: Category wise referred battery capacity and charger rating

Technical specifications
Real Assumed
Vehicle Company Model Battery Charging Claimed % charging
Charger time travelled
category name name size time range required
range distance
2W Ola S1 air 3 kWh 0.7 kW 5 Hrs. 151 100 70 70
3 hrs. 50
3W Mahindra Treo 7.3 kWh 2 kW 130 100 200 200
minutes
4W LMV TATA Nexon 30 kWh 3.3 kW 10 Hrs. 312 200 100 40
4W Light 21.3
TATA TATA Ace 3.3 kW 7 hrs. 154 115 200 175
goods kWh
4W Light
TATA Nexon 30 kWh 3.3 kW 10 Hrs. 312 200 300 160
Passenger
ULTRA
4W M T.7 62.5 2 Fast
TATA 100kW# 100 **75 300 400
Goods Electric kWh charging
Truck
TATA 2‐3 Hrs Fast
4W Bus EV TATA 250 kWh 100kW# 200 **150 200 133
Star bus charging

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 *2‐3 Hrs
*250
4W Truck NA 100kW# Fast 200 **150 300 200
kWh
charging
*Due to non‐availability of data for EV Truck data of bus has been approximated for it.
**Assumed 25% low range in real time
Note‐1‐ 100kW fast charging has been assumed
2‐ Charger efficiency has not be taken.

The category wise charging pattern has been assumed as below (based on the nature of
customer and their requirement):

 For 2‐wheeler and 4‐wheeler LMV ‐

1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. Domestic charging is 80 % and 20% for commercial of total for 2W and 4W LVM.
3. Urban charging will be 20% during solar, 50% evening, 30% morning
4. Rural charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning

 For 3‐wheeler‐
1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. Domestic charging is 80 % and 120% for commercial of total
3. Urban charging will be 40% during solar, 30% evening, 30% morning
4. Rural charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning
5. 3‐wheeler considered to be charging 50% during morning and 30% in night by
domestic, while rest of time, 120% from commercial.

 For 4‐wheeler light passenger‐

1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. 80% of charging during night and remaining 80% from commercial charging.
3. Urban charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning
4. Rural charging will be 80% during solar, 10% evening, 10% morning

 For 4‐wheeler light goods‐

1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. 80% of charging during night and remaining 95% from commercial charging.
3. Urban charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning
4. Rural charging will be 80% during solar, 10% evening, 10% morning

 For 4‐ wheeler medium goods‐

1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. 100% commercial charging.
3. Urban charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning
4. Rural charging will be 80% during solar, 10% evening, 10% morning
5. 80% of charging during night and remaining 320% during day time.

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  For 4‐wheeler heavy & medium passenger‐
1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. 100 % commercial charging (due to charger size)
3. Urban charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning
4. Rural charging will be 80% during solar, 10% evening, 10% morning
5. Considered to be charging 80% during night while rest of time, 53% of their battery
capacity

 For 4‐ wheeler EV Trucks‐

1. 60% of total vehicle considered to be in Urban and 40% in Rural.
2. 100 % commercial charging (due to charger size)
3. Urban charging will be 60% during solar, 20% evening, 20% morning
4. Rural charging will be 80% during solar, 10% evening, 10% morning
5. Considered to be charging 80% during night while rest of time, 120% of their battery
capacity

Methodology 1:
 An annual increment of 3.5% is considered in the % penetration of the EV shares in the
total vehicles category wise to reach the desired target of 30% penetration by 2030
(based on the data of NITI‐Aayog).
 2023 is considered as base year for the annual increment in the vehicle wise share to
estimate the expected EVs
Table3: Category wise expected number of electric vehicles Increase in sales from 2024‐2030:

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2W 16,15,083 24,29,492 33,67,149 44,42,837 56,72,937 70,75,591 86,70,884
3W 4,18,954 4,80,034 5,48,334 6,24,632 7,09,780 8,04,720 9,10,487
4W LMV 2,09,261 3,77,370 5,71,761 7,95,627 10,52,503 13,46,311 16,81,392
4W Light Goods 24,860 50,519 80,239 1,14,512 1,53,890 1,98,979 2,50,454
4W light 16,209 26,381 38,119 51,613 67,072 84,728 1,04,838
4W Medium 1,270 2,748 4,461 6,438 8,710 11,313 14,286
4W Heavy Bus & 4,253 6,437 8,952 11,839 15,140 18,904 23,187
Medium Passenger
4W Truck 9,908 21,026 33,909 48,772 65,855 85,422 1,07,766
Others 1,983 4,294 6,971 10,061 13,612 17,681 22,328
EV Total vehicle 23,01,780 33,98,300 46,59,897 61,06,332 77,59,500 96,43,649 117,85,621
% penetration of
9.6% 13.1% 16.6% 20.1% 23.6% 27.1% 30.6%
EV

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 Based on the above assumption and calculation for each time frame the below results were
observed:
Table4: Year wise expected load due to EVs
Expected load due to EVs
Energy
Year MW requirement
08:00‐15:00 19:00‐22:00 05:00‐08:00 22:00‐05:00 BU
2024 293 409 385 155 1.5
2025 569 1027 865 449 4.0
2026 938 2027 1595 957 8.3
2027 1412 3469 2615 1712 14.6
2028 2007 5417 3966 2752 23.2
2029 2739 7947 5697 4119 34.4
2030 3627 11139 7860 5859 48.6
2031 4691 15088 10515 8024 66.3
Note: Energy requirement for 2‐wheeler & 4‐Wheeler private vehicles (LMV) are for weekdays only

Methodology 2:
 Annual increment in share of the vehicle type wise of EV in total number of vehicles is
calculated based on EV sales penetration of 70% for commercial cars, 30% for private
cars, 40% for buses, and 80% for 2 and 3 wheelers by 2030 could be attainable (NITI
Aayog)
 2023 is considered as base year for the annual increment in the vehicle wise share to
estimate the expected EVs

Table5: Category wise expected number of electric vehicles Increase in sales from
2024‐2030:
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2W 29,09,969 52,32,663 79,18,378 110,11,171 145,59,892 186,18,679 232,47,496
3W 4,18,253 4,78,516 5,45,870 6,21,076 7,04,969 7,98,471 9,02,595
4W LMV 3,48,641 6,79,100 10,61,652 15,02,636 20,09,087 25,88,798 32,50,405
4W Light Goods 29,223 59,964 95,572 1,36,642 1,83,831 2,37,870 2,99,565
4W light 16,908 27,896 40,579 55,163 71,875 90,966 1,12,716
4W Medium 1,089 2,356 3,824 5,519 7,466 9,697 12,246
4W Heavy Bus &
4,979 8,009 11,505 15,522 20,123 25,377 31,361
Medium Passenger
4W Truck 8,548 18,083 29,130 41,876 56,524 73,301 92,460
Others 1,700 3,680 5,975 8,624 11,668 15,155 19,138
EV Total vehicle 37,39,311 65,10,266 97,12,486 133,98,228 176,25,435 224,58,315 279,67,981
% Penetration of
15.6% 25.1% 34.6% 44.1% 53.6% 63.1% 72.7%
EV

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Based on the above assumption and calculation for each time frame the below results were
observed:

Table6: Year wise expected load due to EVs

Expected load due to EVs
Energy
Year MW requirement*
08:00‐15:00 19:00‐22:00 05:00‐08:00 22:00‐05:00 BU
2024 293 409 385 155 1.5
2025 616 1106 924 439 4.1
2026 1085 2277 1783 925 8.7
2027 1724 3996 3011 1646 15.3
2028 2555 6344 4662 2637 24.4
2029 3607 9415 6799 3936 36.4
2030 4911 13312 9490 5589 51.6
2031 6500 18148 12812 7644 70.5
Note: Energy requirement for 2‐wheeler & 4‐Wheeler private vehicles (LMV) are for weekdays only

Table7: Methodology wise expected selling of EV

Year 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

EV Total
22,96,677 33,83,247 46,28,969 60,52,354 76,73,855 95,16,062 1,16,03,908
vehicle
M1 %
penetration 9.60% 13.10% 16.60% 20.10% 23.60% 27.10% 30.60%
of EV
EV Total
37,31,020 64,81,428 96,48,023 1,32,79,791 1,74,30,896 2,21,61,186 2,75,36,765
vehicle
M2 %
penetration 15.60% 25.10% 34.60% 44.10% 53.60% 63.10% 72.70%
of EV

Table8: Methodology wise expected load of EV

Energy
MW
requirement
Year 08:00‐15:00 19:00‐22:00 05:00‐08:00 22:00‐05:00 BU
M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2 M1 M2

2024 1.5 1.5

293 293 409 409 385 385 155 155
2025 4 4.1
568 615 1,026 1,104 864 923 448 438
2026 8.3 8.6
935 1,083 2,021 2,270 1,591 1,778 954 923

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 2027 14.5 15.2
1,407 1,717 3,453 3,978 2,604 2,998 1,704 1,639
2028 23 24.3
1,996 2,541 5,385 6,306 3,943 4,635 2,735 2,620
2029 34.1 36.1
2,720 3,581 7,886 9,343 5,655 6,748 4,087 3,905
2030 48.2 51.1
3,596 4,868 11,037 13,187 7,789 9,403 5,804 5,536
2031 7,936 65.6 69.7
4,644 6,432 14,924 17,949 10,403 12,674 7,559
*M1-Based on the methodology 1 & M2-Based on the methodology 2.

Results from CEA:

As per the optimal generation mix report 2030 - The impact of EVs on all India Demand in 2029-
30 is likely to be 3 GW in Peak Demand and 15 BU in Energy requirement.

And as per 20th electric power survey of India ‐ The impact of EVs on all India Demand in 2030‐31
is likely to be 5 GW in Peak Demand and 27 BU in Energy requirement.

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Conclusion‐ Large difference in energy requirement may be due to following reasons:

1. 30 % and 72.20% of EV penetration in methodology M1 and M2 respectively, while CEA

has taken 14% penetration.
2. Distance travelled by Electric vehicles have been taken from different government
report; while in CEA it was based on their data.
3. CEA have considered only 2‐wheeler and 4‐wheeler in their report, while Grid India have
taken category wise vehicle assessment.

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