Quality Kitchens meat Loaf Mix

By: Team 4

Data Analytics for Leaders - EMBA 2020

Februrary 2021
Elyes Boukettaya , Hajer Khamassi , Jihene Zgoulli
Massimiliano Rapanelli, Majdi Ghorbel ,Zied Jamai
 Assumptions Taken

sales prom adv prom-1 adv-1 Variation Index Cold season

406,59 22,2 36 15,6 30 2 0
398,55 0 45 22,2 36 2 0
587,76 0 57 0 45 0 1
598,92 0 39 0 57 0 1
703,62 31,8 21 0 39 -4 0
387,24 21,3 12 31,8 21 -2 0
365,67 3,9 6 21,3 12 -2 1
388,71 0 6 3,9 6 2 1
372,96 8,4 30 0 6 5 0
603,3 45,3 30 8,4 30 2 0
614,73 50,1 33 45,3 30 2 1
484,38 39,6 6 50,1 33 0 1
227,76 4,2 33 39,6 6 0 0
329,13 0 6 4,2 33 1 0
308,25 0 3 0 6 -3 1
433,86 0 45 0 3 -2 1
514,98 13,8 48 0 45 5 0
404,7 17,7 0 13,8 48 2 0
245,43 0 15 17,7 0 2 1
433,2 17,4 9 0 15 1 1
627,24 37,8 54 17,4 9 -1 0
647,61 42,3 36 37,8 54 1 0
342,81 11,4 39 42,3 36 1 1

As is : Best obtained regression

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 Adjusted R2 : 16,6% model :
 And 5/6 variables have 0 within CI  Adjusted R2 : 87,7%
 And 6/6 variables are relevant
Not relevant
We select this model
 Simulation outputs
Limite inférieure pour seuil Limite supérieure pour
Coefficients Erreur-type Statistique t Probabilité
de confiance = 95,0% seuil de confiance = 95,0%
Constante 255,3216266 27,5751003 9,25913683 7,928E-08 196,8650254 313,7782278
prom 6,208218384 0,71048723 8,73797315 1,7333E-07 4,70205273 7,714384038
adv 2,52715543 0,58772608 4,29988647 0,00055079 1,281231793 3,773079066
prom-1 -3,722447745 0,66745727 -5,57705775 4,1691E-05 -5,137393949 -2,30750154
adv-1 2,877739054 0,613016 4,69439467 0,00024363 1,578203181 4,177274927
Variation Index -12,62251911 4,65284241 -2,71286194 0,01536175 -22,4861044 -2,758933823
Cold season 51,71782433 21,4926433 2,40630357 0,02855863 6,155455934 97,28019273

  sales prom prom-1 adv adv-1 index variation Coldest season

Introduced variables: sales 1            
prom 0,647 1          
Prom-1: amount spent in promotion in previous quarter prom-1 -0,082 0,457 1        
adv 0,426 0,073 -0,022 1      
Adv-1: amount spent in ads in previous quarter adv-1 0,566 0,274 0,082 0,247 1    
index variation -0,116 0,016 -0,014 0,188 0,151 1  
Variation index: economic index change between quarters Coldest season -0,121 -0,276 0,015 -0,165 -0,221 -0,225 1

Cold season: Quarter 4 and quarter 1 Correlation analysis

Sales= 255,32 +6,21 x prom + 2,52 x adv -3,72 x prom_1 +2,88 x adv_1 - 12,62 x Variation Index + 51,72 x Cold season + e
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 Answers to questions

Sales= 255,32 +6,21 x prom + 2,52 x adv -3,72 x prom_1 +2,88 x adv_1 - 12,62 x Variation Index + 51,72 x Cold season + e

Question 1:
To decide where to spend the money, current and future impact should be considered
If 1K is spent in promotion >> 1K x(6,21-3,72) =2,49 K
If 1K is spent in adv >> 1K x (2,52+2,88) = 5,4 K
The best choice will be to spend money in advertising

Question 2:
Yes, meat loaf mix is a “counter-cyclical” item because index variation has negative impact on
sales (- 12,62)

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Question 3:
Yes, meat loaf mix sales increases during cold seasons. It was figured out using dummy variable
for seasons not for quarters (+51,72)