Quality Kitchens Meat

Loaf Mix
TEAM 8
Working assumptions

 We consider that the results of advertising&promotion have a delayed effect on

Sales, thus,we added 2 variables : Previous quarter Promotion & Previous quarter
Advertising.
 We regrouped the quarters into Cold seasons (Q4+Q1) & Hot seasons (Q2+Q3),
that are reflected into 1 dummy variable, that takes 1 for hot season and 0 for cold
season.
 5 independent variables & 1 Dummy Variable
 We are going to run our linear regression data analysis
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Re gre s s io n S tatis tics

Multiple R 0,949308949
R Square 0,90118748
Adjusted R Square 0,864132785
Standard Error 49,51692907
Observations 23

Co e fficie nts S ta nd ard Error t S ta t P-value Lowe r 95 % Upp e r 95 % Lowe r 95 .0 % Up pe r 9 5.0 %

Intercept 822,3196094 227,9265654 3,607827 0,00236 339,13688 1305,502 339,1368756 1305,502343

Linear
prom 6,544032704 0,751187947 8,711578 1,8E-07 4,9515854 8,13648 4,951585394 8,136480013
prev_prom -3,492850936 0,713275543 -4,89692 0,000161 -5,0049275 -1,98077 -5,00492754 -1,98077433
adv 2,521295728 0,620593669 4,062716 0,000905 1,2056959 3,836896 1,20569592 3,836895536
prev_adv 2,870349049 0,646326889 4,441018 0,000411 1,5001973 4,240501 1,500197251 4,240500846
index -4,952678885 2,204736921 -2,24638 0,039149 -9,6265124 -0,27885 -9,626512368 -0,2788454
Season -66,62381552 22,2520686 -2,99405 0,008585 -113,79609 -19,4515 -113,7960937 -19,4515374

regression
analysis
For Cold Season:

 Sales = 822.31 + 6.54 Prom -3.49 PProm + 2.52 Adv + 2.87 PAdv

-4.95 Index -66.62 HS

For Hot Season:

 Sales = 755.69 + 6.54 Prom -3.49 PProm + 2.52 Adv  +

2.87 PAdv-4.95 Index -66.62 HS
Effect of Advertising & Promotion on Sales
 Advertising & promotion have an impact on 2 quarters:
o In the quarter in which it is launched and in the quarter following the launch.
o We should then, compare the effect of Advertising and Promotion on the sales of the 2 quarters.

 According to our regression model, the effect of 1000 $ spent on Advertising:

It will increase the sales by 2.520 $ in the launch quarter and  by 2.870 $ in the following quarter.
                             
                           => The Total effect = 5390 $
 
 
 According to our regression model, the effect of 1000 $ spent on Promotion:

It will increase the sales by 6.540 $ in the launch quarter and  will result in a decrease in the following quarter of
3.490 $
                            
                           =>  The Total effect = 3050 $
According to our regression model, the increase of the economy index
of 1 Point will result in a decrease in the sale of about 5.000$.

This confirms that the Meat loaf mix is a counter-cyclical

product and that sales are better in hard times.

Economic
Index
 Seasonal effect
For Cold Season:

 Sales = 822.31 + 6.54 Prom -3.49 PProm + 2.52 Adv +

2.87 PAdv -4.95 Index -66.62 HS

     Our regression model confirms that the Meat loaf mix sales
are 66.600 $  better in the cold season (Q4 & Q1) than it is in
the hot season.

 This confirms the seasonal effects on sales.

Happy Valentines Day

THANK YOU