Concentrating Solar Power

APS Forum
March 1-2, 2008

Mark Mehos
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
www.nrel.gov/csp
 Discussion

• DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology

Overview

• Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S.

• U.S. and International Project Development

Current Projects

• Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

 CSP Technologies and Market Sectors
•• CSP
CSP w/w/ Storage
Storage (Dispatchable)
(Dispatchable)
– Parabolic Trough
– Central Receiver
– Linear Fresnel

• CSP w/o Storage (Non-Dispatchable)

– Dish/Engine
• CSP w/o Storage
– Concentrating PV (Non-Dispatchable)
 Concentrating Solar Power:
Dispatchable Power
Parabolic Troughs: Commercial,
utility-scale deployments

Central Receiver: Pre-commercial,

pilot-scale deployments
• Up to 250MW plants (or multiple
plants in power parks) for peaking
and bulk power
• Moderate solar-to-electric efficiency
• Thermal storage offers load
following and capacity factors up to
70%
 Value of Dispatchable Power?
Meeting Utility Power Demands
Hourly Load
Solar Resource
• Storage
provides
– higher value
because power
production can
match utility
needs
Generation – lower costs
w/ Thermal because storage
Storage is cheaper than
incremental
turbine costs

0 6 12 18 24
 Operating Central Station Systems
• The Solar Energy
Generating Systems (SEGS)
at Kramer Junction, CA
(SEGS III-VII)
– Five 30MW hybrid trough
plants for a total of 150MW
Capacity
– Commissioned 1986-1988
– Performance has increased
with time

• Four additional SEGS plants

located in two locations
(Daggett, Harper Lake) for
combined total of nine plants
and 354 MW capacity
Parabolic Trough Power Plant with
Thermal Storage
2-Tank Molten-Salt
Thermal Storage

Hot
Tank

HX

Cold
Tank
 Concentrating Solar Power:
Non-Dispatchable Central Station/Distributed Power
Dish/Stirling: Pre-commercial,
pilot-scale deployments

Concentrating PV: Pre-commercial,

pilot-scale deployments

• Modular (3-25kW)

• High solar-to-electric
efficiency
6-Dish Prototypes - Sandia
 Discussion

• DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology

Overview

• Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S.

• U.S. and International Project Development

Current Projects

• Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

 U.S. Analysis Focused on
the Southwest Region

NV

UT
CA CO

AZ

NM

TX
 U.S. Southwest GIS Screening Analysis
for CSP Generation
Screening Approach
• Initial GIS screening
analysis used to identify
regions most economically
favorable to construction of
large-scale CSP systems.

• GIS analysis used in

conjunction with
transmission and market
analysis to identify favorable
regions in the southwest
 Solar Resource Screening Analysis

All Solar Resources 1. Start with direct normal solar resource

estimates derived from 10 km satellite
data.

2. Eliminate locations with less than 6.0

kWh/m2/day.

3. Exclude environmentally sensitive lands,

major urban areas, and water features.

4. Remove land areas with greater than 1%

(and 3%) average land slope.

5. Eliminate areas with a minimum

Locations Suitable for contiguous area of less than 1 square
kilometers.
Development
Southwest Solar Resources - Unfiltered Data
Southwest Solar Resources – Transmission Overlay
Southwest Solar Resources > 6.0 kWh/m2/day
Southwest Solar Resources with Environmental and
Land Use Exclusions
Southwest Solar Resources
Previous plus slope < 3%
Southwest Solar Resources
Previous plus slope < 1%
 Resulting CSP Resource Potential

Solar
Solar Generation
Land Area Capacity Capacity
State (mi2) (MW) GWh
AZ 13,613 1,742,461 4,121,268
CA 6,278 803,647 1,900,786
CO 6,232 797,758 1,886,858
NV 11,090 1,419,480 3,357,355
NM 20,356 2,605,585 6,162,729
TX 6,374 815,880 1,929,719
UT 23,288 2,980,823 7,050,242
Total 87,232 11,165,633 26,408,956
The table and map represent land that has no primary use today,
exclude land with slope > 1%, and do not count sensitive lands.
Solar Energy Resource  6.0 Current total nameplate capacity in the
Capacity assumes 5 acres/MW
Generation assumes 27% annual capacity factor
U.S. is 1,000GW w/ resulting annual
generation of 4,000,000 GWh
 Optimal CSP Sites
from CSP Capacity Supply Curves
 Discussion

• DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology

Overview

• Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S.

• U.S. and International Project Development

Current Projects

• Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

1-MW Arizona Trough Plant – near
Tucson, AZ
64 MWe Solargenix Parabolic Trough Plant
50MW AndaSol-1 Parabolic Trough Plant w/ 7-hr Storage
Andalucia, Spain
Solucar 50 MW Trough Project
Sevilla, Spain
First of 5 x 50MW parabolic trough
plants under construction by
Solucar
Solucar PS10 Power Tower
Sevilla, Spain
Solucar PS20 Under Construction
Sevilla, Spain
BrightSource Distributed Power Tower
Ausra Linear Fresnel
 CSP Projects – early 2008
Utility/State Capacity Technology -Status
(MW)
U.S. projects: enabled by 30% Arizona Public 1 Trough – completed and
investment tax credit and State Service (APS) in operation 2006
(Acciona)
renewable portfolio standards Nevada Power 64 Trough – completed and
in operation June 2007
(Acciona)
State RPS Requirement Southern Cal 500/300 Dish – signed power
Edison and San purchase agreement
Arizona 15% by 2025 Diego Gas and (SES)
Electric
California 20% by 2010 Pacific Gas & 550 Trough – signed power
Electric purchase agreement for
Colorado 20% by 2020 four plants (Solel)

Nevada 20% by 2015, 5% Pacific Gas &

Electric
170 CLFR – signed power
purchase agreement
Solar (Ausra)
Pacific Gas & 500 Tower – MOU signed
New Mexico 20% by 2015 Electric (Bright Source)
Florida Power 300 CLFR or Trough
and Light
Texas 5,880MW (~4.2%) by
Arizona Public 280 Trough – signed power
2015 Service purchase agreement
(Abengoa)
SW Utility joint Est. 250 TBD – multiple
venture (APS) expressions of interest
submitted
New Mexico 50-500 TBD – initial stages
Utility Joint
Venture
 CSP Projects – International
Country/Company Capacity (MW) Technology -Status
Spain: Solar Millenium 4 x 50MW with Trough – Andosol 1 &2 under construction.
storage
Spain: Abengoa/Solucar 5 x 50MW Trough – 1st plant under construction
Spain: Abengoa/Solucar 11MW &20MW Power Tower (saturated steam) – PS10
operational. PS20 under construction
Spain: SENER 17MW Power Tower (molten salt) – contract terms under
discussion
Spain: various TBD Projects under various stages of development due
to tariff for 500MWs of CSP capacity. Cap likely to
be raised to 1000MWs.
Algeria: Abener 150MW Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System (ISCCS)
– 25MW Solar Capacity
Egypt: TBD 140MW ISCCS – 25MW Solar Capacity, negotiations in
progress
Mexico: TBD TBD ISCCS – RFP issued
Morocco: TBD 230MW ISCCS – 35 MW Solar Capacity
Israel: Solel 2 x 125MW Trough – Northern Negev. Waiting approval from
Interior Ministry
Australia: SHP 15MW,th Linear Fresnel – under construction for integration
into feed water heaters in existing coal plant
Greece: TBD TBD Tariff for CSP recently enacted. Similar in design
to Spanish feed-in tariff
 Discussion

• DOE Laboratory and CSP Technology

Overview

• Solar Resource Potential in the Southwest U.S.

• U.S. and International Project Development

Current Projects

• Cost Targets and Market Penetration Analysis

 Cost Targets for CSP in U.S.
• Use California Energy Commission Market Price Referent (MPR) as proxy for value
– Methodology based on capacity and energy costs associated with “conventional” baseload combined cycle
generation plant and utility time of delivery (TOD) values.

• Why focus on California MPR?

– California Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) currently calls for 20% of state’s generation to come from
renewables by 2010

• 2007 Baseload MPR for plant built in 2011 = $0.10 per kilowatt hour
Allowable Price for CSP Based on Utility
Time of Delivery Factors
• Assuming dispatchable parabolic trough
systems with thermal storage and using time of
delivery (TOD) values for three california
utilities (SDG&E, PG&E, and SCE)

 $.12 - $.14/kwh for initial penetration in

intermediate load markets (California)
 Bridging the Cost Gap

0.18
Current Technology Cost
0.12
Cost Reductions
$.16/kwh (nominal) 0.11
0.16
$.11/kwh (real) 0.10
to Bridge the Gap
0.14
0.09 •Deployment
0.12 0.08 •Plant Size
0.07 •Financing

Real LCOE (2005$/kwh)

Nominal LCOE ($/kwh)

0.10
0.06
0.08 •R&D
2015 Goal 0.05
0.06 Assumes: $.10/kwh 0.04
- Trough Technology w ith 6 hours of TES (nominal)
0.03 Analysis does not
0.04 - IPP Financing; 30-year PPA $.07/kwh (real)
- California Property Tax exemption 0.02 include current 30%
0.02 - Includes scale-up, R&D, learning effects
- Barstow , California site 0.01 investment tax
0.00 0.00 credit
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Cumulative New Capacity by 2015 (MW)

Source: WGA Solar Task Force Summary Report

 Southwest Market Analysis
Regional Electricity Deployment System

• A multi-regional, multi-time-period
model of capacity expansion in the
electric sector of the U.S. focused
on renewables.

• Designed to estimate market

potential of and wind and solar
energy in the U.S. for the next 20-
50 years under different technology
development and policy scenarios
General Characteristics of ReEDS
• Program minimizes costs for each of 26 two-year
periods from 2000 to 2050
• Existing and new transmission lines
• Wind and solar (CSP) currently represented
• Conventional power technologies include hydro, gas
CT, gas CC, coal, nuclear, gas/oil steam
• Non-conventional power technologies include IGCC,
coal and CC w/ sequestration
 Cumulative CSP Capacity
No Extension of Solar ITC

140

120
Used Inregion
New Transmission

100 Existing Grid

80
GW

60

40

20

0
00

04

10

12

18

26

28

34

36

42

44

50
02

06

08

14

16

20

22

24

30

32

38

40

46

48
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
 Cumulative CSP Capacity
8-year extension with declining ITC

140

120

Used Inregion
New Transmission
100 Existing Grid

80
GW

60

40

20

0
02

04

08

10

12

14

16

22

24

28

30

32

36

40

42

44

48

50
00

06

18

20

26

34

38

46
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
CSP Capacity in 2020 with no ITC extension
CSP Capacity in 2020 with ITC extension
CSP Capacity in 2050 with ITC extension
CSP Capacity DESTINATION in 2050
 Dedicated DC Transmission

CSP Capacity Destination in 2050 ( 160 GWs Total)

after allowing free transmission from AZ & CA to NY&MD
 Summary
• CSP technologies, especially those that incorporate near-term thermal storage,
offer a combination of low-cost and high value to utility-scale markets.

• The solar resource in the Southwest is immense resulting in generation potential

of CSP greater than six times current U.S. demand.

• Capacity supply curves based on the screening analysis demonstrate that

suitable lands are located close to existing transmission, minimizing costs
required to access high-value solar resources.

• Near-term U.S. market penetration is a challenge but large based on

continuation of current investment tax credit and southwest state policies
attractive to large-scale solar.

• Preliminary market penetration analysis indicates up to 30 GW of U.S. CSP

capacity could be achieved by 2030 (120 GW by 2050)
 Thank You!
Mark Mehos
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

mark_mehos@nrel.gov
(303) 384-7458
www.nrel.gov/csp