University School of Business

(MBA)
SUBJECT NAME: Decision Science-II
SUBJECT CODE: 20BAT652

TOPIC OF PRESENTATION
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY DISCOVER . LEARN . EMPOWER
 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY .

Course Blooms Taxonomy

After undergoing this Course, the students will be able: Level
Outcome

To understand and remember the various probability theories Understand/Reme

CO1 related to different types of random variables mber
Application of graphical method and simplex procedure for solving
CO2 different types of linear programming problems for business Apply
decision making
Solution of numerical examples related to game theory, Analyze
CO3 transportation and assignment models for real life problems
CO4 To evaluate and discriminate the different decision making
Evaluate
environment

CO5
To Formulate Linear programing problems for developing the best Design/Create
solutions to real life industries problems
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 Types of Probability

CLASSICAL OR MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY

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• Let there be ‘n’ exhaustive cases in a random experiment which are mutually
exclusive as well as equally likely. Let ‘m’ out of them be favorable for the happening
of an event A (say), then the probability of happening

• P(A) = Number of favorable cases for event A/ Number of exhaustive cases

• =m/n

Probability of non-happening of the event A is denoted by 1- P(A)=P(A)BAR

• =1-m/n

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Remark

• Probability of an impossible event is always zero and that of certain

event is 1, e.g. probability of getting 7 when we throw a die is zero as
getting 7 here is an impossible event and probability of getting either
of the six faces is 1 as it is a certain event

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Classical definition of probability fails if
• The cases are not equally likely, e.g. probability of a candidate passing
a test is not defined.
• The number of exhaustive cases is indefinitely large, e.g. probability of
drawing an integer say 2 from the set of integers

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If a fair die is thrown once, what is the event
of?
• (i) getting an even number
• (ii) getting a prime number
• (iii) getting a number multiple of 3
• (iv) getting an odd prime
• (v) getting an even prime
• (vi) getting a number greater than 4
• (vii) getting a number multiple of 2 and 3

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• When a die is thrown, then the sample space is
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• (i) Let E be the event of getting an even number,
E = {2, 4, 6}
• (ii) Let E be the event of getting a prime number,
E = {2, 3, 5}
• (iii) Let E be the event of getting a number multiple of 3
E = {3, 6}
• (iv) Let E be the event of getting an odd prime,
E = {3, 5}
• (v) Let E be the event of getting an even prime,
E = {2}
• (vi) Let E be the event of getting a number greater than 4,
E = {5, 6}
• (vii) Let E be the event of getting a number multiple of 2 and 3,
E = {6}

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If a pair of a fair dice is thrown, what is the event of

• (i) getting a doublet

• (ii) getting sum as 11
• (iii) getting sum less than 5
• (iv) getting sum greater than 16
• (v) getting 3 on the first die
• (vi) getting a number multiple of 3 on second die
• (vii) getting a number multiple of 2 on first die and a multiple of 3 on
second die.

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When two dice are thrown
• Let E be the event of getting a doublet.
E = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}
• (ii) Let E be the event of getting sum 11.
E = {(5, 6), (6, 5)}
• (iii) Let E be the event of getting sum less than 5 i.e. sum can be 2 or 3
or 4
E = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1), (1, 3), (3, 1), (2, 2)}
• (iv) Let E be the event of getting sum greater than 16.
E = { } i.e. E is a null event.
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• (v) Let E be the event of getting 3 on the first die i.e. 3 on first die and
• second die may have any number
E = {(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)}
• (vi) Let E be the event of getting a number multiple of 3 on second
die
i.e. first die may have any number and the second has 3 or 6.
E = {(1, 3), (2, 3), (3, 3), (4, 3), (5, 3), (6, 3),(1, 6), (2, 6), (3, 6), (4, 6), (5,
6), (6, 6)}
• (vii) Let E be the event of getting a multiple of 2 on the first die and a
multiple of 3 on the second die i.e. 2 or 4 or 6 on first die and 3 or 6
on the second.
E = {(2, 3), (4, 3), (6, 3), (2, 6), (4, 6), (6, 6)}
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2. Empirical (sometimes called "A posteriori" or "Frequentist")

Suppose that we have a die which we are told is weighted, but we don't know how it
is weighted. We could get a rough idea of the probability of each outcome by
tossing the die a large number of times and using the proportion of times that the
die gives that outcome to estimate the probability of that outcome.

• This idea is formalized to define the probability of event A as

• P(A) = the limit as n approaches infinity of m/n,   

• where n is the number of times the process (e.g., tossing the die) is performed, and
m is the number of times the outcome
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3. Subjective probability

•  is a type of probability derived from an individual's personal

judgment or own experience about whether a specific outcome is
likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the
subject's opinions and past experience rather than on data or
computation.

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Links
• Video Lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48stwat7AUI
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoslgAfS6KA
• Lecture Notes:
https://web.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/probability.html

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 References
TEXT BOOKS
• T1 Levin, R., Rubin, D. 1998. Statistics for Management, 7th Edition, Prentice Hall, India,
ISBN:  9780134762920
• T2 Vohra, N. 2017. Quantitative Techniques in Management, 5th Edition, McGraw Hill Education
Private Limited, India, ISBN: 9789352606276
 
REFERENCE BOOKS
• R1 Taha, H. 2007. Operations Research – An Introduction, 8th Edition, Prentice Hall, India, ISBN:
9780131889230

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Assessment Pattern

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 THANK YOU

For queries get in touch with me at:

ajay.khurana@cumail.in

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