Post Disasters Need Assessment

Alessio Re
https://www.linkedin.com/in/alessio-re-608452138/
Master in Cultural Property Protection in Crisis Response

1. Overview
2. Culture sector
3. The assessment process
4. Serbian Flood 2014
1. OVERVIEW OF A PDNA

5
The growing number of disasters worldwide

6
 Disaster Trends
Number of events 2008 US$ billions
Disaster occurrence by type 1970-2010 Damages 1970-2010
250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 9 91 994 9 97 00 0 0 03 006 0 09 70 9 73 976 9 79 9 82 985 9 88 9 91 994 9 97 0 00 0 03 006 0 09
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 19 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Year
Year

Drought Earthquake (seismic activity)

Extreme temperature
Storm
Flood
Volcano
Damages and losses are increasing.
Wildfire

Fatalities from natural disasters

The average annual number of totaled over 3.3M between 1970-
disasters has almost doubled since 2010 and losses are increasing.
1980s.
Source: EM-DAT/CRED
Source : UNISDR Press Release 2012 Economic losses
from disasters sets new record in 2012.

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 Opportunities

• Disasters offer unique but transient opportunities for change.

• Disasters present opportunities to rectify unsafe development
and build back better.
• Risks can be reduced during recovery to avoid repeat
disaster.
• Disasters influence the collective mind-set to introduce
structural and non-structural risk reduction elements.
 Meeting the Challenges
• UN, World Bank and European Union joining
efforts to meet the challenges through the Post
Crisis agreements for assessment and recovery
planning.

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 What is PDNA ?
• It is a protocol for joint action.

• It is a methodology and a tool for assessment.

• It provides coordinated assistance to Government in assessing the

socio-economic consequences of the disaster and guides the
development of a recovery strategy.

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 What does a PDNA do?
It is a comprehensive, integrated assessment of the disaster
which assists Governments to:

• Determine effects and impacts of the disaster.

• Identify the financial requirements for recovery and reconstruction.

• Define priorities for recovery and reconstruction by geographical

areas, sectors and population groups.

• Negotiate in country and external resources for post disaster

recovery.
Sectors:
Energy
Health
Environment
Housing
Labour
Agriculture
Trade
Tourism
Water
Sanitation
Transport
Infrastructures
Culture
2. CULTURE SECTOR
“Culture is the set of distinctive spiritual,
material, intellectual and emotional features of
society or a social group, and that it
encompasses, in addition to art and literature,
lifestyles, ways of living together, value systems,
traditions and beliefs.”
 WHAT TO ASSESS IN THE CULTURE SECTOR
Culture‐Related Facilities
•Museums, Archives, Libraries,
Sites, and Assets collections
•Historic monuments and •Theatres
buildings
•Archaeological sites
•Places of worship and
pilgrimage places

Intangible Heritage
•Performing arts Natural Heritage
•Social practices •Recreational parks
•Rituals •Historical or botanical
gardens

Cultural Industries and Expressions

•Craft
•Fashion
•Danse
 four dimensions
Determine the change from the pre-disaster
baseline/sector overview, and the post disaster effects
on:
►Infrastructure and assets
►Service delivery, production of goods, and access to
services and goods
►Governance
►Risks

►Consider cross cutting issues!

Estimating the value of the effects : Understanding Damage

• Total or partial destruction of infrastructure

and physical assets existing in the affected
area. Damage occurs during and immediately
after the disaster; its value is expressed in
replacement cost prevailing just before the
event
►Example: the total number and condition of schools,
sporting facilities, libraries, museums, archaeological or
historical sites affected & their value
 Estimating the value of the effects : Understanding Losses

• Loss refer to changes in the financial flows of the sector due to

the temporary absence of infrastructure and assets, and to
increased or new demands for interventions for the affected
population; they normally include higher expenditures over and
above the normal budgetary appropriations for the sector, and
lower revenues
- loss of revenues associated to the non-availability of the culture assets;

- loss of revenues associated with cultural events;

- costs for implementing temporary emergency measures;

- loss of revenues associated to the disruption in the production of cultural goods;

- costs associated to temporary measures to ensure the continuity of cultural services and access to basic cultural resources;

- costs associated to mitigating increased vulnerabilities resulted from the disaster.

http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/press_corner/floods/20140715-serbia-rna-report.pdf
 Reconstruction and recovery needs
► First: Restore to pre-disaster situation
► Priorities are based on the most important effects defined
earlier
► Costing the needs is guided by the costs of damage and
loss
► Then add considerations for Building Back Better to all 4
elements: to make communities, services and systems
more resilient to future disasters
 Developing a recovery strategy and its costing

►Restore endangered monuments and

built heritage, reactivate interrupted
fundamental services in and ensure
access to cultural and natural sites
and institutions
 Developing a recovery strategy and its costing

►BBB: defining strategies for safeguarding

intangible cultural heritage and cultural
expressions to enhance their practice
►BBB: Address pre-existing constraints:
Socio-cultural traditions or financial
barriers, that limited access
►BBB costing: proportional, realistic, link
with the disaster affected population
 3. Assessment process
Estimating the economic value of effects

.
 Estimating value of Damage
Total or partial destruction of physical assets in each sector.
• Categorize the physical assets by size, capacity and construction
materials
• Obtain current market price for repair and construction
• Calendar of time over which repair and reconstruction will take
place
• Estimate the unit value and aggregate the total value.

.
 Estimating value of Loss
Losses are change in economic flows as a result of disaster
 Estimate the length of time over which production processes are
affected or income & revenue lost.
 Estimate the value of production lost and higher operational
expenditure
 Estimate of value increased expenditure
 Calculate current value and aggregate

.
 Estimate value of Governance processes

 Estimate increased costs for coordination needs over time

 Estimate higher expenditure for service delivery over time
 Estimate higher expenditure for temporary staff over time
 Calculate current value and aggregate

.
 Estimate value of Risks
 Estimate additional expenditures to address
secondary risks over time .
 Estimate higher costs for communications
campaigns to prevent risks over time
 Calculate current value and aggregate

. 30
 Reconstruction Needs
Financial needs for reconstruction are defined on the basis of
estimated values of damage or adopting a strategy that seeks to
introduce disaster-resilient standards, depending on availability
of funding

A “building-back-better” strategy requires quality and

technological improvement, relocation of selected strategic
activities to safer areas, improved design and construction
standards, structural retrofitting and adequate control measures
and schemes
 Recovery Needs…
EG: Tourism sector
• Temporary tax exemptions or reductions during time required to
rebuild

• Softer-term credit lines through private banking system for tourist

operators and owners that did not have insurance or had only
partial insurance, for purposes of working capital formation

• Design and implementation of information campaigns abroad to

inform tourists that the sector has recovered and is ready to
receive them
2 3 Ma y 2 0 1 4 : S e rb ia , B o s n ia & He rz e g o v in a , Cro a t ia – S a v a riv e r flo o d s
Sava
S I TUATI ON
• S ERBI A: As floodwaters are slowly
receding in the affected areas and
displaced people start returning to the
their homes, the Serbian Government
lifted the country-wide Emergency
Situation on 23 May. It was left in
effect, however, in the cities of Sabac
and Stremska Mitrovica as well as in
16 municipalities, mostly along the
Sava and Morava rivers. The number
of people killed by the floods has
C R O AT I A
BOSNIA and
HERZEGOVINA
reached 33.
• BOS N I A HERZEGOVI N A: The water
levels in Brcko, Bijeljina and Samac
are stagnant, according to local media
reports, while in the rest of the
affected area levels are decreasing;
road access is still restricted in some
areas, however, and power outages
are still extensive. According to a UN
report, there have been 24
(unconfirmed officially) deaths in the
country (as of 20 May) and 46
municipalities have been affected by
the floods. It is mentioned that the
Sava
SERBIA
Sava
most pressing concerns are landslides
and animal carcasses and debris that
pose a health risk. According to local
media, a total of 950 000 people were
displaced by the floods.
• CROATI A: On 22 May the Croatian
Government declared Vukovar-Srijem
as a disaster area; as of that day,
11 000 people had been evacuated in
the region of Zupanja. Also affected
was the neighbouring county of
Slavonski Brod-Posavina. The death
toll in Croatia remains at two people
killed.
CROATIA
BOSNIA SERBIA
HERZEGOVINA
Beograd
Floodwaters (composite of 21 & 22 May detections) as observed by
NASA/MODIS and elaborated by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory.
Floodwaters detected by Copernicus Emergency Management Service
(Observations of specific locations on 18 – 21 May)
Serbian districts affected by floods and landslides (source: Union Civil
Protection Mechanism, 21 May 2014)
Bosnia & Herzegovina districts most affected by floods (source: UN
report, 22 May 2014)
Croatian counties most affected by floods (source: Croatian Civil
Protection) BULGARIA
possible to group them in three groups: the most affected ones are Valjevo (12 records) and Obrenovac
(11 records). At a medium level we found the municipalities of Krupanj, Paracin, Smederevska Palanka
and Svilajnac (4 records each) and Kragujevac (3 records). The minor level (1 or 2 records) includes the
municipalities of Cacak, Kraljevo, Jagodina, Lazarevac, Loznica, Šabac, Šid, Trstenik and Bajina Bašta.
The following map shows the most affected municipalities in the culture sector.

24 villages affected
1.241.218 inhabitants
Cultural center of Obrenovac. The situation after the withdrawal of water. The picture up-right: small
theatar hall, the line of flooded level is evident. Two pictures down-right and down-left: Great theatar hall
after the remove of parterre seats. Damages of revolve rotation system of the theatar stage.
1. IDENTIFY DAMAGES AND LOSSES
 INFRASTRUCTURES
 SERVICES
 GOVERNANCE
 IMPROVED VULNERABILITIES AND RISKS

2. ASSESSING THE COSTS

3. DRAFTING A RECOVERY STRATEGY:

 RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS
 RECOVERY NEEDS

4. AESTIMATING THE COSTS

In terms of population, the number of inhabitans directly or indirectly affected by the damages and
losses regarding culture, heritage and community infrastructures and services in the 25 municipalities is
equal to 1.241 218.
The following table shows all the recorded effects per municipality and category.

CU LT U RAL ASSE TS C O M M U N IT Y IN F R A S T R U C T U R E S TO T

to ta l
1. b u ilt 2 . n a tu ra l 3 . in t a n g ib le to ta l c u lt u ra l 4 . h e rit a g e 5 . c u lt u ra l
m u n ic ip a lit y c o m m u n ity
h e rit a g e h e rit a g e h e rita g e a s se ts re p o s it o rie s c e n tre s
in fra s tru c t u re s

O b ren o v ac 6 1 0 7 2 2 4 11
P a r a ć in 3 0 0 3 0 1 1 4
U b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Č a ča k 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1
K rup anj 3 0 0 3 0 1 1 4
ša b ac 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
M a li Z v o r n ik 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
V e li k a P la n a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L o z n ic a 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
T r s t e n ik 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
J a g o d in a 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Š id 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
V a lj e v o 9 0 1 10 1 1 2 12
O s e č in a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
V a r v a r in 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K o c e lj e v a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K o s j e r ić 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K r a g u je v a c 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3
K r a l je v o 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
S m e d . P a la n k a 1 0 1 2 1 1 2 4
S v i la jn a c 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 4
L j u b o v i ja 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
L azarev ac 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
B a j in a B a š t a 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
G ro cka 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

TO TAL: 31 4 2 36 6 10 16 53
DAMAGES
LOSSES
RECONSTRUCTION + RECOVERY STRATEGY
The following table shows this medium-longterm logic:

Recostruction needs: Recovery needs:

Risk prevention - urban plan revision and integration - coordinated disaster risk reduction
with monitoring systems; and risk preparedness management
plan for all those villages belonging to
the hidrologic territorial system of the
Sava and the Danube rivers;
Local development - resilient driven rehabilitation - developing local development plans
investment plan for cultural heritage; and schemes;

Human capacities - provision of technical training for - capacity building programs for
heritage operators. enhancing the whole managerial
capacities of the responsibles of
heritage;

In the perspective of adopting a fully efficient and effective approach for the post-event management,
all such activities have been drafted on their capacity (and opportunity) to be linked each other.
Only an integrated recosntruction and recovey strategy, able to set up such coordinated initiatives will
be able to have a larger and long lasting impact on the sector post-disaster recovery.
!
and community service analyzed.

Reconstruction needs
Short-term Interventions:

! Provide rescue and complete the physical urgent measures as to repair endangered and
vulnerable situations of the physical heritage that could be dangerous source of other
damages and dangerous for people safety as well. These include temporary relocation of
moveable assets to safer areas, cleaning and disinfection, depris removal, structural tests and
provisional measures. This activity is particularly relevant in the houses and structures that have
been heavily flooded, for instance the Culture Centre, as well as the other assets in Obrenovac:
Sokolski Dom, Obrenovac, the Holy spirit church, the cinema, etc.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, NH, HR, CC

! Carry out an in-depth technical assessment to each of the affected sites to determine the
details of damage and required solutions for restoration work, including structural, architectural,
landscaping, utility systems and overall site integrity, and prioritizing the most fragile assets. For
example: geo-mechanic researches in case of the old structures of the church in Baric
(static instability), or in village of Bebića Luka, where the character of landslides is the
first to be examined before trying some other structural analysis. In some cases, official
inspections and assessments of the damage have already been conducted by competent public
organs/ authorities, but official evaluations have yet to come.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, HR

! Restoration and repairs of damaged heritage structures. It regards in particular the historic
vernacular buildings : library in Obrenovac, Ilovcica mill in Valjevo, vernacular old house in
Kusadak, Smedervska Palanka, etc. The measures should take into account the adoption of
appropriate techniques and approaches in order to avoid further degradation as a result of
improper technical solutions and to ensure the increased resilience of the affected heritage
assets.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, HR, CC

! Repair of functional equipment, (for instance the cultural centres in Obrenovac and Paracin)
including the functional recovery for historic buildings and the substitution of equipment where
 technical training to staff and operators involved in restorations activities. These measures
are also intended to ensure support communities that might otherwise turn to less sustainable
forms of buildings and land use, while keeping alive the historical features of places. This would
be an important excercise for local community for conserving urban historic districts such as
Tesnjar in Valjevo, O brenovac, but also for a small comunity of the authentic villige of Bebica
Luka.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, NH, HR

Recovery need
Short-term Interventions:

! Immediate reactiviation of the basic functions for cultural centres and community
infrastructures and services, by recreating festivals, shows, and cultural events. This activity is
essential especiallyfor those cultural centres that have been affected by the floods, (O brenovac,
Paracin, Valjevo) and it is of great importance in order to mitigate the economic losses, as well
as recovering the social opporunties for socialization and cutural activities that were interrupted
or affected by the floods.
Categories related to this intervention: CC, IH

! Reactivation of the interrupted services and ensuring access to heritage repositories,

cultural institutions, libraries, archives, museums, also ensuring the proper temporary rescue
measures are in place (library of O brenovac).
Categories related to this intervention: HR

! Setting up and adopting financial incentives as subsidees, credit-lines or tax exceptions for
organizations owning heritage or culture-related buildings, or active in the field of cultural
activities, in order to sustaining their full repair and reconstruction, following disaster-resilient
standards.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, HR, CC

Medium-long term interventions:

! Considering the extreme fragility and vulnerability of some of the cultural expression recorded
during the surveys, it would be strongly suggested to allocate resources for some preventive
measures to protect heritage in case of future similar events disaster events taking place, and to
develop local disaster-resilience plans by revising their existing ones. An identified need for the
government authorities is to draft a coordinated disaster risk reduction and risk
preparedness management plan for all those villages belonging to the hidrologic territorial
system of the Sava and the Danube rivers, and most exposed to flood risk. That would include
the municipalities of Šabac, O brenovac, Vinča, Valjevo, Paraćin.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, NH, HR, CC

! In the long term, it would be also worth to invest in community-based safeguarding of heritage
by strengthening the concerned subjects through capacity building programs for enhancing
the manag erial capacities of the responsibles of heritage in its various expressions, and at
the diverse levels or responsibility, including the public subjects, small companies and private
operators working in culture services, tourism, cultural industries, in order to effectively sustain
a culture based development and entrepereneurship opportunities, which represent the most
durable guarantee of taking care about culture and enhacne the community sense of belonging.
This would be good especially for all local comunities of villages and small towns , with 10000 -
50000 inhabitants.
Categories related to this intervention: BH, NH, IH, H R, CC

! 15!
6.The Sector Recovery Plan
Given the current capacity of the local government, it could be estimated that the complete
reconstruction period will require 12-18 months, assuming the financial and technical resources are
made available, while a fully operational recovery plan according to the drafted needs could be set up in
24-36 months.

The workplan for recosntruciotn and recovery has been defined as follows:

2014 2015 2016 2017-18

Reconstruction needs
short term Repair
Assessment
Restoration
medium-long term Rehabilitation plan
Monitoring
Training

Recovery needs
short term Basic functions reactivation
Service reactivation
Financial incentives
medium-long term Development plans
DRPMP
Capacity Building
Cultural tourism
comprehensively excavated Neolithic settlement in Europe, located in the urban area of Belgrade, in a
very vulnerable position on the shores of the Danube at the vicinity of the confluence with the Bolečic
river. After a survey and evaluation of the case, this place has been added to the initial list, for a total
number of 25 municipalities affected and 53 total records.

Profile(section(of(the(archaeological(site(of(Vinča,(with(the(changes(recorded(before(
and(after(the(flooding(period(

Considering the 5 analyzed categories, as shown in the following graph, most of the recorded effects
(37/ 53) are related to the cultural assets (31 for buit heritage; 4 for natural heritage; 2 for intangible
heritage), while the remaining 16 are related to the community infrastructures (6 for heritage