Demand Management and

Forecasting (Wilkins Case)

Joseph Gunawan - 29021036
Mitranti Anindya Ayu - 29121020
M. Hilmi Nurkarim - 29121199
Simon Erick - 29121289
Fire Valve Z2105
Linear : 5 + 5 + 6 = 16

Quadratic : 4 + 6 + 7 = 17

Growth Curve : 7 + 4 + 4 = 15

MA 2 : 1 + 1 + 1 = 3

MA 5 : 3 + 7 + 5 = 15

Single Exp 0.2 : 2 + 2 + 3 = 7

Single Exp 0.8 : 6 + 3 + 2 11

Fire Valve Z3000
Suggestion method: Linear

Linear = 6+7+5=18
Exponential Growth =
7+4+4=15
Quadratic = 5+6+6=17
MA2 = 4+3+2=9
MA5 = 1+5+7=13
SE0,2 = 1+2+3=6
SE0,8 = 3+1+1=5
Component Analysis

In this plot, the detrended data and the seasonally adjusted data look similar with the original observations. So we can conclude that a trend
component and a seasonal component don’t exist in the data. If the data don’t have a trend or a seasonal component we can use Moving Average
or Single Exponential Smoothing.
Fire Valve Z3000IL

MAPE = 7.2 (Winter)

MAD = 0.2 (Winter)
MSD = 0.04 (Winter)
Suggested Method: Winter Method
Fire Valve Z 3004

Fire Valve Z3004 = MA5

MAPE = 34,77 (MA5)

MAD = 10,70 (MA5)
MSD = 194,57 (MA5)
Fire Valve Z3004IL
Linear = 6 + 7 + 6 = 19

Quadratic = 5 + 6 + 7 = 18

Growth Curve = 7 + 5 + 5 = 17

MA2 = 2 + 1 + 1 = 4

MA5 = 1 + 2 + 3 = 6

SE 0,2 = 4 + 4 + 4 = 12

SE 0,8 = 3 + 3 + 2 = 8
Thank you