HUMAN PERFORMANCE

AND
LIMITATION

Decision-making and risk

Deciding Decision-making

There is no difference between deciding and decision-making?

False
A decision must be made each time
there are several possible ways of
achiving a given end. The choice
will depend on:
 The aime to be achieved

 The personal preference of the

decision-maker
PERSONALITY, BIASE,PERCEPTION
STRESS, EMOTIONS, TRAINING,PAST
EXPERIENCE, MOTIVATION, COMMERCIAL
FACTORS
Positive capabilities in the decision-
making mechanism

 Capable of making decisions very

quickly
 The capablility to be creative
 The capability to be innovative
 The aptitude to cope with novel
situation A decision is “good” when
It can be implemented within
the available time.
 WE MUST REMEMBER:
 That the commander of the
aircraft is ultimately resonsible
for any decision made in the
cockpit
The commander of the aircraft is ultimately responsible for
any decision made in the cocpit True

The co-pilot is responsible for monitoring the implementation

of the Comander’s decision False
 D. O . D. A. R. British Airways concept
of decision making

Evaluation of options in the decision-making

process involve Values and coast.
 D. O . D. A. British
R. Airways concept
of decision making
 Diagnosis -Identify the most important problem

 Options -Think throught every option to its logical

-conclusion
 Decide
-Select the best option and decide
 Assign
Assign decision and tasks to the whole crew
 Review
-Review whether situation remains the same
 THERE ARE MANY OPTIONS:

 An approach can be converted into an

overshoot
 The aircraft can be put into a hold while
the problem is assessed and solved
 Take-off may be delayed
 Speed can always be reduced
 Diversion is nearly always an option
 REMEMBER:
 FLIGHT PREPARATION PLUS BRIEFINGS BEFORE EACH
HIGH RISK PHASE OF FLIGHT PROVADE THE BEST
GUARANTEE AGAINST MAKING DECISIONS WHEN
UNDER THE PRESSURE OF TIME

Preparation is essential for good decision

making when time is an issue TRUE
 ASSESS RISK – Categories of risk
RISK FACTOR- anything that is likely to increase
the likelihood of an accident occurring
 EXTERNAL/OBJECTIVE RISK
What are the categories of risk?

 INTERNAL/SUBJECTIVE RISK
“KNOW-HOW”
DEADLINE
INTERNAL RISK INCREASES LINEARLY THE DEADLINE
FOR MAKING
AND IMPLEMENTING THE DECISION APPROACHES
 EVALUATE OPTIONS
 Each proposed course of action may
have a different anticipated set of
possible outcome(values /costs)
The choise between two loss
People are biased to choose the risky loss rather
than the certan loss
Press-on-itis Bias

The choise between two gains

The decision will be wiser, and many of lives can be saved

 If a person will tend to overestimate the frequency of
A rare but beneficial occurrence.

Negative events are tended to be overestimated when

They are well pulished

The risk of an Airprox is normally

Underestimated

People tend to be biased to make a

risky loss ruther than a certain loss even if the expected
loss from the former is greater.
Press/on/tis” is a
Common dilemma faced by all pilots
 ERRORS AND SOURCES AND
LIMITS in decision-making
process
 Confirmation bias
 Probability
 Saliency
 Over-confidence
 Fatigue/Overload
 Denial

One of possible problems of preparation is Confirmation Bias

Denial

Procrastination
Racionalisation
Hopes and desires
Refusal to admit
Status and reputation
Refusal to review
LIMITATION

Attention

Stress

Lack of experience
Personality traits and effective crew
decision-making
 EMOTIONAL STABILITY

Judgement concept
Pilot
Aircraft
Environmental conditions
Time available

Commitement
“POINT OF NO RETURN”
1.ANTI-AUTHORITY 2. IMPULSIVE

HAZARDOUS ATTITUDES

5. RESIGNED
3.INVULNERABLE

4.MACHOIZAM
 HAZARDOUS ATTITUDES
ANTI-AUTHORITY
 Follow the rules. They are usually right.
Understand the rules and the reasons for
them.
Do not accept that rules will have to be
bent to get the work done.
IMPULSIVE
 Not so fast. Think first.
Do you really understand the problems.
Reject opportunities for short cuts or to do
things that appear to be ‘better’.
.INVULNERABLE .
It could happen to you.
Carelessness and overconfidence are much more
dangerous than the calculated acceptance of risk.
MACHOIZAM
Taking chances is foolish.
Everyone can, and will make errors. Human error
is part of human nature.Control the feeling that you
have the ability and experience to do the
job without following the procedures.
RESIGNED

You are not helpless. You can make a difference.

Plan and prepare for problems before they arise;
think ahead.