Module 2

Probability

Dr S G BHAT
• (Oral Explanation is enough)
• Introduction
• Random Experiments
• Sample Point & Sample Space
• Event, Sure (Certain Events), Impossible events (Empty events), Uncertain
events.
• Equally likely events
• Mutually exclusive events
• Independent events
• Dependent events
• Complement of an event
• Probability – Range of values. (0-1). It cannot be negative.
• Classical definition of probability = n(A)/n(S). Concept of Combination. A
simple demonstration problem.
• Representation of Probability in a different fashion – Odds in favour of an
event & odds against an event. A demo problem.
• Probability of an event is written as P (A).
• Compliment of an event is written as A’ .
• P(A) + P(A’) = 1
• When a coin is tossed, the sample space is {H,T}
• When two coins are tossed simultaneously , sample space is
• {HH, HT, TH, TT}.
• Classical definition of Probability, P(A)

• = (Number of cases favourable to the event A)/(Total possible

number of cases).
• Concept of Combination.
• nCr means the number of combinations of different items taken “r” at a
time.
• Let the items be a,b,c. Number of groupings of these items taken two at a
time are ab, ac & bc. Thus the number of combinations is 3. So the number
of combinations of 3 items taken 2 at a time is denoted by 3C2 = 3.

• nCn = 1, nCo = 1, nC1 = n

• 4 factorial = 4! = 4*3*2*1 = 24
• 10C4 = (10*9*8*7)/(4*3*2*1) = 210

• 10C3 = (10*9*8)/(3*2*1) = 120

• 10C2 = (10*9)/(2*1) = 45.

• A bag contains 6 white and 4 black balls, find 1) the probability of drawing
a white ball, 2) Probability of drawing 2 white balls 3) Probability of
drawing 1 white and 3 black balls.

• Just apply the classical definition & concept of combination here.

• P (1 W) = 6/10 = 0.6

• P (2W) = 6C2/10C2 = [(6*5)/(2*1)]/[(10*9)/(2*1)] = 1/3 = 0.33

• P(1W & 3B) = (6C1*4C3)/10C4 = 0.11

• See Probability in all cases is between 0 and 1

• If odds in favour of A solving a problem are 2 to 3 and odds
against B solving the same problem are 3 to 5. Find the
probability for 1) A solving the problem 2) B solving the
problem.

• Odds in favour of A solving the problem are 2 to 3 means, the

number of favourable cases is 2 and number of unfavourable
cases is 3 and hence total number of cases is 2+3=5.
• So P(A) = 2/5= 0.4

• Odds against B solving the problem are 3 to 5 means the

number of favourable cases is 5 and the number of
unfavourable cases is 3 and hence total number of cases is
3+5=8.
• So P(B) = 5/8 = 0.625
 A demo problem

• The probability that a contractor will get

a plumbing
• contract is 2/3 and the probability that he
will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If
the probability of getting at least one
contract is 4/5, what is the probability
that he will get both the contracts.
 Conditional Probability

• Probability of an event A given that B has happened is called the

conditional probability of A given B and is denoted by P(A/B). For
example, consider a family with 2 children born one after another. The
different outcomes are (B,B), (B,G), (G,B) and (G,G).
• Now the probability that both are boys = ¼.
• P(both Boys/first is a Boy) = ½. This is called conditional probability as
the condition is first is a boy.

• Formula: P (A/B) = [P (A ∩ B)] / P (B)

Demo Problem:

The data for the promotion status and academic qualification regarding 200 employees of a
company is as follows:

MBA Non MBA

Promoted 70 26
Not Promoted 90 14
160 40

Assuming that an employee is chosen at random, find the probability that

1. He is a MBA given that he is not promoted.

2. He is promoted, given that he is a non MBA.
3. He is not promoted given that he is a non MBA.
• Solution

• 1. P(MBA/Not Promoted) = P(MBA & Not Promoted)/P(Not

Promoted) = (90/200)/(104/200) = 0.87.

• 2. P(Promoted/Non MBA) = P (Promoted & Non

MBA)/P(Non MBA) = (26/200)/(40/200) = 26/40= 0.65.

• 3. P(Not Promoted/Non MBA) = P(Not Promoted & Non

MBA)/P(Non MBA) = (14/200)/(40/200) = 14/40= 0.35.
 Multiplication Rule of Probability

• 1. For any 2 events,

• P (A∩B) = P(A)*P(B/A)
• OR
• P(A∩B) = P(B)*P(A/B)

• 2. For 2 independent events,

• P(A∩B) = P(A)*P(B)
 Demo problem

• The probability that A solves a problem is 2/5 and the

probability that B solves it is 3/8. If they try
independently, find the probability that none solves
the problem.
• Solution
• P(None solves the problem) = P (A not solving the
problem AND B not solving the problem) = P (Aꞌ ∩
Bꞌ ) = P(Aꞌ) * P(Bꞌ) = (1-2/5)*(1-3/8) = (3/5)*(5/8) =
3/8.
 Mix Problems

• 1. A husband and wife appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same
post. The probability of husband’s selection is 1/7 and that of wife’s
selection is 1/5. What is the probability that only one of them will be
selected?
• Here selection of husband and wife are two independent events.
• P(Only one will be selected) = P (H is selected AND W is not selected OR
W is selected AND H is not selected).
• P (Only one selected) = P (H∩Wꞌ) + P(W∩Hꞌ) = [P(H)*P(Wꞌ)] +
[P(W)*P(Hꞌ)]
• P(H) = 1/7, P(Hꞌ) = 1-1/7 = 6/7, P(W) = 1/5, P(Wꞌ) = 1-1/5 = 4/5.
• P(Only one selected) = (1/7 * 4/5) + (1/5 * 6/7) = 4/35 + 6/35 = 10/35=2/7
• 2. One bag contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Another contains 3 white
and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from each bag. Find the probability
that a) both are of same colour b) one is white and one is black.
• a) P(both same colour) = P(both W OR both B) = P (W1∩ W2 OR B1∩
B2)
• P (W1*W2) + P(B1*B2) = [(4/6)*(3/8)] + [(2/6*5/8)] = ¼ + 5/24 = 11/24.

• b) P (one W & one B) = P(W1∩ B2) OR P(B1 ∩ W2)

• = P(W1) * P(B2) + P(B1) * P(W2) = (4/6 * 5/8) + (2/6 * 3/8)

• = (20/48) + (6/48) = 26/48 = 13/24.
 Class work

• 3.“A” can hit a target 3 times in 5 shots, “B” –

2 times in 5 shots and “C” – 3 times in 4 shots.
They fire a volley. What is the probability that
• 1) Exactly 2 shots hit.
• 2) Only one hits.
• Exactly 2 shots hit means A and B hitting and C NOT hitting OR A and C
hitting and B NOT hitting OR B and C hitting and A NOT hitting.
 Inverse Probability

• Suppose an event has happened as a result

of the several causes. Then we are
interested to find out the probability of a
particular cause which really affected the
event to happen. Problems of this type are
called “INVERSE PROBABILITY” and
solved using Baye’s Theorem, 18th-
century British mathematician Thomas
Bayes.
 Demo Problems

• 1. The probabilities of X,Y & Z becoming managers are 4/9, 2/9 and 1/3
respectively. The probability that the Bonus Scheme will be introduced if
X,Y,Z become managers are 3/10, ½ and 4/5 respectively. What is the
probability that the manager appointed is X if bonus scheme is known to
be introduced.
• P(X)= 4/9, P(Y)=2/9, P(Z)=1/3
• P(BS/X)=3/10, P(BS/Y) = ½, P(BS/Z) = 4/5.

• P(X/BS) = [P(X)*P(BS/X)]
• ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

• [P(X)*P(BS/X)] + [P(Y)*P(BS/Y)] + [P(Z)*P(BS/Z)]

• = [(4/9)*(3/10)]
• ---------------------------------------------------------- = 6/23.
• [(4/9)*(3/10)] + [(2/9)*(1/2)] + [(1/3)*(4/5)]
• 2. A factory produces a certain type of outputs by 3
types of machines. The respective daily production
figures are Machine 1: 3000 units, Machine 2: 2500
units, Machine 3: 4500 units. Past experience shows
that 1% of the output produced by Machine 1 is
defective. The corresponding fraction of defective for
the other 2 machines are respectively 1.2% and 2%.
An item is drawn at random from the day’s
production run and is found to be defective. What is
the probability that it comes from the output of a)
Machine 1 b) Machine 2 c) Machine 3.
• P (M1) = 3000/(3000+2500+4500)= 0.3
• Similarly P(M2) = 2500/10000=0.25
• P(M3) = 4500/10000=0.45
• P(Df/M1)=1%= 0.01, P(Df/M2)=1.2%= 0.012, P(Df/M3)=2%=0.02.

• [P(M1)*P(Df/M1)]
• P(M1/Df) = ------------------------------------------------------------------
• [P(M1)*P(Df/M1)] + [P(M2)*P(Df/M2] + [P(M3)*P(Df/M3)]

• (0.3*0.01)
• = ----------------------------------------------------------------------
• (0.3*0.01) + (0.25*0.012) + (0.45*0.02)

• = 0.003/0.015 = 0.2
• [P(M2)*P(Df/M1)]
• P(M2/Df) = -------------------------------------------------------------------------
• [P(M1)*P(Df/M1)] + [P(M2)*P(Df/M2] + [P(M3)*P(Df/M3)]

• [P(M3)*P(Df/M1)]
• P(M3/Df) = ------------------------------------------------------------------
• [P(M1)*P(Df/M1)] + [P(M2)*P(Df/M2] + [P(M3)*P(Df/M3)]

• P(M2/Df) = (0.25*0.012)/0.015 = 0.003/0.015 = 0.2.

• P(M3/Df) = 0.009/0.015 = 0.6
• NOTE – P(M1/Df) + P(M2/Df) + P(M3/Df) = 0.2+0.2+0.6=1
• CLASS WORK
• In a bolt factory machine A, B C manufacture
respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their
output, 5,4,2 per cents are defective bolts. A bolt is
drawn at random from the product and is found to be
defective, what is the probability that it was
manufactured by Machine A.

• Clew – P(A) = 0.25, P(Df/A) = 0.05

• Find P(A/Df).