Understanding Below-replacement

Fertility in Kerala, India

P. Sadasivan Nair
Department of Population Studies, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana
Kerala
• Southwestern state i
n India 　
•Well-known globally f
or the unprecedented
fertility transition in th
e Indian subcontinent
towards the end of th
e last century
• Has already reached
below-replacement fe
rtility level in the 1990
s while the rest of Indi
a was experiencing hig
h or mid-level fertility
 Attempts made in this paper
• To explore the plausible factors associated wit
h sub-replacement fertility and consequent po
pulation momentum in Kerala and
• To trace their socioeconomic and health policy
implications.
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
• Derived mainly from the Sample Registration Syste
m published by the census authorities in India fro
m 1981 through 2007.
• The author’s previous work on the estimation of p
opulation momentum and age-structural transitio
n of India, including ageing
• Various published materials on relevant historical f
actors, socioeconomic and health changes pertaini
ng to Kerala
• Methodology: trend analysis, pattern recognition,
and content analysis
 Kerela’s population growth trend
• 2001: 31.8 million, which was 3.1% of the populatio
n of India
• During the 1950s: the population growth rate in Ker
ala was one of the highest in India
• By the 1970s, it began to fall significantly and subse
quently became the lowest among the Indian states.
• During 1981-1991: the growth rate dropped to 14.
3% while India: 23.9%
• In the next decade: it dropped further to 9.4% wher
eas the corresponding figures for India were 21.3%
 Kerela’s population growth trend
By 2006, Kerala had:
• The lowest birth rate (around 14.7 per 1,000),
• The lowest death rate (around 6.8 per 1,000),
• The lowest infant mortality (13 per 1,000 livebirths),
• The highest life-expectancy at birth (73 years),
And …
• The highest literacy rate (91%)
in India
 The case of Kerala is rather exceptional and even puzzling
due to the fact that the correlates or antecedents of the de
mographic transition achieved have no resemblance with t
hat of Europe.
 Results of the analysis
Fertility transition: main factors:
• The structural changes in the political economy, land refor
ms, minimum wages in agriculture, and large public invest
ments in primary and secondary education
• Historical factors as catalyst for the social change:
– The matrilineal system, followed by higher-caste Hindus, a
nd the ruling class in Kerala and its dissemination effect pla
yed an important role in giving Keralite women a unique po
sition they hold in India in terms of empowerment.
– The Christian faith in Kerala is much older than in Europe o
r America
• Large employment opportunities thrown open by the oil
boom in the Gulf States around 1970
 Results of the analysis
Population momentum
The momentum of population growth in Kerala has relatively be
en enormous due to the faster decline in fertility and mortality i
n Kerala in the recent past.
Population density: will take a staggering level of 1,101 persons p
er sq km in 2026 as a direct consequence of population growth
Age-structural transition: favouring the old.
Demographic bonus: the reduced investments in social sectors, s
uch as primary education and child health.
But: increased fiscal burdens and disinvestment in social welfar
e
Population-ageing: population aged 60+ years is likely to be 20% i
n 2026 ~ around 12% only in India
 Conclusion
• The experience in Kerala vividly portrays a typi
cal case study of the vagaries of the onset of d
rastic fertility transition in the absence of a thr
eshold level of the much-needed structural ch
anges in the socioeconomic and health fronts