THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC

TRANSITION
The theory of “Demographic Transition” postulates a three stage
sequence of birth and death rates associated with economic
development of a nation.

First Stage of Demographic Transition

• Both birth rate and death rate are extremely high

• Stage of high growth potential but low actual growth

• Birth Rate is high due to
 Widespread illiteracy
 Absence of knowledge of family planning
 Early marriage
 Deep rooted social beliefs related to male progeny, size of family
etc.

• Death rate is high on account of

 Poor health
 Inadequate diet
 Lack of medical facilities
 Poor sanitation facilities
 Unhygienic conditions

The result being that actual rate of growth of population is not high
since a high birth rate is nullified by a high death rate.
Second Stage of Demographic Transition
• Stage of population explosion
• Birth rate tends to remain high but decline in death rate
• Increase in population due to falling death rate
• Rise in income levels brings improvement in standard of living
• Overall economic development initiated
• Death rate brought down by exogenous factors such as better living
conditions, improved medical facilities, rising income levels etc.
• Birth rate however, impacted by endogenous factors such as
conservative belief system, religious ideologies, social mindsets etc.
Third Stage of Demographic Transition
• Continued economic development further changes the character of
the economy
• Transition from agrarian setup towards partially industrialized
economy
• Rapid urbanization, increase in female participation in economic
development triggering financial independence
• Need to maintain high standard of living initiates movement
towards nuclear family setup
• Thus, this stage characterized by low birth rate, low death rate,
nuclear families, improved standard of living, rising industrialisation
THEORY OF POPULATION
Malthusian Theory of Population

• Robert Malthus studied the relationship between population and

economic development
• Rapidly rising population results in lower economic development
• Leads to diminishing returns to fixed factors of production i.e. land in case
of agriculture
• Lowers the per capita income and leads to poor standard of living
• Only way to avoid condition of absolute poverty is to practice ‘moral
restraint’
Theory of Optimum Population

• If rise in population leads to increase in per capita income, better

standard of living, then population increase beneficial
• This is termed as optimum population level
• Beyond optimum level of population the per capita income starts
declining
CHIEF DEMOGRAPHIC
FEATURES
IN INDIA
• India has 2.4% of total land area but has to support about 17% of
the world population
• During 1891-1921 population grew by just 15 million which is a
negligible 0.19% per annum compound growth
• Next 30 years from 1921-1951 population grew by 110 million
which amounted to 1.22% compound growth per annum.
• From 1951-1981, there was record population growth registered at
322 million which compounded to 2.14% annually
• From 1981-2011, India entered the fourth stage where compound
growth of 1.84% was recorded.
• During the decade from 1991-2001 the population grew by 183
million with the average annual growth rate having declined to
1.61%
• We can thus say that the decadal growth rate has been declining
consistently which has come down from 24.8% in 1961-71 to
17.64% in 2001-2011
• It is expected that population growth shall continue to decline and
shall reach 0.9% in 2021-2025
• The population of India is expected to increase from 1029 million to
1401 million (2001-2026)
• The crude birth rate is expected to decline from 23.2% in 2001-05
to 16% in 2021-25, in contrast, the death rate is expected to fall
marginally from 7.5% during 2001-05 to 7.2% during 2021-25
• Infant Mortality Rate is estimated to decline further from 61% in
2001-05 to 40% by end of period 2021-25
• In terms of population density which is defined as the average
number of persons living per sq. km., from a mere 77 per sq. km. in
1901, it rose to 90 per sq. km. in 1931
• During 1961-81 density jumped to 216 per sq. km.
• By 2011, population density had touched 382 per sq. km.
• Population projections (2001-26) predict the increase in life
expectancy to become slower as it reaches higher levels
• Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are some
of the high density states with Chhattisgarh, Jammu and Kashmir,
Himachal Pradesh being states with low population density
• Inter state net migration is assumed to remain constant in the near
future as well
• Child population (age group 0-14) is expected to decline from 35.3%
to 23.3% of total population for a period 2001-26
• The youth population in the age group of 15-24 years was 195
million in 2001 which rose to 240 million in 2011.
• However, it shall register a decline to 224 million in 2026
• Urban population is expected to increase to 468 million by 2026
registering an increase of 33% from 2001 to 2026
• The literacy rate has seen an upward movement from 1981 (43.7%)
to 1991 (52.2%) with male literacy rate jumping from 56.5% in 1981
to 64.1% and female literacy rate increasing from 29.5% to 39.3%
during the above said period
• Further, male literacy has improved from 75.8% in 2001 to 82.14%
in 2011 while female literacy has improved from 52.1% in 2001 to
65.5% in 2011
• It is still far behind cent percent rate of developed nations
• India’s public expenditure on education was 3.7% of the GDP in
2005 which was below expectation
• In terms of life expectancy, in 2011-15, it was 67.3 years for males
and 69.6 years for females which improved to 68.8 years for males
and 71.1 years for females between 2016-20
• It is further projected to become 69.8 years for males and 72.3
years for females by 2021-25
• This has been a result of availability of medicines to treat diseases
ranging from plague, cholera, influenza or small pox to general
improvement in medical assistance to an average Indian
• The Infant Mortality Rate has shown a significant decline from 219
per thousand in 1916 to 58 per thousand in 2005
• A major cause being the change in attitude towards women
• However, a major cause of concern is that that in 2001, there were
927 girls against 1000 boys which has fallen to 914 girls against
1000 boys by 2011
• The Public Health System has undergone a sea change with
introduction of various public welfare plans and schemes by various
Governments
• However, India has spent only 0.9% of its GDP on Public Health
Expenditure
• India's record on health parameters is not only way behind China, it
fares badly even with respect to Sri Lanka
• Nepal and Bangladesh have a better record in comparison to India
on certain parameters related to health services
 NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY (2000)
Adopted by the NDA Government on 15th February 2000
The following measures were listed to achieve stable population by
2046
• Reduction of Infant Mortality Rate below 30 per 1000 live births
• Reduction of Maternal Mortality Rate to below 100 per 1,00,000
live births
• Universal Immunization
• Access to information related to AIDS and Prevention of
Communicable Diseases
• Strict enforcement of Child Marriage Restraint Act
• Raising the marriageable age of girls to 18 and preferably raising it
further to 20
• Health Insurance Cover for those BPL
• Elementary education to be made free and compulsory
• Compulsory registration of marriage
• Creation of self help groups at village panchayat

The Government aims to achieve population stabilization by 2046

 POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2001-2026)
• Decline in total fertility rate
• Increase in life expectancy set to slow down as it reaches higher
levels
• Inter state net migration projected to remain constant
• Population of India set to increase from 1,029 million in 2001 to
1,401 million by 2026, an increase of 36% in 25 years with a growth
rate of 1.2% per year
• Density of population set to increase from 313 to 426 persons per
sq.km.
• Child population likely to decline from 35.3% to 23.3% till 2026
• Working population likely to increase from 286 million to 468
million by 2026
• Youth population is expected to decline from 19% of total
population to 16% of total population
• Of the projected increase in population, nearly 187 million is likely
to take place in seven states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand,
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal
(termed as BIMARU states)