Demographic constraints

or dividend

Theory of demographic transition

Relation between birth and death rate with the income of
an economy.
First stage at low income level: both death and birth rate
are high leading to low population growth.
Second stage at increasing income level: death rate
reduces but birth rate continues to be high leading to
high population growth.
Third stage at high income level: low death rate and low
birth rate causing low population growth
Coale and Hoover, 1959, Population Growth and Economic
Development in Low-Income Countries, Oxford University
Press.

Second and Third Stages of Transition

Death Rate falls during the second stage as better
medical facilities are made available including
public health facilities.
Birth Rate falls during the third stage as:
As womens education increase their role and status in
society changes
Reduction in infant mortality rate through better public
health programme and better nutritional status for both
parent and child
The development of old age and social security system
reduces the economic dependence of parents on their
offsprings.

Theory of demographic transition

Birth and Death Rate Per 1000 in India

Death rate per

Birth rate per 1000 1000

1891-1900
45.8
44.4
1901-1910
48.1
42.6
1911-1920
49.2
48.6
1921-1930
46.4
36.3
1931-1940
45.2
31.2
1941-1950
39.9
27.4
1951-1960
40
18
1961-1970
41.2
19.2
1971-1980
37.2
15
1985-86
32.6
11.1
2006
23.5
7.5
Source: Census of India (Various
Years)

Theory of demographic transition

Compound annual growth rate of population
1891-1921
0.19
1921-1951
1.22
1951-1981
2.15
1981-1991
2.11
1991-2001
1.93
2001-2008
1.67
Theory of demographic transition: Evidence
from India
1891-1921: Stagnant population
1921-1951: Steady growth
1951-1981: Rapid high growth

Demographic dividend
Indias demographic dividend--the fact that Indias
dependency ratio, as measured by the share of the
young and the elderly as a fraction of the population,
will come down more sharply in the coming decades.
The distinction of population:
0-15: Child
15-64: Productive age group
65 and above: Old

More working age people in the productive age group

means more workers, more incomes, more savings,
more capital per worker, and more growth.
Population dependency ratio: 100 - (15-64 %
population)

Demographic dividend
Age wise Distribution in 2001 (%)

0-14
15-29
30-44
45-59
60-74
75+

Total
35.3
26.6
19.5
10.9
6
1.7

Source: Census of India (2001)

Male
35.6
26.6
19.4
11
5.7
1.6

Female
35.1
26.5
19.6
10.7
6.3
1.7

Demographic dividend: International

Comparison

Source: Economic Survey 2012-13

Cashing on Demographic Dividend

Creating employment avenues
Reduce reliance on agriculture
Growth of business: reduce regulation

Takes 1.5 month to get electricity connection, and

many other processes at state level, are complex.

Other Demographic Measures

Life Expectancy at Birth in years

Male
Female
1911-1920
19.4
20.9
1921-1930
26.9
26.9
1931-1940
32.1
31.4
1941-1950
32.4
31.7
1951-1960
41.9
40.6
1961-1970
47.1
45.6
1971-1980
54.1
54.7
2001
63.9
66.9
Source: Census of India (2001)

Other Demographic Measures

Literacy rate in India

Male

Female

1951

27.2

8.9

1961

40.4

15.3

1971

46

22

1981

53.4

28.5

1991

64.1

39.3

2001

75.8

52.1

Source: Census of India (2001)