UNIT 4

THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

• This theory attempts to explain why all the
developed nations have more or less pasted through
the same three states of population growth.
• Before their economic modernization, these
countries for centuries had a stable or very low-
growing population as a result of a combination of a
high birth rate and an almost equally high death rate.
• With economic development resulting in higher
income and improved public health facilities, there
was a marked decline in mortality that gradually
raised life expectancy from under 40 years to over 60
years.
• However, the decline in death rate was not
immediately followed by a decline in fertility; this
marks the second stage, which is the stage where
birth rates are high and death rates are low.
• Finally, the third stage is recorded when the force
and influence of modernization and economic
development cause fertility to decline so that
eventually falling birth rates coincide with lower
death rates, leading to little or no population growth.
THE MICRO-ECONOMIC THEORY OF FERTILITY
• In recent years, a lot of principles of economics
have been used to explain the family size decision in
deciding whether or not to have additional children.
Parents are assumed to analyse economic benefits
against cost.
• The principles of benefit are the expected income
from child labour, usually on arms, and their family
support for elderly parents.
• Balanced against these benefits are two principle
elements of cost.
1. The opportunity cost of a mother's time is the
income she could earn if she were not at home
caring for her children.
2. The cost of educating children is a trade-off
between having fewer high-quality, high-cost
educated children with higher income potential and
low-quality, low-cost uneducated children with
much lower earning potential.
• The studies show that the birth rate among the
poor is likely to fall when there is
1. An increase in education for women and
consequent changes in their roles and status.
2. An increase in female non-agricultural wage
employment opportunities, which raises the price or
cost of their traditional child-care activities.
3. A rise in family income through an increase in
direct employment and earning of husband and wife
and redistribution of income from rich to poor.
4. A reduction in infant mortality through an
expanded public health programme and better
nutritional status for both parent and child.
5. The development of old age and social security
systems to bridge the economic dependency of
parents on their offspring.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA

• With a population of 1.4 billion people, India
accounts for above 17.5% of the world population;
one of every six people on the planet lives in India.
• According to the 2023 addition of the United
Nations to the world population prospects, India will
surpass China as the world's most populous country
in 2023.
• India is currently at a stage of demographic
transition towards the third stage of population
growth, with a substantial low death rate and a
continuous fall in birth rate.
• According to data, the death rate in 1951 was
37.21 per 1,000, which has fallen to 7.2 per 1,000
according to the 2011 census. Meanwhile, the birth
rate in India was 45.6 per 1000 in 1951, which has
fallen to 21.8 per 1000 in 2011.
• The ministry of statistics and programme
intimidation has released the Youth in India 2023
report, which shows that the population share of
youth is starting to decline. Whereas the share of the
elderly is expected to increase from 2023 to 2036.
• The total fertility rate per 1000 women was 5.86 in
1951, and it grew to 6.5 in 1971 before falling to 2.2
in the 2011 census. This shows that the population
is moving towards its peak and will start to decline in
2030–2040.
• According to the United Nations Population Fund,
demographic dividend means the economic growth
potential that can result from a shift in population
age structure.
• In India, the working-age population is larger than
the non-working-age population.
• The median age in India is 28 years, compared to
38 years in China, 43 years in Europe, and 48 years
in Japan.
• While India is a young country, the status and pace
of population ageing are very different among states.
Southern states, which are advancing in
demographic transition because of their population
policies, already have a higher percentage of older
people, while Kerala’s population is already ageing.
In Bihar, the working age is predicted to continue to
increase till 2051.
• The differences in age structure reflect differences
in economic development and health in the states.

ADVANTAGES FROM DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

1. Increase in fiscal space
• Fiscal resources can be diverted from spending on
children to investing in modern physical and human
infrastructure that will increase the economic
sustainability of India.
2. Rise in the work force
• With more than 65% of the working-age
population, India can rise as an economic
superpower, supplying more than half of Asia’s
potential work force over the coming decades.
• Due to the increase in the labour force, the
productivity of the economy will also advance.
• Also, the rise in women’s work force will result in
an automatic decline in fertility.

Challenges Associated with Demographic Diversity

• Unfulfilled educational requirements
With over 95% of India’s children attaining
primary school, the national family health
survey confirms that poor infrastructure in
government schools, malnutrition, and scarcity
of teachers have resulted in poor learning
outcomes.
The gender inequality in education is a concern
in India, as boys are more likely to be enrolled in
secondary and tertiary school than girls.