Chapter 6: Probability

 
• Definition - chance of an event occurring.
• Probability experiment – a chance process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
• Outcome – result of a single trial
• Tree diagram – a device consisting of line segments from a starting point and
also from the outcome point. Used to determine all outcomes of an experiment
• Event – consist of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment
• Completion rule – set of sample space not included in the outcomes of an event
• 1 – P(A)
• Sample space - set of ALL possible outcomes
• The range of values of a probability is 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
•  
• If P(A) = 1 event A is sure to happen (ex: grow older, death)
• If P(A) = 0 event A will not happen (ex: human cant walk on water/ocean,
men get pregnant, human fly)
Experiment outcome

Throwing a dice {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Selecting gender in a classroom {Male, Female}
Throwing a coin {Head, Tail}
Throwing two coins {HT, TT, HH, TH}
Throwing a coin and a dice {(H,1), (H,2)….(H,6), (T,1), (T,2)…
(T,6)}
 Classical probability 0≤ p ≤ 1
• P(A) =

• Ex1: when a single dice is drawn find the probability of getting an odd
number more than 4
• S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} , n(S) = 6
• A = getting an odd number more than 4
• A = {5} , n (A) = 1
• P(A) =
•  
• Ex2: A bag has 20 cards. The cards are numbered from 1 to 20 respectively. IF a
card is chosen at random find the probability of obtaining
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6…….20}
i) an odd number
A = odd numbers
A = {1,3,5,7,9,11,13,15,17,19} P(A) =
ii) an even number greater than 7
B= {8,10, 12, 14,16,18,20} =
Ex3: when a single dice is drawn find the probability of getting a 9.

• number more than 4

• S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} , n(S) = 6
• A = getting the number 9
• A = { } , n (A) = 0
• P(A) =
 Ex4:
• when a single dice is drawn what is the probability of getting a number
less than 7.
• S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
• A = getting number less than 7
• A = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
• P(A) =
 Additional question
• in a box there are cards numbered from 1 to 30. List the elements and find the probability of :-
• S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11…30}
• a) a perfect square = B = {1,4,9,16,25}
• b) A prime number = C = {2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19,23,29} =
• C) factors of 15 = {1,3,5,15} =
• D) multiples of 6 = A = {6,12,18,24,30} =
• E) a two digit numbers where the sum of the digit is more 3 ={13, 14, 15,16,17,18,19,
22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29} = 15/30 = ½
• F) a two digit numbers where the difference is 3 ={14,25,30}
• G) odd numbers more than 10
• H) numbers divisible by 3
 Factors of 12 =
• 1 x 12
• 2x6
• 3x4

• 1, 2, 3,4, 6, 12
 P(A) =

• Ex9: In a class, 19 students passed Business Statistics test and 6 students

failed the test. k students who passed the test then join the class. The
probability that a student chosen at random from that class passed the test
now becomes 4/5. Find the value of k.
• Number of students who passed = 19
• Number of students who failed = 6
• Probability of the students who passed = 4/5
• P(A) =
 Cross multiply

• K=5
• Try1: A box contains 7 red bulbs, 5 green bulbs and x blue bulbs. If a bulb
is drawn at random from the box. The probability of obtaining a green
bulb is 1/3. Find the value of x
•  Try2: A basket has red apples and green apples. If an apple is picked at
random from the basket, the probability that it is a red apple is 4/5. If there
are 76 red apples in the basket, calculate the total number of apples in the
basket.
• Try 3: There are 36 balls in a box. 15 are squash balls and the rest are golf
balls. X tennis balls are then put into the box. The probability of obtaining
a golf ball is ½. Find the value of x.
 Try1: A box contains 7 red bulbs, 5 green bulbs and x blue bulbs. If a bulb is drawn at
random from the box. The probability of obtaining a green bulb is 1/3. Find the value of x

• n(R) = 7
• n(G) = 5
• P(G) = 1/3
• P(G) =
• =
• 12+x = 15
• X=3
 Try2: A basket has red apples and green apples. If an apple is picked at random from the basket, the
probability that it is a red apple is 4/5. If there are 76 red apples in the basket, calculate the total
number of apples in the basket.

• P( R) = 4/5
• n(R ) = 76
• P(R) =

• 4x = 380
• X = 95
Try 3: There are 36 balls in a box. 15 are squash balls and the rest are golf balls. X tennis balls
are then put into the box. The probability of obtaining a golf ball is ½. Find the value of x.

• n(G) = 36 – 15 = 21
• P(G) = ½
• P(G) =

• 36+x = 42
• X = 42 – 36
• X=6
Union and intersection and
 example
• X = {1, 2, 3,4 5, 6,7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19 ,20}
• If A is an even numbers and B is a factor of 16 find P( A U B)
• A = { 2,4,6,8,10,12,14,16,18,20 } = 10/20
• B = { 1,2,4,8,16 } = 5/20
• P(A B } = {2,4,8,16} = 4/20
• P(A U B ) =
  
Tree Diagram

•  
• Ex10: Saleh, Chye sit for exam and the probabilities that they pass are ½
and 2/3. Calculate the probability that
• at least one of the student passed the exam
• both students failed the exam
• Only one student passed the exam
• P(PP) + P(FP) + P(PF) =
• )+(
• 1 – P(FF) - 1 -
• P(FF) = ( = 1/6
• P(PF ) + P(FP) = ( + () = 3/6 = ½
• Ex11: A bag has 12 coloured discs; 7 green and 5 yellow. Two discs are
drawn at random one after the other without replacement. Find the
probability that
• a green discs and a yellow disc are drawn = P(GY)+P(YG) =
• the two discs drawn are either both green or both yellow =
• The first disc must be a yellow =
• A jar contains 6 red sweets and 4 green sweets. A sweet is
drawn at random from the jar. If it is a red sweet, it is put back
into the jar before the second sweet is drawn. If it is green, it is
not put back into the jar and the second sweet is drawn straight
away. Calculate the probability that a red sweet and a green
sweet are drawn.