Professional Documents
Culture Documents
OGOG 7002
MBA OG-I
Prof. Promod Painuly
Total professional experience 35 years, Academic experience
4+ years, Industries 31+ years
Professor – Oil & Gas ,Department of Energy Management, SOB, UPES, Dehradun.
Chief Geophysicist- Oil & Natural Gas Corporation, Dehradun.
General Manager- Exploration, Reliance Industries Limited, Mumbai.
Exploration Manager REPSOL, West Africa, Madrid.
Exploration Advisor – South America, REPSOL, Houston.
Member of SEG, SPG & AAPG
Distinguished Educator SPG, AAPG
Resource for MOPNG & DGH on Exploration Processes
Todays Agenda
2. Department at a glance
1
MBA OG (Started in 2003)
First petroleum focused management program offered in the country.
Covers all the business processes from Exploration to the Retailing of petroleum products
2
MBA Power (Started in 2005)
Unique management program offered in power sector.
Program specifically tailored to develop one’s skill sets by relating the management theories to the prevalent
problems in the power value chain
3
MBA ET (Started in 2008)
Only ET program in India
Distinctive management program covering the broad spectrum of energy trading. Expose students to
basic energy derivative structures that are currently used in trading, marketing and risk management
4
BBA OG (Started in 2004)
A specialized program provides various aspects of the Oil & Gas marketing and develop
skills to manage the challenges
It aims at guiding students toward petroleum marketing at an early stage
Faculty Details: Domain experts with industry experience
Full Time Faculty: 9 (P:2, Asso.P:1, IF:1, Dr Anil Kumar (HOD)
AP:4)
Visiting Faculty: 2 (Dr B S Negi: Ex GAIL
Experience: 24 Yrs (Industry), 13 Yrs (Academics)
Companies: Tata Steel, NPTI 4 5
Director; S C Gupta Ex ED IOCL)
Average Industrial experience: 10+ years Areas of Expertise: Energy, Infrastructure & PhD Pursuing PhD
SFR: 20:1 Sustainability
Mr. Promod Painuly Dr. Mohd. Yaqoot Mr. Anirudh Singh Mr. Atul Rawat
Experience: 35 Yrs (Industry);4 Yrs Experience: 5 Yrs (Industry); 13 Yrs Experience: 16 Yrs (Industry); 3 Yrs Experience: 9 Yrs (Industry), 5 Yrs
(Academics) (Academics) (Academics) (Academics)
Companies: ONGC, RIL,ESSAR, Companies: RIL Companies: Shell, Castrol, Companies: Genpact Analytics,
REPSOL Houston Areas of Expertise: Power, Petronas Deloitte, and EY
Renewable & Infrastructure
Areas of Expertise: E&P, Surface Areas of Expertise: Lubricant Areas of Expertise: Research and
Facilities, Portfolio Management Strategy Formulation
9
Data shown is for 2016, the latest year with complete data in all categories)
Course Objectives
Fundamental of Petroleum Exploration (FOPE) is the domain course in MBA (O & G)
program. The course has been designed to impart learning about the basic understanding
of petroleum, its constituents, formation, migration & accumulation process, various
exploration methods and their significance. Risk and commercial assessment.
The course objectives are:
.To develop participant’s understanding of petroleum origin and trapping mechanism.
· Development of understanding about hydrocarbon resources and reserves.
· Providing insight regarding geo- scientific methods of investigation.
· Providing understanding of unconventional petroleum resource.
· Providing understanding of mineral acreage licensing policy, NEPL and HELP, DSF
· Techno economic appraisal of prospects.
As per IACBE
MYTH...
… the Stone Age ended, not because we ran out of stones. It’s
ideas, it’s innovation, it’s technology that will end the Age of Oil
before we run out of oil
(By Sheikh Zaki Yaman / Oil Minister Saudi Arabia)
For 200 years we have been systematically de-carbonizing our energy system?
Proved Oil Reserves Vs Remaining Oil
(Conventional)
Global proved oil reserves are sufficient to meet > 50. yrs. of global production at 2016 levels
Petroleum (L. petroleum, from Greek πετρέλαιον, lit. "rock oil") or crude oil is a
naturally occurring, flammable liquid found in rock formations in the Earth consisting
of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights, plus other organic
compounds.
The term "petroleum" was first used in the “treatise De Natura Fossilium”, published
in 1546 by the German mineralogist Georg Bauer, also known as Georgius Agricola.
Petroleum occurs in the earth in combination of any of the four states: gas, liquid,
semi-solid, and solid. Chemically, petroleum is a mixture of carbon, hydrogen and
oxygen with minor amount of nitrogen, and Sulphur as impurities along with traces of
heavy metals.
The earliest known oil wells were drilled in China in 347 BC or earlier.
In the 9th century, oil fields were exploited in the area around modern Baku, Azerbaijan,
to produce naphtha.
n 1854, Benjamin Silliman, a science professor at Yale University in New Haven, was the
first to fractionate petroleum by distillation.
The first commercial oil well drilled in Romania in 1857 at Bend, North of Bucharest.
347 A.D.
Oil wells are drilled in China up to 800 feet deep using bits attached to bamboo poles
1264 Mining of seep oil in medieval Persia witnessed by Marco Polo on his travels through
Baku.
1594 Oil wells are hand dug at Baku, Persia up to 35 meters (115 feet) deep
1859 First oil well in United States is drilled 69 feet deep at Titusville, Pennsylvania by
Colonel Edwin Drake
Oil Transportation
Oil and Gas Business
• Upstream Business (Exploration and Production)
• Midstream Business (Storage and
Transportation)
• Downstream Business (Refining, Marketing and
Distribution)
Subir Raha Oil Museum – ONGC Dehradun
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=subir+raha+oil+mu
seum+dehradun&&view=detail&mid=DAC89B7AECF0B89B5
CE9DAC89B7AECF0B89B5CE9&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvi
deos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dsubir%2Braha%2Boil%2Bmuseum
%2Bdehradun%26FORM%3DHDRSC4
Subir Raha Oil Museum – ONGC Dehradun
Subir Raha Oil Museum – ONGC Dehradun
Wells- To – Watch (2018)
Wells- To – Watch (2020)
Global Conventional Discoveries (Million boe)
• ExxonMobil was declared explorer of the year for a second year in a row as results in
Guyana, along with significant investments in Cyprus. The supermajor was exceptional,
both in terms of discovered volumes and value creation from exploration. "Exxon's finds
account for 9 percent of the global oil and gas discovery in 2019.
• .The global high impact well count in 2019 was 91 wells, up 36% on 2018. Drilling spend
was flat at $3.5 billion.. The commercial success rate was at a 10-year high of 32%.
• 77% of total discovered was gas, with seven of top ten discoveries in Russia, Iran,
Mauritania, Senegal, Indonesia and Cyprus. The two biggest oil discoveries were in the
Steabrook license in Guyana, which at 6 billion barrels and counting, is one of the most
prolific oil licenses ever issued.
Brazil is another country to watch in 2020 with one high impact well under drilling and seven wells planned
for 2020 testing 6 billion barrels of unrisked volume in pre-salt plays Santos and Campos basins.
The much anticipated Peroba well drilled in 2019 by BP, for which a $598 million signature bonus was paid
(2017 bid round), is understood to have found high CO2 content gas and is considered non-commercial.
Exploration - Top wildcat wells to watch in 2019
Improved market conditions and lower well costs led E&P players to ramp up their 2019 exploration
activities in all parts of the world, driven in particular by rising investments in South America and Africa.
Exploration - Top wildcat wells to watch in 2019
Improved market conditions and lower well costs led E&P players to ramp up their 2019 exploration
activities in all parts of the world, driven in particular by rising investments in South America and Africa
Latin America, Southern and Western Africa are the regions to keep an eye on when it
comes to offshore exploration (Wood Mackenzie)
South America –Stabroek
Block
In Guyana leading in
prolific discoveries (More
than 6 bn boe)
Course Outline
Module 1: Introduction to Petroleum Exploration
· Global Scenario of hydrocarbon supply and demand
· Indian Scenario
· Sedimentary basins of India
· Origin of Petroleum
· Hydrocarbons type and classification
· Petroleum system elements
· Source Rock, Reservoir Rock and Cap Rock quality and its impact on hydrocarbon
accumulations
·Hydrocarbon migration processes.
COURSE OUTLINE
· Geophysical Methods
o Magnetic
o Gravity
o Seismic 2D, 3D & 4D
o Electromagnetics and CSEM
Module 4: Hydrocarbon Resources and Reserves
Plates interact
at three types
of plate boundaries:
divergent, convergent and
transform. Most of the
Earth's geologic activity
takes place
at plate boundaries. At a
divergent boundary,
volcanic activity produces
a mid ocean ridge and
small earthquakes
Plate Tectonics & Global Distribution of Geological Phenomena
Pangea 250 my
Plate Tectonics & Global Distribution of Geological Phenomena
Plate Tectonics & Global Distribution of Geological Phenomena
Petroleum Composition
Petroleum is organic; it contains complex carbon-hydrogen molecular structures called chains
that are linked together to form long chains of more complex molecules. CH4 – Methane is
one such hydrocarbon.
Crude oil refers to liquid petroleum as opposed to refined oil. These are
liquid hydrocarbons that contain varying amounts of dissolved gases,
bitumen, and other impurities.
Carbon 83 to 87%
Hydrogen 10 to 14%
Nitrogen 0.1 to 2%
Sulfur 0.5 to 6%
Another type of crude oil belonging to this series is naphthalene. It contains carbon ring
compounds having the general formula CnH2n. These are called cycloparaffins with the most
common being cyclopropane (C3H6) and cyclobutene (C4H8). However, the molecular structures
for this group of hydrocarbons can contain long, branched chains with complex rings, such as C 30
H50OH
Of the two types of crude oil, paraffin or methane series oil is the most prized, but it comprises
less than 2% of the total world supplies. Crudes dominated by naphthenic components are
called asphalt-based oils. About 15% of total world supply is this type (also called black oil).
Structure of Paraffins
Vast majority of crude oils are a mixed base of paraffin and
naphthalene.
Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar,
the Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia (the de facto leader), United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela
API Gravity
•West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a light, sweet crude oil that serves as one of the main
global oil benchmarks.
•It is sourced primarily from inland Texas and is one of the highest quality oils in the
world, which is easy to refine.
•WTI is the underlying commodity for the NYMEX's oil futures contract.
•WTI is often compared to Brent crude, which is an oil benchmark for two-thirds of the
world's oil contracts based on oil extracted in the North Sea.
API Gravity
The top three oil producing countries are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the
United States
.
About 80% of the world's readily accessible reserves are located in the
Middle East, with 62.5% coming from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Qatar
and Kuwait.
Sedimentary basins are regions of the Earth where long-term subsidence creates accommodation space
for accumulation of sediments. As the sediments are buried, they are subject to increasing pressure and
begin the processes of compaction and lithification that transform them into sedimentary rock
si on
si on
Stages of Basin
Formation
si on Stages of Basin
Formation
Introduction - Exploration Process Triangle
si on
Sedimentary Basins of India
Sedimentary Basins of India
Sedimentary Basins of India
Sedimentary Basins of India
Crude Production from Assam
Sedimentary Basins of India - Assam Arakan Basin
Sedimentary Basins of
India
Assam Arakan Basin
Sedimentary Basins of India - Cambay Basin
Sedimentary Basins of India Cambay Basin
Geographic Location of the basin The Cambay rift Basin,
a rich Petroleum Province of India, is a narrow, elongated
rift graben, extending from Surat in the south to Sanchor
in the north. In the north, the basin narrows, but
tectonically continues beyond Sanchor to pass into the
Barmer Basin of Rajastha
Sedimentary Basins of India Cambay Basin
Sedimentary Basins of India Cambay Basin
Sedimentary Basins of India Cambay Basin
Sedimentary Basins of India
Western Offshore Basin
Mombai Offshore Basins
Oils mainly occur in the limestone
horizons of lower Miocene age (L-III) in
major hydrocarbon fields; viz., Mumbai
high, Panna, S. Bassein, Heera and Ratna,
Mahuva and Daman pay (Oligocene) in
Tapti area, Bassein pay (middle Eocene to
upper Eocene) in Panna-Bassein-Heera
and Ratna areas and Ratna pay (mid
Eocene to lower Eocene) in Ratnagiri area.
With the recent oil occurrences in the
sands of Panna Formation in Vasai East,
the Panna pay is emerging as a
commercial pay zone. Few oils also occur
in clastic / fractured basement reservoirs
and middle Miocene L-II and S1 pays. The
majority of these oils show moderate API
gravity (25-40°), high pour point (27-
33°C), significant wax (7-20%), and low
sulphur (0.1- 0.3%) contents. These oils
are predominantly aliphatic, having high
saturate/aromatic ratio (>1.5) and
saturate content (>40%). Only a few oils
and mostly condensates were found in
the Tapti Daman block.
Sedimentary Basins of India-Krishna Godavari Basin
Sedimentary Basins of India
Krishna Godavari Basin
Krishna Godavari Basin
Krishna Godavari Basin
Krishna Godavari Basin
Krishna Godavari Basin
OALP
NELP era
203 + 36
Blocks
Pre NELP era
28 Blocks, 29
Fields
Nomination era
Pre Independence
era
PSC Regime
1886 - 1946 1947 - 1990 1990 - 1996 1997 – till date Future
New Exploration Licensing Policy
Policy approved in Feb. 1997
Award of licenses through international competitive
bidding
Fast track approval mechanism through single window
Empowered Committee of Secretaries (ECS)
Up to 100% foreign participation
No acreages on nomination basis
NOCs to compete in the bidding rounds
Upstream Industry Development
E&P data
E&P operations in India have generated voluminous data in terms of geo-scientific surveys, exploratory and
development drilling and well data along with other type of data as indicated in the detailed scope of data to
be held within NDR. In broad terms, the quantum of E&P data populated so far in NDR is as under:
Other E&P Data: Aero Gravity Magnetic Surveys Magnetic Telluric / CSEM Production Data Reservoir
Data CBM related Data Gas Hydrate Data Geochemical Data
The objective of this policy is to assimilate, preserve and regulate the E&P data generated by various
companies over the last several decades and held within the National Data Repository (NDR) in order to enable
systematic disclosure, sharing and dissemination and to standardize the norms for accessibility within the
overall provisions of the Oilfields (Regulations and Development Act 1948) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas
Rules 1959,
Data submission to NDR
The contractor/operator/ licensee/lessee/permit holder/E&P entity/Non-E&P Entity shall as soon as available but
not later than three months after acquisition/ processing/interpretation or any value addition at each stage, as
the case may be, shall compulsorily provide to the Government designated agency i.e. DGH, free of cost, all data
obtained as a result of petroleum operations under the license, lease, permit, contract or any other agreement.
Augmentation of NDR shall be a continuous process wherein all the data is compulsorily acquired on a perpetual
basis from all E&P and non E&P entities.
• Media of Data submission The data must be submitted in latest media such as 3592 cartridges or LTO-4, LTO-
5, and LTO-6 or hard disk or any other higher media as may be decided by NDR/DGH.
• Interpretation Data submission All interpretation work in its entirety shall be delivered to NDR/DGH in two
separate packages:
• The first package shall contain a backup of the interpretation project in workstation format (e.g. Open works,
Petrel, SMT etc.) the name of the interpretation software and version number and any other relevant
information that will enable NDR to restore the project shall also be included.
• The second package shall contain ASCII exported files of Horizons, Faults, Volume grids, Map grids, export of
logs in LAS format and seismic lines/cube in SEGY format, project coordinate reference system and any other
relevant information that will enable NDR to import the product of interpretation to any interpretation
software shall also be included.
• The submission shall be accompanied by an interpretation report that lists all interpretation assumptions,
conventions, standard horizons names and events used for picking
Visualization & Sharing of data with E&P and Non-E&P users /investors
• E & P users / investors will be allowed to see data in physical data rooms located at NDR, DGH after
scheduling an appointment with NDR. The investor should request NDR for loading & visualization of
data through Email. Any user on each occasion can view Data up to 30 sectors (One sector is equal to an
area bound by one grid of 10’x10’) for offshore, 20 sectors for shallow offshore area and 10 sectors for
onshore area. For visualizing data for more than 30/ 20 sectors or for other area/sector, investor should
book another appointment on the web portal of NDR. However, DGH may notify for smaller grid, if data
is available.
• Maximum 4 persons per company per work station will be allowed to visit data rooms. The end users
will be allowed to save interpretation project up to their booking date. They will be allowed to take
maximum 05 snapshots per project
• The Charges for data room per day per work station shall be as under: a. For first three days – USD 250
per day b. Fourth Day – USD 500 c. Fifth Day onwards – USD 1250 per day
Acquisition of Mineral Interests in Property
•After an oil company has identified an area with potential, the company will seek to acquire the right to explore,
develop, and produce any minerals that might exist beneath the property, unless it already holds those rights.
•This right, along with the right to simply share in proceeds from the sale of any minerals produced, is referred to
as a mineral interest or an economic interest. The specific type of mineral interest that is owned determines how
Mineral Rights
For ownership purposes, the surface of a piece of property can be separated from minerals existing underneath
the surface. When a piece of land is purchased, one may acquire ownership of the surface rights only, the mineral
rights only, or both rights. An ownership of both the surface and mineral rights is called a fee interest.
Acquisition of Mineral Interests in Property
When the owner of the mineral rights enters into a lease agreement or contract, two
types of mineral interests are created-a working interest (WI) and a Royalty interest (RI).
Royalty Interest (RI):
This type of mineral interest is created by leasing. The RI is retained by the owner of the
mineral rights when that owner enters into a lease agreement with another party.
The RI receives a specified portion of the minerals produced, free and clear of any costs
of exploring, developing, or operating the property. The royalty interest owner is
responsible for any severance or production taxes assessed on production from the
property.
Working Interest or Operating Interest (WI):
This interest is created via leasing and is responsible for the exploration, development,
and operation of a property.
While the working interest owner pays all (100%) of the cost of exploring, drilling,
developing, and producing from the property, the WI's share of revenue is the amount
that remains after deducting the share of the RI and other nonworking interests
Fiscal Regimes around the world and their economics
• Although host governments and the investors may share one common
objective—the desire for the project to generate high levels of revenue—their
other goals are not entirely aligned.
• Host governments aim to maximize the rent for their country over time, while
achieving other development and socio economic objectives.
• To reconcile these often conflicting objectives, more and more countries rely on
transparent institutional arrangements and flexible, neutral fiscal regimes.
• The key elements of the legal and fiscal frameworks utilized in the petroleum sector
and aims to outline desirable features that should be considered in the design of
fiscal policy with the objective of optimizing the host government’s benefits, taking
into account the effect that this would have on the private sector’s investment
Fiscal Regimes around the world and their economics
• Governments compete for capital and technology to develop their hydrocarbon sector.
• In order to devise and apply the appropriate policies/strategies, each must assess its
position in the global marketplace and evaluate its particular situation, boundary
conditions, concerns and objectives.
• Companies look for investment opportunities that suit their corporate strategies and
risk-reward profiles. The initial decision to invest and the resulting allocation of revenue
and benefits are greatly influenced by the content of existing legal arrangements and
fiscal policies
Fiscal Regimes around the world and their economics
The fiscal regime can be used to convert a government’s policy into economic signals
to the market, and influence investment decisions, provided that the framework is
clear, is not changed retro-actively, and does not discriminate among the actors.
Several countries have used favorable taxation of oil and gas to support the
development of the sector in addition to relevant sector reforms.
The challenge of an efficient fiscal system is to induce maximum effort from the oil
companies while ensuring that the host government is adequately compensated.
Fiscal Regimes around the world and their economics
In other words, how flexible, neutral and stable is the fiscal regime?
• Many fiscal systems around the world make use of sliding scales for the determination of at least
one of the following parameters: royalty, bonuses, profit oil /gas split, cost recovery, and taxes.
Sliding scales introduce flexibility into the system by allowing it to respond to changes in project
variables.
• Unfortunately, the vast majority of these sliding scales are linked to daily or cumulative production
targets. Hence they are insensitive to changes in economic variables. No wonder that the changing
level of oil prices in recent years has pushed many host governments to seek improvement in their
contractual terms.
• oil prices also trigger demand for services and equipment, which in turn increase their cost. As
many fiscal systems were designed when oil prices were in the US$15-18 barrel range and finding
and development costs were US$5-9 barrel, these systems no longer efficiently capture the
projects’ economic rent.
• High risks and long project cycles are key elements of the oil and gas industry. As risks can differ
substantially by project and over time, an efficient fiscal system needs to be flexible enough to allocate
risks equitably, thus minimizing the need for and cost of negotiations or renegotiations
• No ideal or model regime is available for policy makers to adopt. Each country’s circumstances, needs,
and objectives define the key features of an appropriate legal and fiscal framework.
• Although many of the variables that affect the profitability of a petroleum project are beyond the
control of both the host government and the investing companies, the host government can take
actions to minimize uncertainty. Options include providing potential investors with access to existing
geological and geophysical data; strengthening macroeconomic and fiscal stability; improving
transparency and the rule of law; promoting contract stability; and signing/ratifying relevant
international conventions.
Ownership of Natural Recourses
Under a concessionary system, the title to hydrocarbons passes to the investor at the borehole. The
state receives royalties and taxes in compensation for the use of the resource by the investor. Title to
and ownership of equipment and installation permanently affixed to the ground and/or destined for
exploration and production of hydrocarbons generally passes to the state at the expiry, or
termination, of the concession (whichever is earlier). The investor is typically responsible for
abandonment.
Under a contractual system, the investor acquires the ownership of its share of production only at
the delivery point. Title to and ownership of equipment and installation permanently affixed to the
ground and/or destined for exploration and production of hydrocarbons generally passes to the state
immediately. Furthermore, unless specific provisions have been included in the contract (or in the
relevant legislation) the government (or the national oil company, “NOC”) is typically legally
responsible for abandonment
Legal Framework
Legal Framework
Ownership of Natural Resources
Legal Framework
From the government’s standpoint, this means the design of a tax system:
(i) supports macroeconomic stability by providing predictable and stable tax revenue
flows;
(ii) permits capturing a greater share of the revenue during periods of high profits;
(iii) avoids the introduction of distorting effects through the fiscal instruments;
(iv) maximizes the present value of revenue receipts by providing for appropriations
during the early years of production; and
Acquisition
• Activities to obtain a right to explore a block/area
through concession/contractual system
Exploration
si on
• Activities to search for oil & gas deposit on the
certain location beneath the earth surface
Appraisal
• Activities to define the oil & gas volume and
characteristic more precisely after discovery
Development
• Activities to build the subsurface & surface
facilities to produce oil & gas safely and efficiently
Production
• Activities to extract, process, and export oil & gas
as per contract agreement
Abandonment
• Activities to plug wells permanently, remove surface
facilities, and restore the field as per initial state
The Upstream E&P Project
Cycle
Acquisition of Mineral Interests in Property
Negotiations
Govt. awards blocks through negotiations based on the programs the companies commit to
carry out.
The production sharing contracts (PSCs) are among the most common types of contractual
arrangements for petroleum. Under PSC, the state, as the owner of mineral resources,
engages a contractor to provide technical & financial services for operations.
Contractor is entitled to a share of Oil or Gas produced and of cash flows that accrue from
the sale.
Acquisition of Mineral Interests in Property
The contractor carry the entire exploration risk and if no oil is found, the contractor
receives no compensation. In the event of a discovery, FOC accepts all risks financing
the operations - development & production.
The contractor recovers the entirety of its costs associated with operations through a
part of production referred as ‘Cost oil’ ,up to a % of production – Cost recovery limit.
Once the capital and operating costs have been recovered (high in first years), the
left over is termed ‘Sharing oil’, shared between NOC & FOC under agreed ratios
(Profit oil).
Liberia Block 10 Timeline & Work Commitments
©
Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Total Production
Up to 75% 25%
Si el descubrimiento es
de GAS, el reparto sería Contractor Estate
aplicado a los BOES a Profit Oil Profit Oil
menos que el Contratista
obtenga mejores
condiciones para el gas
Opex
Development
Exploration
Contractor
Cash flow
Indonesia Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Indonesia Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Indonesia Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Indonesia Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Indonesia Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
Indonesia Production Sharing Contract (PSC)
GROSS-SPLIT PSC REGULATION
The Gross-Split PSC model introduced by the Gross-Split PSC Regulation splits gross revenues derived from hydrocarbon
production between the Government and Contractors. Contractors must bear all capital and operating costs subject to such
costs being tax deductible if commercial reserves are discovered and production generates taxable revenue. This is in contrast
to the Cost Recovery System, which permitted the recovery of a share of production equivalent in value to such costs incurred
by Contractors prior to the remaining revenue being shared with the Government based upon an agreed ‘profit’ split for oil
and natural gas. The idea of transforming the Indonesian PSC to a gross-split model was conceived as early as 2011. 10 While
there were a series of meetings between the Indonesian Petroleum Association (the ‘IPA’), the Director General of Oil and
Gas/ESDM, MIGAS, SKK Migas and Pertamina in late 2016, there was ongoing debate with respect to the economics of the
new fiscal regime compared to the traditional PSC regime and the focus was on the abolition of the Cost Recovery System to
respond to political pressures. While the variable and progressive elements of the split do take into account various factors, an
economic comparison between each type of contract can only occur if a particular project is modelled and the results are
compared.
The Gross-Split PSC Regulation was implemented in order to ensure that it could be used for the ONWJ PSC, which was
scheduled to expire on 18 January 2017. It is unfortunate that more time was not taken by the Government and ESDM to
refine the Gross-Split PSC Regulation and solicit comments from the IPA, E&P companies and other stakeholders.
Service Contracts
Under a service contract, the contractor never acquires the title to the resource. On the
contrary, he is paid a fixed or variable fee for his services. In some service contracts the fee is
paid in kind.
From mid 1960 to 1980, the industry was seeking new places to explore outside the OPEC
domain. It became quite popular among many host govt. to turn to risk service contracts in
which foreign contractors takes on all the risk and expense of exploring and developing from
contract area.
In return the contractor is paid a stipulated fee per barrel produced for the account of the
NOC.
Service Contracts
Service contract occur in a number of forms but share certain basic similarities.
The FOC usually recovers his cost from a portion of the production, often ahead of the
service fee. Development facilities normally becomes the property of the mineral
owner.
In 1958 Amoco signed a service contract with Argentina in which they agreed to drill 50
wells at their expense. If production was found (it was), the company agreed to lay a
pipeline to the coast. For this they were paid a fee per barrel.
Service Contracts
Service contracts are the results of the extensive negotiations, they are not all the
same.
The Service contracts with risk supposes that contractor is employed to provide
technical, financial and commercial services associated with E&P. In return if
successful, govt allows the contractor to recover the cost through sale of oil/gas and
pay a fee per bbl.
Service contract without risk, in which the state directly sub contract a contractor ,
whereby it does not assume the exploration risk and is not entitled to production in
case of a discovery.
.
Farm in/Farm out
Farm in/Farm out
Joint Operating Agreements
The Joint Operating Agreement (JOA) in oil and gas industry is an underlying contractual framework of a
Joint Venture (JV). The JOA is a contract where two or more parties agree to undertake a common task to
explore and exploit an area for hydrocarbons. The parties to the agreement can be broadly classified as
operators and non-operators
The operator is the one who is responsible for the day-to-day management and operation of the field. It is
usually a single party with the highest interest in the agreement. But it is not uncommon to have a
designated operator who is a minority to the agreement.
Though the operator is entitled to full control over the operations, it usually does not receive any
remuneration. The main duty of the operator is to carefully plan the activities in order to increase the
profitability of the operations. But it is not liable for any loss of production or revenues as a result of its
decisions except in cases of gross negligence and/or willful misconduct
Joint Operating Agreements
As the name suggests, parties other than the operator are designated as "non-
operator(s)." The most important duty of non-operator is to answer any cash-calls as
the operation requires.
Non- operators form part of the joint operating committee (JOC) which oversees the
activities of operator. The voting rights of operators and non-operators in the JOC are
as per the interest they hold in the JOA.
Joint Operating Agreements
Typical JOA will include the followings:
Oil seeps
Oil & gas seeps are where the petroleum has migrated from its source through either porous beds,
faults or springs and appears at the surface.
Locating seeps at the surface was the primary method of exploration in the late 1800’s and before.
Oil seep demonstrates that there is a generating source rock & hence a active petroleum system.
Oil Seeps
Oil & Gas Seeps located either up dip (A) or along fractures (B)
Oil Seeps
Oil Seeps
Oil Seeps
Patterns
Oil Seeps
http://www.soscalifornia.org/natural-oil-s
eepage-facts
/
Oil Seeps
https://youtu.be/m4S9uazWAB0
Geotechnical Data (SGE)
1. High resolution Bathymetric data
• MBES, Backscatter, SBPD
UCM
Surface Expression, Oil/Gas Anomaly Sample
Sample
Gas anomaly Analysis
Total Gases Alkanes vs % Wetness
25
PC-36; PC-98; PC-99; PC-100 AND PC-
103 COULD BE CONSIDERED AS
POSITIVE GAS ANOMALY.
20
15
Background Piston Core Trinidad 23B BHP
% Wetness
Thermogenic
5
Biogenic/Thermogenic?
0
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000
It involves measuring variations in gravitational fields which occur as a result of the different
densities of rock close to the surface, and gives indications of the nature and depth of layers.
This method makes use of the earth’s gravitational field to determine the presence of gravity
anomalies (abnormally high or low gravity values), which can be related to the presence of
dense igneous or metamorphic rock or light sedimentary rock in the subsurface.
A gravity meter or gravimeter is used - The gravimeter is very sensitive to the density of
rocks in the sub surface. e.g. Over an area of earth’s crust with 5000 ft. of sedimentary rocks
underlain by basement rock that is very dense , the gravity measurements is predictable. A
mass of relatively lighter rocks such as a salt dome can be detected by gravity meter because
of lower than normal gravity values over it. Similarly, a mass of relatively heavy rocks near the
surface such as basement rock can be detected by higher than normal gravity values. The
gravity values are measured in milligals.
Gravity Methods:
Dense igneous or metamorphic basement rocks close to the surface will read much
higher on a gravimeter because the gravitational force they exert is more powerful
than the lighter sedimentary rocks.
Data collected from gravity surveys can be used to construct contour maps showing
large scale structures.
Gravimeter
Gravimeter, also called gravity meter, sensitive device for measuring
variations in the Earth’s gravitational field, useful in prospecting for oil and
minerals. In one form, it consists of a weight suspended from a spring;
variations in gravity cause variations in the extension of the spring. A number
of different mechanical and optical schemes have been developed to measure
this deflection, which in general is very small. Gravimeters have been
developed that can detect variations in the Earth’s gravitational field as small
as one part in 10,000,000.
Free Air Gravity Anomaly
This is the Free Air Gravity Anomaly Map. As it is presented, the colour-bar varies from the minimum
values in dark blue to the maximum, colored in pale pink. The variation rate is (-183.5, 16.3 mGal).
Free Air anomaly images lateral density contrasts within the earth´s lithosphere but is very sensitive to
topography/bathymetry (reflects topographic and sea floor features).
Bouguer Gravity Anomaly
Bouguer Gravity Anomaly is calculated to reduce the topography/bathymetry contribution to the
gravity signal. Thus, anomalies are better correlated to geological sources than in the Free Air
Gravity grid. The variation rate is (-183.5, 21.4 mGal).
A qualitative gravity-based
delineation of depocenters was
achieved by the Non-Seismic
Methods Group. It can be noticed
that most of the gravity depocenters
are highly geometrically consistent
to the regional structures of the
area.
Magnetic Methods
Igneous & metamorphic rocks usually contain some amount of iron bearing
minerals and are frequently found as basement rock that lies beneath
sedimentary rock layers.
Basement rocks seldom contains HCs, but it sometimes into the overlying
sedimentary rock, crating structures (folds, faults) that could serve HC traps.
If a large mass of magnetite bearing rock occurs near the surface, it is detected by
a large magnetic force than normal value.
Block 23b
Gravity and Magnetic Data
Regional Tectonic and Crustal Boundaries
The geophysical method that provides the most detailed picture of subsurface
geology is the seismic survey.
The seismic method explains that different rocks permit seismic wave propagation
with different velocities.
This involves the natural or artificial generation and propagation of seismic waves
down into Earth until they encounter a discontinuity (any interruption in
sedimentation which is also called Reflector) and are reflected / refracted back to
the surface and picked up by the geophone.
The Seismic data collected is processed in large computers to reveal the subsurface
structures.
Like echoes, the reflected waves return to the surface and are recorded by
sensors which convert the vibrations in the ground into electrical voltages.
3D seismic methods are used for detailed prospecting and offshore exploration
Dynamite is the simpler and generally preferred source, but for several reasons it is limited to open areas, such as
field sand farmlands. Dynamite is also the only practical energy source in swampy areas, such as much of Southern
Louisiana. Quite simply, dynamite is buried and then set off. The resulting explosions generate the requisite
underground reverberation, which is then relayed via geophones to a special recording truck.
The other common method, more frequently seen in populous areas or places in which dynamite is impractical, is
vibroseis. Vibroseis uses large, purpose-built trucks as the source of the seismic waves. Five or six trucks are
commonly used to create enough energy for the procedure. Simultaneously, these trucks then begin to generate
energy of increasing frequency over the period of several seconds. Like with the dynamite method, the resulting
reverberations are measured by geophones, with the data being sent to a recording truck .
233
Seismic Survey (Land)
235
Seismic Survey (Marine)
Seismic Method
Marine Guns
Seismic Survey
Seismic Method
Reliance Industries - S. Aramco, $15 Bn deal falls through as priorities shift .
India's Reliance Industries Ltd said on Friday it had decided to revaluate it previously
proposed deal with Saudi Aramco on the latter’s proposed $15 billion investment in
Reliance's oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.
In 2019, Reliance announced plans to separate the business into a new entity to enable Saudi
Aramco to take a 20% stake - besides refineries and petrochemical plants, the O2C business
also comprises a stake in the fuel retailing business. It, however, does not include the
upstream oil and gas producing assets such as the KG-D6 block in the Bay of Bengal. But the
process was delayed due to global uncertainty regarding the coronavirus pandemic, and
resulting questions on demand and oil prices. The application to the National Company Law
Tribunal is being withdrawn, Reliance said.
241
𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞’𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬:
In line with RIL's commitment to becoming net carbon zero by 2035, Mr. Ambani announced the
establishment of the 𝘙𝘦 𝘭 𝘪 𝘢 𝘯 𝘤 𝘦 𝘕𝘦 𝘸 𝘌 𝘯 𝘦 𝘳 𝘨 𝘺 𝘊𝘰 𝘶 𝘯 𝘤 𝘪 𝘭 and pledged to invest Rs 60,000
crores in four gigafactories for green initiatives. Additionally, Rs 15,000 crore will be invested in value
chain, partnerships and future technologies, including upstream and downstream industries taking the total
investment to Rs 75,000 crores (US$ 10 Bn) in the next three years.
New Energy ecosystem: these giga factories are expected manufacture and fully integrate critical
components and equipment, including:
1. An integrated solar photovoltaic module factory for production of solar energy
2 An advanced energy storage battery factory for the storage of intermittent energy
3. An electrolyser factory for production of green hydrogen
4. A fuel cell factory for converting hydrogen into motive and stationary power
242
𝐀𝐭 𝐨𝐝𝐝𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐀𝐫𝐚𝐦𝐜𝐨:
RIL’s green energy plans were perhaps not in congruence with Aramco which would want to reinforce its position as
the worlds leader in oil production and the bedrock of the crude producing world.
Aramco may have also had concerns that a bulk of its investment into RIL could be used to finance this foray into
renewables and to raise debt for its green energy related projects, at the cost of its traditional oil and chemicals'
business.
17,717 km2
Ramform Titan
Average 60-70 Sq.km data/per day
245
Seismic Reflection
Stress / Strain
Seismic Waves
Seismic Waves
Convolution Model
Brief of seismic data acquisition
• seismic methods,
• source and receivers,
• spreads,
• arrays,
• noise characters,
• multiples
250
Seismic sources
Desirable characteristics include:
• Signal – High amplitude, broad frequency bandwidth.
• Safety – Hazards in use, storage and maintenance be managed.
• Cost – Total cost of equipment (acquisition, operation and maintenance) and supplies
• Operation – Relatively simple, efficient and fast operation preferred.
• Environment –Minimal physical and biological damage to the surroundings.
251
Impulsive seismic sources
• Explosives loaded at the bottom of a drilled hole (or holes).
If the time and cost of drilling deep holes is high, multiple shot holes are to be drilled.
Impulsive seismic sources-contd…
Advantages:
• High energy and a broadband signal
• Direct measure of time through low - velocity zone be obtained.
Disadvantages:
Much energy may be lost and permanent deformation around the charge.
High amplitude horizontal noise is produced above or just below the surface.
The base plates, or ”pads” lowered to the ground and trucks jacked-up to
place the weight of trucks on the base plates, providing a reactive mass.
Converts hydraulic energy into mech. energy input to the base plate.
Seismic Receivers
1. Geophone on land
2. Hydrophone offshore
Seismic receivers
Type Name
(a) Velocity meter – output is Proportional to Geophone or Seismometer
ground velocity. (mv/in/s)
Essential elements:
Coil of wire
Magnet
Spaced very closely together and the array effect is to increase signal, not attenuate
noise
Streamer configuration
• A marine in-water system usually consists of several streamers.
• The towing bridle and the lead-in section provide the physical connection
between the vessel and the main streamer.
• Streamers use sectionalized cables but there is more than one kind.
• Live sections have hydrophone groups built into them.
• Stretch sections at the front and back of the streamer to absorb shocks caused
by tail buoy jerks. Dead sections are used as spacers.
• Depth controllers that monitor streamer depth and “birds” that are used to
maintain and adjust streamer depth are attached to the streamer.
Streamer
configuration
Acquisition Methodology
2-D Acquisition:
• The spread is laid out along the lines and sources shot into them.
• After one is shot into, the spread and source are moved along the line.
End-on spread:
All receiver groups are on one side of the source.
Pulling the spread: the source is at the end of the receiver groups that is in the direction of
progression along the line.
Pushing the spread: the source is opposite to the direction in which the shooting the line
progresses.
261
Symmetric split spread: Equal number of receivers on each side of the
spread
asymmetric split spread: more receivers on one side of the source than
the other.
Symmetric split spread
262
3-D Acquisition
Eight receiver lines are laid out but only six are active at a time.
The total length of the six lines is called a swath.
The portion of the swath enclosed by a rectangle is called a patch.
Receivers in the patch are the receiver groups used for the first shot.
The source position for this patch is circled.
The subsurface reflection points are distributed over an area instead of along a line.
The patch and source are moved up the swath in the direction shown.
When the first swath is completed, one or more receiver lines are moved laterally (rolled) such
that there is overlap in surface and/or subsurface coverage.
Marine 3-D Acquisition
• The approach is to divide the survey area into bins that are usually rectangular.
• Traces whose midpoints fall in the same bin are considered common midpoint traces.
• A method of online binning (determining in which bins midpoints fall) is used to aid vessel steering
• This is because there is insufficient time for an airgun array to be fully charged between
Physical Spread is unmoved from shot Physical spread length is moving with
point to shot each advancing shot.
Shooting is normally carried out in one Shooting is carried out in both the
direction in particular prospects. direction normally.
Shot point is provided by the navigator Navigation & Acquisition is carried out
(surveyor) before actual seismic data simultaneously because of dynamic
acquisition. nature of operation.
Static correction is done from shot point In case of marine seismic survey it is
to shot point. bulk static.
265
Time Lapse 3D Seismic (4D)
The basic premise of 4D is a simple one. The method involves the acquisition,
processing and interpretation of repeated seismic surveys over a producing field
with the aim of understanding the changes in the reservoir over time, particularly
its behavior during production. This understanding has very real budgetary
consequences as increasing the recovery factor of a reservoir, even by a few
percent, has significant revenue implications
The ability to monitor the behavior of a reservoir during its production lifetime
now allows engineers to observe changes in the subsurface beyond the limited
Jaguar
Targets
PPress PPress
Jaguar
Targets
Time Lapse 3D Seismic (4D)
PPress PPress
Jaguar
Targets
Time Lapse 3D Seismic (4D)
Jaguar
Targets
Time Lapse 3D Seismic (4D)
Jaguar
Targets
Time Lapse 3D Seismic (4D)
Jaguar
Targets
SEG Recording Formats
It is an open standard, and is controlled by the SEG Technical Standards Committee, a non-profit
organization. The format was originally developed in 1973 to store single-line seismic reflection
digital data on magnetic tapes. The specification was published in 1975. The format and its name
evolved from the SEG "Ex" or Exchange Tape Format.
The SEG Technical Standards Committee serves as a forum for discussion of geophysical
developments in which standards for acquisition and processing of geophysical data need to be
identified or improved.
When data problems of a sufficient magnitude to warrant action by SEG are identified, an
appropriate subcommittee is appointed to develop a set of standards and make a
recommendation to the SEG Board of Directors concerning their adoption. The committee works
in partnership with a wide range of industry organizations.
274
Time Slices
Deep water Fans : West Africa Margin
©
Jaguar–1 Well in Guyana offshore Georgetown. The target is an interpreted thick Middle
Cretaceous deepwater “basin floor” fan sandstone reservoir with a viable hydrocarbon
stratigraphic trapping geometry.
PPress PPress
Jaguar
Targets
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
Why Classify Reserves?
Government
Manage country’s petroleum resources
Overseas financial operations (SEC)
Industry
Manage exploration and production processes
Oil
Condensate
Natural gas
Petroleum resources:
The total quantity of discovered and undiscovered petroleum at a
specific date and a given area.
Discovered resources
A discovery in a petroleum deposit in which the existence of mobile petroleum
has been made probable through testing, sampling or logging.
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
Petroleum resources originally in place
There is frequent confusion in the understanding of Identified Unidentified
International system
WPC / SPE / AAPG
United nations framework classification for world petroleum resources
(UNFCP)
Regional cooperation
CCOP (Asian countries)
National systems (Examples)
Norwegian
Russian
Canadian
Security Exchange Commission (SEC) rules
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
If deterministic methods are used, the term reasonable certainty is intended to express
high degree of confidence that quantities will be recovered.
If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least 90% probability that quantities
recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
Probable Reserves
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves, which by analysis of geological and
engineering data suggests more likely than not to be recoverable. If probabilistic
methods are used, there should be at least 50% probability that quantities recovered
will equal or exceed the estimated sum of the proved plus probable reserves..
Possible Reserves
Probable reserves are those unproved reserves, which by analysis of geological and
engineering data suggests are less likely to be recoverable than possible reserves. If
probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least 10% probability that
quantities recovered will equal or exceed sum of the proved plus probable plus
possible reserves.
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
Asian Classification (CCOP)
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
The recovery of oil & gas from subsurface reservoir is controlled, to a significant
degree by the reservoir heterogeneities and type of reservoir drive mechanism.
where probabilistic methods are used, the probabilities associated with the low, best,
and high case scenarios should be consistent with those values appropriate for the
equivalent category of reserves. Thus, there should be at least a 90% probability that the
estimated potentially recoverable quantity (from a technical standpoint) will equal or
exceed the low estimate, on the assumption that development did proceed. Equivalent
probability values of 50% and 10% should be used for the best and high estimates
respectively. These resource uncertainty categories of Low Estimate, Best Estimate, and
High Estimate may be related to the reserve categories.
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
Probabilistic Classification of Reserves
Note:
Resources
distribution is not
straight line
Go to “Resources”
tab
Once the input parameters of the reservoir model are adjusted, a match
between the computed value with the performance history is done.
Useful for infill drilling, horizontal drilling, optimal production rates etc.
Pressure-
Production data
Geological
Data
Initial Fluid Dynamic
Petrophysica Static Model In-place
l Data Model
Match
Fluid data
History
Match
Economic
Final Analysis Predictions
Report
CMG and Eclipse Software History Matching Technique
NUMERICAL MODELING
Well Model Reservoir Model
Porosity Distribution Rock Types
Permeability Distribution
Flow Model
𝑘 𝜕
𝑞=− 𝛻 𝑃 −𝛻. 𝑀= ( ф 𝜌 ) +𝑄
𝜇 𝜕𝑡
Darcy Law Mass flux = Accumulation + Injection/Production
313
Classification of Reserves and Estimation methods
Well production declines with time. The rate of decline depends upon production rate,
productivity index, total reserves and reservoir drive mechanism.
Decline curve are plots of production rate vs time, usually on a semi- log graph paper.
Drilling engineers examine historical data to estimate normal drilling cost and also quantify the risk
of stuck pipes, blowouts, lost circulation, and other potential hazards.
Reservoir and production engineers simulate field sizes, productivity indices, decline rates, prices,
development and operating costs. Together with exploration, drilling teams estimate schedules and
capital investment (drilling, platforms, pipeline etc.)
Public utility companies that transport natural gas are concerned with demand & supply matters
and the probability of experiencing peak load,
Dr. Ankur prices
Mittal, UPES and costs.
Risk and Uncertainty in E & P Projects
‘Success’ as we understand:
There is no equation to calculate risk and POS precisely and accurately, because there is no
‘Correct’ POS’ value – petroleum accumulations either exists or do not. Still PoS is one of the
most critical determinants of outcome of exploration (Rose,1987).
Geological POS values are commonly used to calculate risked prospective volumes and rank
prospects.
When the geological POS and probabilistic range of volumes (Success case) are combined,
we can calculate POS for finding any volume, including the MEFS (Pe).
Risk and Uncertainty in E & P Projects
si on
Profitability
payout time,
profit to investment ratio, NPV,
Risk Analysis
Unit theory
Utility theory etc.
Techno – Commercial Aspects In
Hydrocarbon Value Chain )
Payout
Rate Of Return
We may use many tools that have limitations. As long as we understand those
limitations, we can make wise use of the tool.
Economic Factors Influencing Evaluations
Cash
Cash Flow
Flow
is the net result of all financial transactions occurring annually :
including all revenues, costs, capital expenditures, royalties and taxes paid.
Or Simply
Cash flow is crucial to companies . Having ample cash on hand will ensure
that creditors, employees, and other can be paid on time.
Investment (2)
Weakness
Does not reflect time-rate patterns of income from the project.
Two projects could have the same payout and P/I , yet different
cash flow patterns.
Profit - To - Investment Ratio (P/I)
Project Economics - Cash Flow
Project Economics - Cash Flow
Undiscounted
Project Economics – Time Value of Money
Discount Factor
The extent to which discounting diminishes the contributions of future receipts
to the value
of the project is illustrated in the fig below, showing the time profile
+
Project Economics – Time Value of Money
Opportunity Cost & Discount Factor
Once we have a discounted cash flow for a given investment, we can
Higher the interest rate, the smaller the NPV for a given cash flow.
NPV offers clear comparisons among competing alternatives. Its
most serious weakness is that it does not take into account the size
of the investment required to obtain the NPV.
Project Economics – Time Value of Money
Net Present Value (NPV)
NPV isthe sum of all cash flows discounted from project year end to start of
the project.
A way of comparing the value of money now with the value of money in
future. A $ today is worth more than $ in the future, because inflation
erodes the buying power of the future money, while money available today
can be invested and grow.
+
NPV = -C + S1/(1+i)1 + S2/(1+i)2 +…. + Sn/(1+i)n
C = Initial investment
S1, S2.. = Net cash flows
n = Total number of year
i = Discount rate
Project Economics - Cash Flow
Project Economics – Time Value of Money (Example)
By 2020, this project is expected to generate $ 80 million value, or called Real Term
(RT) value. So, project value is $ 80 million RT2020.
However, in 2015 term, it worth only $ 20.9 million to the Company , or called
Money of the Day value (MOD) value. In this case, project value is $ 20.9 million
MOD (NPV10)
Project Economics - Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
The Discount rate which makes the Present Value (PV) of net
cash receipts equal to the Present Value of the investment. In
other words IRR is the discount rate which makes: NPV = 0
NPV ($ million)
8 30.677
40.000
10 20.909
12 11.960 20.000
IRR
I R ==115%
R
14 3.748 0.000
15 -0.104 0 5 10 15 20 25
16 -3.799 -20.000
18 -10.746 -40.000
20 -17.149 Interest Rate (%)
Project Economics - Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
The Characteristics
The calculation is a trial –An-Error process or following NPV
profile or Extrapolation process.
• The concept introduces the Time value into the criterion.
• It is independent of the magnitude of cash flows
• Early cash flows weight more than later cash flows.
• It is very sensitive to errors in estimating the initial
investments.
• IRR is nor additive
• It is a good measure to compare with a minimum
• It includes the implicit assumption that all cash flows will
be reinvested at the computed ROR (limitation)
Discount Rate
Investment
Criteria
Discounting Non
Criteria discounting
Criteria
Sensitivity analysis measures the impact on project outcomes of changing one or more key
inputs about, which there is uncertainty.
When computing measures of project worth, for example, how sensitive the economic
payoff is to uncertain values of a critical input – discount rate, opex, capex expected over the
period.
Sensitivity analysis reveals how profitable or unprofitable the project might be , if input
values turn out to be different than assumed?
.
Methods of Assessing Stand-alone Risk
Goal
– Determine uncertainty of a project’s cash flows
Methods
Sensitivity Analysis
• Change one input (holding all others constant) and observe its impact
on NPV.
Scenario Analysis
• Change multiple inputs simultaneously & allow for a range of outcomes
(scenarios)
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Similar to Scenario Analysis, but with thousands of possible scenarios &
distribution for each uncertain input (rather than a single value or “point
estimate”)
Sensitivity Analysis
promod painuly
promod painuly