GCSE :: Probability Trees &

Sequences of Events
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Last modified: 8th July 2021

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Introducing ‘sequences of outcomes’
We will see that ‘tree diagrams’ allow us to represent different possible
sequences of outcomes, and find probabilities to do with these.

The letters from left to

Scenario Possible sequences of right give the outcomes
outcomes. that occurred in
chronological order.
In 3 throws of a coin, getting a heads HHT
(H) followed by two tails (T).
In 3 throws of a coin, getting exactly HTT, THT, TTH
one Heads. ?
In 3 throws of a coin, getting exactly THH, HTH, HHT
two Heads. ?
I pick 2 balls from a big consisting of RG, GR
Red (R) and Green (G) balls. I end up
with one ball of each colour. ?
I pick 2 balls from a big consisting of RR, GG
Red (R) and Green (G) balls. I end up
with two balls of the same colour. ?
Test Your Understanding So Far

Scenario Possible
sequences of
outcomes.
1 When I pick 2 balls from a bag of yellow balls YY, BB
(Y) and blue (B) balls, both are the same
colour. ? We could have picked
the blue ball first and
2 When I pick 2 balls from a bag of yellow balls BY, YG the yellow second, or
and blue balls, one is yellow and one is blue. vice versa.
?
3 When I pick 3 coins from a wallet of £1 and £1 £1 50p, £1
50p coins, I end up with £2.50 50p £1,
50p £1 £1
?
4 In a bag of red (R), blue (B) and green (G) RGB, RBG,
marbles, when I pick 3 balls out, I have one BGR, BRG,
ball of each colour. GRB, GBR
?
Constructing a probability tree
A tree diagram allows us to represent all the different possible sequences of outcomes
in one diagram. Suppose we wanted to represent two throws of an (unfair) coin:
1st throw
0.6
0.4
#1 We start here and move
from left to right. The
‘branches’ represent that we
might throws a Heads (H) or
Tails (T) on our first throw.
#3 This ‘path’ through
the tree represents
throwing Heads
2nd throw
𝐻 followed by Tails
(‘HT’). Any sequence
0.6 of outcomes can be
represented by a
𝐻 single path from the
left of the tree to
0.4 𝑇 somewhere on the
right.
𝐻
0.6 #4 We can put
probabilities on the
𝑇 branches to indicate
the probability of that
0.4 single outcome
#2 We might have thrown a Heads.
𝑇 happening. The
probability of
Suppose we threw the coin a second
throwing a Heads
time. Again, we might throw a Heads
(whether 1st or 2nd
or Tails, so the tree again ‘branches
throw) is 0.6.
out’ into these two possibilities.
 Example
George travels to school by bike with probability 0.7 or by bus. If he travels by bike, the
probability he is late to school is 0.1. If he travels by bus, the probability he is late is
0.15. Complete the following probability tree.

𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
?
𝟎.𝟏 If we had travelled
by bike, we’re told
the probability of
being late is 0.1.
𝐵𝑖𝑘𝑒
0.7
?
𝟎.𝟗 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
?
𝟎.𝟏𝟓 If we
𝟎.𝟑
? 𝐵𝑢𝑠
travelled by
bike, we
could have
Recall that the probability of
all possible outcomes
𝟎.𝟖𝟓
? 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
been late or
not late, so
(provided they are mutually these
exclusive, i.e. can’t happen at probabilities
the same time), add up to 1. add to 1.
Test Your Understanding So Far
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot. Complete the diagram.

𝐻𝑖𝑡
?
0.7

𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
?
?0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝐻𝑖𝑡
?
0.4
0.4? 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
0.6
? 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
Probability of a single sequence of events
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot.
Determine the probability she hits the target on the first shot but misses on the
second.
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.7

𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.4
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
Follow this sequence of outcomes (“Hit
Miss”) across the tree from left to right.
0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
?
Because we want the probability of hit
first and miss second, we multiply these ! If two events and are independent,
two probabilities. then:
(We will cover the word
‘independent’ later)
Test Your Understanding
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot.
Determine the probability she misses on both shots.
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.7

𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.4
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
0.4 × 0.6=0.24
?
Sampling with Replacement
Rathulan has a bag of 5 red marbles and 2 yellow marbles. He takes one marble, notes
the colours, puts it back in the bag, and then take a second marble.
(a) Complete the following probability tree.
(b) Hence determine the probability that both marbles chosen are red.
2nd pick
1st pick The implication of
5
? 𝑅 ‘puts it back’ is
7 that the bag will
be the same for
the second pick,
5
? 𝑅 meaning the
probabilities don’t
7 2?
7
𝑌 change. We call
this sampling with
replacement.
5 𝑅
7?
2
?7 𝑌
2
7?
𝑌
5 5 25
𝑃 ( 𝑅𝑅 )=? b× =
7 7 49
Exercise 1 (On separate printed worksheet)

1 Haroon makes his cakes using 2 Farah has 3 purple cards and 2 yellow
blue icing, with probability 0.7, or cards. She takes a card, puts it back, and
green icing. If he uses blue icing, then takes another card.
the probability he is able to see (a) Complete the probability tree.
the cake is 0.8, and if it is green, (b) Hence determine the probability that
the probability he sells it is 0.3. she takes a purple card followed by a
(a) Complete the probability yellow card.
tree.
(b) Hence determine the
1st pick 2nd pick
probability he makes a green
3
cake and it sells. 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒
3 5
5
𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒 2 𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤

0.8 𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 ? 53 ?
5 𝑃𝑢𝑟𝑝𝑙𝑒
2 𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤
0.7 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 2
0.2 𝑁𝑜𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒 5 𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤
? ?
0.3 𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠
5

0.3 𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛 ?
0.7 𝑁𝑜𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒

𝑃 ( 𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 ) =0.3×0.3
?
Exercise 1
3 There is a 0.6 probability that 4 Helen visits a supermarket. The
Archana walks her dog each probability she buys a turnip is 0.9 and
evening. If she walks the dog, the probability she buys a parsnip is 0.75.
there is a 70% chance she gives it What’s the probability she buys:
a treat on the journey. If she (a) both? ?
doesn’t walk it, there’s a 55%
chance she gives it a treat.
(b) neither? ?
(a) Complete the probability 5 Alastair has 7 Gold coins and 5 Silver
tree. coins. He takes a coin, puts it back, then
(b) Hence determine the takes another coin. What’s the probability
probability her dog is not that he took a silver coin on both picks.
walked but does get a treat.
?
0.7 Treat 6 The probability of flipping a Heads on a
biased coin is 0.7.
0.6 Walk
0.3 No treat (a) Mike flips the coin twice. What’s the
? ?
0.55 Treat
probability he gets a Heads on both
No throws?
0.4 Walk
0.45 No treat ?
(b) Mike flips the coin 5 times. What’s the
probability he got 3 Heads followed
¿ 𝟎 .𝟒 × 𝟎 ?
.𝟓𝟓=𝟎 . 𝟐𝟐 by 2 Tails?
?
Exercise 1
N1 The probability of throwing two
Heads on a biased coin is 0.2025.
What is the probability of flipping
two Tails?

N2 The probability that Alice and Bob both sneeze today is

0.1. The probability that Bob and Charles both sneeze is
0.32. The probability that Charles and Alice both sneeze is
0.2. What’s the probability all three sneeze?
Let the probabilities that each sneeze be and .
Then:

Multiplying these together:

?
Then probability they all sneeze is:

Note that it was not necessary to work out the

individual probabilities of each person sneezing.
Independence of events
We say that two events are independent if one does not effect the other.
In the previous lesson we said that we could multiply the probability of
events and of event to find the probability of and happening.

However this is only true if the events are independent.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(num divisible by 2) ? If the events “divisible by 2” and
“divisible by 4” were independent,
then we’d be able to multiply the
P(num divisible by 4) ? and to get the probability of
“divisible by 2 and by 4”.
P(num divisible by 2 and 4) But , which is not
? Therefore the events are not
independent.
Example

?
In summary, you need to calculate and then state that this is not equal to
() the probability of Betty being late and Colin being late.
Multiple Sequences of Events
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot.
Determine the probability she hits the target exactly once.

Step 1: List out all

𝐻𝑖𝑡
matching sequences
0.7
of outcomes.
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
Step 2: Find the
probability of each 𝐻𝑖𝑡
sequence of outcomes. 0.4
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
HM: 0.6 × 0.3=0.18 0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
? ?
MH: 0.3 × 0.6=0.18 Step 3: Add these
probabilities together.
0.36
? (This is because we want “Hit then Miss
OR Miss then Hit”. ‘OR’ means we add)
Further Example
A monkey makes a choice of banana each day. It is yellow with probability 0.6, green with
probability 0.3 and purple with probability 0.1.
Determine the probability that the bananas he chooses across two days are different.

Slow way: Cleverer faster way:

YG: 0.6 × 0.3=0.18 Step 1: List out

all matching Y notY: 0.6 × 0.4=0.24
YP: 0.6 × 0.1=0.06 sequences of G notG: 0.3 × 0.7=0.21
GY: 0.3 × 0.6=0.18 outcomes.
P notP: 0.1 ×0.9=0.09
GP: 0.3 × 0.1=0.03
PY: 0.1 ×0.6=0.06 Step 2: Find the
probability of 0.54
PG: 0.1 ×0.3=0.03 each sequence
of outcomes. If the two bananas are different, then if
0.54 the first banana is yellow, then the
second banana has to ‘not be yellow’.
Step 3: Add We can find the probability of ‘not
these yellow’ directly without having to
probabilities separately do green and purple, as we
together. did on the left.
Test Your Understanding So Far
George travels to school by bike with probability 0.7 or by bus. If he travels by bike, the
probability he is late to school is 0.1. If he travels by bus, the probability he is late is
0.15. Determine the probability that George is late to school.

Step 1: List out Fro Tip: If it helps to draw a probability tree, then do so.
all matching
sequences of But if you are not required to do so, it is quicker to avoid it.
outcomes.

Step 2: Find the

probability of
each sequence
of outcomes. Bike - Late:
Bus - Late: ?
Step 3: Add
these
probabilities
together.
Sampling Without Replacement
Sometimes you will need to work out the individual probabilities yourself. If an item is
taken/eaten and not replaced, carefully reflect on the new counts of items.

Seiko has 6 red sweets and 4 orange sweets. Seiko takes a sweets, eats it, and then takes
another.
(a) Complete the probability tree.
(b) What is the probability that he ate (i) two red sweets (ii) sweets of different colours.

2nd pick
5
? 𝑅 At this point in the tree, we
ate a red sweet on the first
1st pick 9 pick. That means there’s one
less red sweet, but also one
less sweet overall.
6
? 𝑅
10 4? bi 𝑷 ( 𝑹𝑹 )= 𝟔 × 𝟓 = 𝟏
9
𝑂 ?𝟏𝟎 𝟗 𝟑
6 𝑅 bii
4 ?9
?
10 𝑂 Fro Tip: If you have the
same events/letters but a
?
3 𝑂 different order, the

?9 probability of that
sequence will be the same.
Test Your Understanding

You could use the

Normal way: notation (said “B
Clever way:
prime”) to mean “not B” Work out the opposite, i.e. that
notB B: neither counter is blue, and then
B notB: take away from 1:
BB: ?
Exercise 2 (On separate printed worksheet)

1 Horatio is firing laser beams at a 2 A fussy child prefers red fruit over
target. The probability he hits on yellow fruit. The probability he is
each shot is 0.6. He fires twice. given a red piece of fruit versus
What’s the probability that: yellow fruit is shown below, along
(a) He hits on exactly one shot. with the probability the child eats it
(b) He hits on at least one shot. in either case.
What’s the probability the child will
0.6 𝐻𝑖𝑡
eat the piece of fruit given to them?
0.6 𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
0.6 𝐻𝑖𝑡 0.8 𝐸𝑎𝑡𝑠
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠 0.7 𝑅𝑒𝑑
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠 0.2 𝐷𝑜𝑒𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑡
0.3 𝐸𝑎𝑡𝑠
0.3 𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤
0.7 𝐷𝑜𝑒𝑠𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑡
a HM:
MH: ?
?
b MM:
?
Exercise 2
3 Komiko takes two balls from a 4 Alice has 8 yellow sweets and 3 orange
bag of 5 red and 2 green balls. sweets. Alice takes a sweet, eats it, and
(a) Complete the probability then takes another.
tree. What’s the probability she ate sweets of
(b) What’s the probability that: different colours?
i. Both are green?
ii. They are of the same YO:
colour? OY:
4 2 nd ?
1st
5
6 𝑅
𝑅 2
7 𝐺
6 Dipartko has 6 red shoes, 4 white shoes
? 5? 𝑅
5
and 2 green shoes. He takes two shoes
6
2 𝐺 to wear. What’s the probability they are
7 1 𝐺 mismatching (i.e. different colours)?
6

bi GG:
?
bii RR:
?
?
Exercise 2
6 Jamie has six £1 coins and four
50p coins. He takes three of
these coins at random.
What’s the probability the total
value of the coins will be £2.50?
£1 £1 50p:
£1 50p £1:
50p £1 £1:
? counter.
7 [Edexcel Linked Pair June 2017
Methods 1H Q20]
There are only 5 black counters,
4 red counters and 2 white
counters in a bag.
Charlie takes at random two
counters from the bag.
Work out the probability that
Charlie takes at least one red
? 7
Exercise 2
8 [Edexcel IGCSE May2016-3H Q21]
There are 9 counters in a bag. There
is a number on each counter. Kal
takes at random 3 counters from
the bag.
He adds together the numbers on
the 3 counters to get his Total.
Work out the probability that his
total is 6.
?
9 [Edexcel GCSE(9-1) Mock Set 3
Autumn 2017 3H Q20]
There are 9 counters in a bag. There is
an even number on 3 of the counters.
There is an odd number on 6 of the
counters.
Three counters are going to be taken
at random from the bag.
The numbers on the counters will be
added together to give the total.
Find the probability that the total is
an odd number.
9
?
Algebraic Probability
There are 20 balls in a bag, of which are red, and the rest are blue.
I take two balls from the bag (without replacement). Determine an expression, in
terms of , for the probability that:
(a) Both are red.
(b) Both are blue.

a The presence of variables

? doesn’t change our usual
approach: we still list the
sequences of matching
b outcomes and multiply
? problems for each.
Forming and solving a quadratic equation
There are balls in a bag, of which 7 are red and the rest are blue.
I take two balls from a bag. The probability both a red is .
(a) Show that
(b) Hence determine the number of balls in the bag.

a Multiply the algebraic

fractions together.
Note that ‘show that’ does
*not* mean ‘solve’. We need
to use the information
? bag.Cross-multiply.
There are 10 balls in the provided to form the given
equation.
We end up with the
equation required.

b
We can’t have
? negative balls.
Test Your Understanding
Heather has 7 sweets, of which  are red. The remainder of
the sweets are blue.
Heather eats a sweet, does not regurgitate it, and then
eats another sweet.
The probability that she eats two red sweets is .
(a) Show that
(b) Hence determine the number of red sweets.

a b
or
There are 2 red sweets.

? ?
Exercise 3 (On separate printed worksheet)

1 [Edexcel IGCSE May2013(R)-3H Q21a Edited] A bag contains

counters. 7 of the counters are blue.
Sam takes at random a counter from the bag and does not
replace it. Jill then takes a counter from the bag.
The probability they both take a blue counter is 0.2.

(a) Show that

(b) Determine the value of .

?
Exercise 3
2 [Edexcel GCSE Jun2015-1H Q19a Edited]
There are sweets in a bag. 6 of the sweets are orange.
The rest of the sweets are yellow.
Hannah takes at random a sweet from the bag. She eats the sweet.

Hannah then takes at random another sweet from the bag.

She eats the sweet. The probability that Hannah eats two orange sweets is

(a) Show that

(b) Hence determine the number of sweets in the bag.

b
There are 10 sweets in the bag.
?
Exercise 3
3 [Edexcel GCSE(9-1) Mock Set 2 Spring 2017 2H Q25]
There are some red counters and some white counters in a bag. At the
start, 7 of the counters are red, the rest of the counters are white.

Alfie takes at random a counter from the bag. He does not put the
counter back in the bag. Alfie then takes at random another counter
from the bag.

The probability that the first counter Alfie takes is white and the second
counter Alfie takes is red is

Work out the number of white counters in the bag at the start.

?
Exercise 3
4 [Edexcel IGCSE(9-1) Jan 2019 1H Q20]
A bowl contains pieces of fruit.
Of these, 4 are oranges and the rest are apples.
Two pieces of fruit are going to be taken at random from the bowl.
The probability that the bowl will then contain apples is
Work out the value of .

?
Exercise 3
5 [Edexcel GCSE(9-1) Mock Set 3 Autumn 2017 1H Q15 Edited]
There are only red balls and blue balls in a bag. Shamsa takes
at random 2 balls from the bag.
Find an expression for the probability that both balls are the
same colour.

?
Exercise 3
6 [Edexcel GCSE(9-1) Nov 2018 1H Q22]
There are only green pens and blue
pens in a box.
There are three more blue pens than 21 green pens.
green pens in the box.
There are more than 12 pens in the
box.

Simon is going to take at random two

pens from the box.
The probability that Simon will take
two pens of the same colour is .
Work out the number of green pens ?
in the box.
Exercise 3
N [Maclaurin 2013 Q4] Two coins are biased in such a way that, when
they are both tossed once:
(i) the probability of getting two heads is the same as the probability
of getting two tails;
(ii) the probability of getting one head and one tail is
For each coin, what is the probability of getting a head?

Let the probability of heads for each coin be and respectively.

Then using (i):

Using (ii):

Solving these two equations simultaneously:

and (or vice versa)