INTERNATIONAL GAS MARKET

FINAL PROJECT

STUDENTS LECTURER
DIOMANDE Mamadou Mr ASSEMIEN N. Ambroise
DIOP Papa Samba
NANOU Adou Guy
N’GUESSAN Kouadio Valery
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 SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. WHY AND WHEN WILL GAS SURPASS OIL?
A. WHY GAS SHOULD SURPASS OIL?
B. WHEN GAS SHOULD SURPASS OIL?

2. CAN NATURAL GAS COMPLETELY REPLACE OIL AT GLOBAL LEVEL?

A. WHAT WILL BE THE LIFETIME OF NATURAL GAS IF NATURAL GAS REPLACE
OIL?
B. WHAT IS THE VALUE CHAIN OF NATURAL GAS AND OIL?

CONCLUSION 2
 2039
• WHY AND WHEN WILL GAS PASS OIL?

2040
• CAN GAS COMPLETELY REPLACE OIL AT A GLOBAL LEVEL?IF YES WHY,IF NO
WHY?

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 Effect of fossil energies on global warming and climate change
 Share of primary source of energies supply
 Lack of investment in oil fied development
 Future of oil and natural gas in the next decade (consumption and production)

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 FIRST HYPOTHESIS

 Natural Gas replace Oil and must be covered by its production.

 Consumption of Natural Gas in Exa-joules for the year 2019 was 143,14 and 191,89 for Oil.
 CGAR= 1,4% each year the production level of Natural Gas must be 143,14+ 191.89 = 335.03 Exa-Joules.
 So, the approximate lifetime of the proven reserves of Natural Gas will be equal to
143,14*48,8/335.03=20,84 years.

SECOND HYPOTHESIS

 If the production of Oil and Natural Gas kept increasing respectively each year by 1,4% and 3,1 % the real
lifetime of Natural Gas proven reserves if it replaces Oil will be less than 20 years.
 Therefore, at this production rate, around 2040, all stocks of Natural Gas will be produced assuming that the
energy demand increases each year.
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 Oil & Gas consumption in Exa-Joules
250
f(x) = 111.256232794171 exp( 0.0222954362044826 x )

f(x) = 173.495376995405 exp( 0.00759588716449898 x )

200

150

100

50

0
10 011 012 013 014 015 0 16 0 17 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 02 2 02 3 0 24 0 25 0 26 0 27 0 28 029 030 031 032 0 33 0 34 0 35 0 36 0 37 0 38 039 040 041 04 2 0 43 0 44 0 45
20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Oil (EJ) Exponential (Oil (EJ)) Gas (EJ) Exponential (Gas (EJ))
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