MKA 1013: Environmental Assessment

and Management System

ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION

Modelling Tools

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 MODEL
• Experience, examples from other sites of similar project
• Simple mathematical equations ~impact relationship
MODELS
• Empirical equations – “empirical” pertains to the gathering of data
using evidence that is derived through experience or observation or
by using calibrated scientific tools
• .Physical models
• Computer models

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 Aims and Scope
● This module has three main goals. It will
help:
– Understand how models help environmental
scientists:
• Learn about natural systems
• Predict how natural systems will behave under
different conditions
• Evaluate different management scenarios
– Learn about different approaches to modeling
natural systems
– See and use examples of watershed, lake,
stream, and biotic models

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 Understanding Models
● What is a model?
– A model is a simplified
Surplus Yield Model (Lackey and Hubert representation of the real
1978)
world
● There are two types of models
– Conceptual-a representation
Equilibrium Yield

of a system (consists of
concepts used to help people
know, understand, or simulate
a subject).
– Mathematical-a description
of a system using mathematical
concepts and language.
Fishing Effort

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 Conceptual Models
● How can they be used?
– Design field sampling and monitoring
programs
• Ensure that all important system
attributes are measured
– Determine causes of environmental
problems
• Identify system linkages and possible
cause and effect relationships
– Identify potential conflicts among
management objectives
– Anticipate the full range of possible system
responses to management actions
• Including potential negative effects
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 Categories of Mathematical Models

Type
Empirical Mechanistic
Based on data analysis Mathematical descriptions based
on theory
Time Factor
Static or steady-state Dynamic
Time-independent Describe or predict system
behavior over time

Treatment of Data Uncertainty and Variability

Deterministic Stochastic
Do not address data variability Address variability/uncertainty

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 Selecting or Developing a Model

● Important first steps

– Define the question or problem to be
addressed with the model
– Determine appropriate spatial and temporal
scales
– Identify important ecosystem components
and processes that must be considered to
answer the management questions

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 Selecting or Developing a Model
● Some specific questions to ask
– Temporal scale
• Do I need to predict changes over time or are steady-
state conditions adequate?
• If time is important, do I need to look at
– Short-term change (e.g., daily, seasonal) or
– Long-term change (e.g., trends over years)?
– Spatial scale
• Is my question best addressed:
– On a regional scale (e.g., compare streams in a region)
or
– By modeling specific processes within an individual
system?

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WATER, RIVER AND LAKES

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 Lake Models
● Most are based on mass
balance* calculations
* All fluxes of mass to and
from specific
compartments in the
environment must be
accounted for over time

Annual Water Load to Lake

Runoff
21%
40%
22% 17%

Atmosphere Tributary Groundwater

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 Use Lake Models to Ask:
● What is the lake’s present water
quality?
● Development:
– What was the lake’s water quality
before development?
– How will future watershed
development affect water quality?
● Nutrients:
– What are the most important
sources of nutrients to the lake?
– What level of nutrient loading can
the lake tolerate before it
develops algae problems?
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 Use Lake Models to Ask:
● Nutrient management:
– How much must nutrients be reduced to eliminate nuisance
algal blooms?
– How long will it take for lake water quality to improve once
controls are in place?
– How successful will restoration be, based on water quality
management goals?
– Are proposed lake management goals realistic and cost
effective?

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 Eutrophication Modeling
● Excessive nutrients that
promote algal growth were
identified as the most
important problem in 44% of
all U.S. lakes surveyed in 1998
(U.S. EPA 2000)

● In 2018, Florida had high amounts

of stretching more than 100 miles
along the Gulf Coast. This was
detrimental to fish, turtles, and
dolphins and it hospitalized more
than a dozen people.
e.g., Lake Onondaga,
NY

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 Phosphorus Dynamics in Temperate Lakes –
Observations
● Algal growth is usually limited by the supply of phosphorus (P)
– An increase (or decrease) in P entering the lake over a year or
season will increase (or decrease) the average concentrations
of P and algae
● A lake’s capacity to absorb increased P loading without
consequent algal blooms increases with:
– Volume
– Depth
– Flushing
– Sedimentation rates

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Mass Balance Loading Models
● Assumptions
– Water quality is
degraded by excess
phosphorus in the lake
– Phosphorus comes in
from the watershed
(including sewage
outfalls)
– Phosphorus leaves the
lake via outflows and
by sedimentation

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Conceptual Model of Nutrient Effects on
Water Quality

● Natural phosphorus loading

– Geology/land use
– Precipitation
– Hydrology
– Lake morphometry

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 Model Goals
● Estimate how much phosphorus is entering the lake in order to
estimate the lake water concentration under different scenarios
● Once you can predict the lake phosphorus concentration, use
empirical relationships to deduce other water quality parameters
such as:
– Chlorophyll-a (algae)
– Secchi depth (clarity)
– Dissolved oxygen in the hypolimnion

(bottom layer)

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Model Assumptions

● Algal growth is limited by phosphorus

– Not limited by nitrogen, light, grazers or other
factors
● The whole lake volume is well-mixed
● Water inflow equals water outflow
● Phosphorus obeys mass balance principles

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 Model Steps
1. Develop hydrological and nutrient budgets
2. Calculate lake phosphorus concentrations
from external and internal phosphorus
loading
3. Predict water quality from lake phosphorus
concentration
4. Verify the model
5. Forecast and track changes in water quality

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 Saturation point

Introduction
of waste

[DO]

Clean Oxidation of org. waste Recovery Clean

Distance downstream

~ Can predict the recovery of a stream after discharge of oxygen-

consuming organic wastes

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 Model at Discharges
WASTEWATER
Flowrate Qw 20 per x 50 gal/d/per x 80/100 x 4.54 l/gal
3632 l/gal
0.075 m3/s
Treated wastewater, BODw 50 mg/l (std B)
Dissolved Oxygen DOw 1 mg/l
Temperature Tw 27 oC

RIVER
Flowrate Qr 0.65 m3/2
Area river cross-section Ar wxH
w 2.5 m (width of river)
H 1.1 m (depth of river)
2.75 m2
Net velocity, Vr Qr / Ar
0.2364 m/s
Existing BODr 2.2 mg/l
Existing DOr 6.4 mg/l

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 Model at Discharges
MASS BALANCE
DO at mixing point DOm
(Qw.DOw + Qr.DOr ) / (Qw + Qr)
5.84138 mg/l
Initial DO deficit Da DOr - DOm
0.55862 mg/l
Initial BOD ultimate
(Qw.BODw
La + Qr.BODr) / (Qw + Qr)
7.14483 mg/l
Deoxygen rate const. Kd20C kd20C = k + Vr.n/H
k 0.12 BOD const rate at 20C
vr 0.2364 m/s (river velocity)
n 0.2 net river bed coef.
H 1.5 m (depth of river)
0.15152
Correction for kd27C kd20C (Od)27-20
Od 1.056 Davis & Cornwell
0.22187
Reaction rate const. Kr20C kr20C = 3.9(Vr)0.5/H1.5
1.03209
Correction for kr27C kr20C(Or)27-20
Or 1.024 Davis & Cornwell
1.21848
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 Model at Discharges
Time when DO minimim tc 1/(kr-kd).ln [ kr/kd (1 - Da (kr-kd) / kd.La ]
1.27496 day
Oxygen critical deficit D kd.La / (kr-kd) { [ e -kd.tc - e -kr.tc ] + Da. e -kr.tc }
0.98045
Dissolved Oxygen Critical DOc DOr-D
5.41955 mg/l
Distance during DOc tc.Vr.(86400 sec/d).1/1000 m/km)
26.03708 km

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 6.6

6.2
DO concentrations (mg/L)

5.8

5.41
5.4

5
1.27
0 5 10 15 20 25
Time (days)

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EXTRAPOLATION & INTERPOLATION

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 ● A correlation of impact may lead to a prediction
● The result from interpolation is usually more accurate than
extrapolation
% of fishing grounds afford

Duration of Oil spill (t)

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Modeling framework

spatial: 5’ spatial: 5’
temporal: daily temporal: monthly
results: daily/monthly results: monthly

discharge, runoff, WorldQual

WaterGAP3 flow velocity Water Quality
Hydrology Model
Model
consumptive
water use return flow

spatial: 5‘ temporal: daily results: daily/monthly/yearly

WaterGAP3
Water Use Models
electricity
agriculture domestic manufacturing
production

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 Data Verification

point sources diffuse sources

urban manufacturing domestic domestic domestic agriculture agriculture natural

surface (wastewater) (urban) (rural) – septic tanks (organic (industrial back-
runoff – sewage – sewage – pit latrines fertilizer) fertilizer) ground
– hanging – inadequate
latrines sanitation

“scattered settlements”

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AIR POLLUTION

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 Air Quality Modeling (AQM)
● Mathematical and numerical techniques are used in AQM to
simulate the dispersion of air pollutants.

● Modeling of the dispersion of pollutants

– Toxic and odorous substances
– Single or multiple points
– Point, Area, or Volume sources

● Input data required for Air Quality Modeling

– Source characteristics
– Meteorological conditions
– Site and surrounding conditions
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 Ambient Air Concentration Modeling

Types of Pollutant Sources

Point Sources/Stationary
• e.g., stacks or vents

Area Sources
• e.g., landfills, ponds, storage piles

Volume Sources
• e.g., conveyors, structures with multiple vents

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 Factors Affecting Dispersion of Pollutants In
The Atmosphere
Source Characteristics
Emission rate of pollutant
Stack height
Exit velocity of the gas
Exit temperature of the gas
Stack diameter
–Meteorological Conditions

Wind velocity
Wind direction
Ambient temperature
Atmospheric stability

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 Modelling Available

● Gaussian Model
● Transportation Model
● Stack Model

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