Tropical Cyclones

Characteristics and Forecasting

Horace H. P. Burton and Selvin DeC. Burton

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project

Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
Outline
• Introduction
* Definitions
* Characteristics

• Forecast Methods

• Forecast errors

• Probability forecasts

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Definitions
• Tropical cyclone
An area of low pressure which develops over
tropical or subtropical waters

• Tropical depression
A weak tropical cyclone in which the maximum
surface wind is 38 mph (62 km/h or 33 kt) or less

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Definitions
• Tropical storm
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum surface
wind ranges from 39 to 73 mph (63 to 118 km/h or
34 to 64 kt)
• Hurricane
A tropical cyclone with highest sustained winds
74 mph (119 km/h or 65 kt) or more

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Saffir-simpson Scale

Sustained Winds Pressure

Category Knots Km/hour Millibars Damage Level

1 65 – 82 119 – 15 > 980 Low

2 83 – 97 154 – 177 965 - 979 Moderate
3 98 – 113 179 – 209 945 - 964 Extensive
4 114 – 135 211 – 249 920 - 944 Extreme
5 > 135 > 249 < 920 Catastrophic

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Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
• Season - June to November

• Average - 9 tropical storms

- 6 hurricanes

• Most active months - August and September

• Movement - west or west northwest

- recurve to east generally in western
and northwestern Atlantic

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Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
• Size - 300 to 1500 km in diameter

• Horizontal structure
* Eye - 20 km
* Eyewall - 30 to 50 km
* Spiral bands

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Tropical Cyclone Characteristics
• Hurricane force winds generally extend out about
100 km (60 miles) from the centre

• Storm force winds may extend out as much as 500

km (300 miles)

• Maximum wind speeds between 12 and 50 km

from centre

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Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
• Early and precise warnings (forecasts) do not
necessarily remove the risk of damage or loss or
life, but the effects may be significantly reduced

• Current inaccuracies in forecast dictate over

warning

• False warnings can produce an attitude of

scepticism

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Forecasting Methods
• Forecasting methods have evolve to become more
complex
* Pre 1960 - simple subjective methods
• cloud types and motion, swells, pressure
* Post 1960 - more sophisticated objective
methods
• complex statistical techniques and computer models

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Forecasting Methods
• A tropical cyclone forecast involves the prediction
of several interrelated features, including
* The track, winds, rainfall, storm surge, areas
threatened

• NHC normally issues a forecast every 6 hours for

period extending out to 72 hours
• Official forecast is based on the guidance obtained
from a variety of subjective and objective models

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Forecast Errors
• Forecast errors arise from
* A lack of a full understanding of the formation
and growth of tropical cyclones
* The limitations of the forecasting techniques

• Users of forecasts must be aware of the limitations

of information in advisories

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Forecast Errors - characteristics
• Still substantially large although showing a slow
and steady decrease

• Increase remarkably with increasing time

• Are approximately 30 % of the cyclone movement

over the same time

• Large year-to-year variations

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Official Forecast Errors for Atlantic

Forecast Interval (hr)

0 12 24 36 48 72
Track in km (1986-1995) 26 91 173 252 335 506
Intensity in kt (1990-1995) 3 7 10 13 16 19

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Initial forecast errors
• Average official initial forecast errors
* 26 km for position
* 3 kt for intensity

• Range of initial forecast errors

* 10 km for good eye to more 180 km for poorly
defined centre
* as much as 30 kt for intensity

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Strike probability forecasts
• One method use to objectively define uncertainty
inherent in forecasts

• Derived from knowledge of past cyclones and

forecast errors in the region of interest

• Provide valuable early guidance in estimating the

risk of tropical cyclones affecting important or
vulnerable facilities

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Use of strike probability forecasts
• To extend the usable length of forecasts
• To provide a quantitative assessment of the threat
posed by a tropical cyclone
• To compare the relative threat
• To cause a consistent response
• As a tool in risk analysis

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Probability ellipses - Georges 1998

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Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
Strike probability forecasts
• Uncertainty increases as the forecast interval
increases

• 72 hours probability less than that 12 hours

• Maximum probability at 72 hours is about 10%

compared to about 70% at 12 hours

• Longer lead-time actions must be based on

smaller probabilities

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Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology