CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE CHANGE:

• A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests)
by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an
extended period, typically decades or longer (IPCC, 2007).
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS:

• The effects of climate change on natural and human systems (IPCC, 2007).
VULNERABILITY

• Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and
variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC,
2007).
ADAPTATION:

• The process through which societies increase their ability to cope with an uncertain
future, which involves taking appropriate action and making the adjustments and changes
to reduce the negative impacts of climate change (UNFCCC, 2007).
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

• “The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimize

vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit
(mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broader context
of sustainable development.” (UNISDR, 2004, pp. 17)
 Climate change: weather versus climate

Climate defines the envelope within which weather

events take place.

Weather events are governed by the large scale

processes of the atmosphere

As the large scale processes change, so does the

regional manifestation of weather events

One cannot attribute a single event to climate change

RAINFALL

• Rainfall changes projected by most GCMs are relatively modest, at least in relation to

present-day rainfall variability. In general, rainfall is projected to increase over the
continent-the exceptions being southern Africa and parts of the Horn of Africa; here,
rainfall is projected to decline by 2050 by about 10%
RAINFALL REDUCTION & INCREASE

•  robust reduction in precipitation of up to 0.4 mm day−1 over the Limpopo Basin and

smaller areas of the Zambezi Basin in Zambia, and also parts of Western Cape, South
Africa.

• Models project precipitation increase of up to 0.1 mm day−1 over central and western

South Africa and in southern Namibia.
Seasonal Prediction-South Africa
Rainfall forecast
issued in Dec. 2008
by a multi-model
operational
Seasonal
Forecast
by the South
African
Weather Service.
 Regional Climate: Africa - Example

January-February-
March mean
precipitation for
1998-2008 period.
 Regional Climate: Africa - Example

July-August-Septmeber
mean precipitation for
1998-2008 period.
Detail the impacts of climate change on surface water resources of Zimbabwe