Determinants of Disaster Risks:

EXPOSURE and VULNERABILITY

VICTOR ANGELO O. HERMOSO
Subject Team Leader – SHS DisReadi

CHRISTINE BAJIO, ERWIN REYES, JOHN BRYAN ZAMORA

Instructors – SHS DisReadi
When do we say that a RISK is a RISK?
• Risks (r) are identifiable through three elements: HAZARDS
(h), EXPOSURE (e), and VULNERABILITY (v); therefore, it is a
function of the three said elements, in a mathematical sense.

𝑟 = 𝑓 (h , 𝑣 ,𝑒 )
When do we say that a RISK is a RISK?
• Given that risk is a function of hazards,
vulnerability, and exposure, it then therefore
becomes the product of all the elements.

𝑟 = 𝑓 (h , 𝑣 ,𝑒 )

r
Relationship of Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability

• Hazards are causative

agents that amplifies risk
when Vulnerability
becomes high and Exposure
becomes extensive; In other
words, The degree at which
a hazard can become
destructive depends on
how exposed a given area is
and how vulnerable it is to
the hazard
Relationship of Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability

• In simplified terms,
HAZARD is the
CAUSE of a RISK,
and both EXPOSURE
and VULNERABILITY
determines the
potentiality of a
risk.
 Defining Exposure and Vulnerability
• Exposure is the situation of people and assets in a
given area where there is/are potential hazard/s
• Vulnerability is the susceptibility of an individual, a
community, assets, or systems to a hazard, which is
determined by physical, social, economic, and/or
environmental factors
Exposure and Disasters
• A given community can either be highly
prone to disasters or are safeguarded from
it depending on its exposure to the hazard
present in the area where the community
lies.
• Danger zone – An area where the highest
risk are present
CASE 1: Mount Mayon
• Mt. Mayon is an area where risk
always high due to its activity
– 30 recorded eruptions to date
– 1993 – with 79 deaths
• Area in red – Primary Danger
Zone
• Area in blue – Secondary Danger
Zone
• Irregular area – Pyroclastics
Danger Zones
• Pinpoint Areas – Safe Viewpoints
CASE 2: Tacloban City and Typhoon
Haiyan
• 2 days prior to landfall of
Typhoon Haiyan, DENR
released a flood hazard
map (shown in picture)
• Yellow areas were shown
to be where flooding
would be the worst, hence
evacuation in the yellow
areas were prompted
Elements Exposed to Hazards during Disasters

• Individuals
• Infrastructures
– Shelters
– Public facilities
– Buildings of significant value
– Other relevant infrastructures
• Assets
– Primary needs
– Agricultural commodities
– Environmental assets
– Business activities
Vulnerability and Disasters
• The extent at which a disaster brought by
a certain hazard is determined by how
much is a certain area is exposed to a
hazard/s
• Can be physical, social, economic, or
environmental, depending on what is
being considered when assessing risks
Case En Pointe: Global Vulnerability

• As Reported by UNISDR,
most of Africa, Central
America, the western side
of South America, and a
Current Disaster Risk Zones
significant part of Asia have
disaster risks ranging from
medium to very high
• As of 2017, the populations
at vulnerable to those risks
are those that are highly
exposed to the medium to
very high risk zones

Disaster Risk Report as of 2017

Case En Pointe: Global Vulnerability

• On the last 12 years (2000 to 2012), it has been shown that the
human population and economy would suffer the most, and is
predicted that the trend would be the same for the years to come
Types of Vulnerability
• Physical Vulnerability
– Extent of the risk targeted at assets
– Determined by population density, settlement
remoteness, site, design, and nature of raw
materials
• Social Vulnerability
– Extent of the risk targeted at individuals
– Determined by social interactions, local /
national institutions, or cultural values systems
Types of Vulnerability
• Economic Vulnerability
– Extent of the risk targeted at the economy
– Determined by the economic status of individuals,
communities, and nations
• Environmental Vulnerability
– Extent of the risk targeted at the natural
environment
– Determined by the abundance of available natural
resources and the state of the resources themselves
Resilience and Coping Capacity
• Resilience is the ability of an individual or
community to flourish in the face of
disaster risks
• Coping capacity is determines resilience,
as it is the ability of an individual or a
community to manage disasters
depending on the availability of resources
Completing the Mathematical Picture
• As coping capacity (C) is a determinant of
resilience (R), therefore…

𝑅 =𝐶
• Resilience is also a determinant of risk, as
risks increases as resilience decreases

r
Completing the Mathematical Picture
• As risk is directly proportional to hazards,
exposure, and vulnerability, and resilience
is equated to coping capacity and inversely
proportional to risks, therefore, combining
all mathematical certainties…

h× 𝑣 × 𝑒
𝑟=
𝐶
Types of Responses to Risks
• Risk contingency – Making plans to handle and manage the
risk
• Risk Avoidance – Changing strategies and plans to avoid risks
• Risk Mitigation – Taking action to reduce risks
• Risk Sharing – Distributing the risk to all that are affected
• Risk Transfer – Transferring the risk to a third party
• Risk Acceptance – When there is nothing else that can be
done, all that is left is to take the risk itself
• Risk enhancement – When risks present an opportunity, you
enhance the risk
• Risk exploitation – When resources becomes available when
risks become apparent, you exploit the risk itself
Quiz
• Group the class according to their CAPSTONE
groups
• Ask the class to ready their initial assessment of
their chosen community
• From the data that they have, identify potential
risks from disasters based from the degree of their
exposure and their extent of vulnerability to
disasters
• Give explanations to each risk with due references
Quiz
• Paper content:
– Brief introduction to risks and their determinants
(exposure and vulnerability)
– Brief profile of the target community of the group
– Potential risk table:
Identified Elements Degree of Extent of Explanation
Risks Affected by Exposure to Vulnerability to
the Risk Disasters Disasters
5 - Highly exposed 5 - Highly vulnerable
4 – Moderately 4 – Moderately
exposed vulnerable
3 – Exposed 3 – Vulnerable
2 – Partially Exposed 2 – Partially vulnerable
1 – Least exposed 1 – Invulnerable
0 – Not exposed
 Rubrics
CRITERIA 5 Points 4 Points 3 Points 2 Points 1 Point SCORE

Overall The paper is very The paper is The paper meets The paper The paper is
the required presented limited entirely __ x 2 =
Content informative informative standard information uninformative

All potential risks were A few potential risks Some potential Most of the
Risks determined based from were missed based risks were missed potential risks were All potential risks
Identified the given community from the given based from the missed based from were not provided __ x 1.5 =
profile community profile given community the given by the paper
profile community profile

The paper used • A few • Some • A lot of • All references

• references references were references were were not up-to-
up-to-date were not up-to- not up-to-date not up-to-date date
references date
References • A lot of references • An average • Limited • Only one __ x 1.5 =
• The number of number of references were reference was
were used to references met references were used in the used in the
support the given the required used in the given given
explanation standard explanation explanation explanation
A significant The grammar and
Grammar No errors on grammar A few minor errors amount of minor A lot of minor and usage of the paper
and Usage and usage were were committed errors and a few major errors were was entirely
committed major errors were committed erroneous
committed
 Leader’s / Member’s Evaluation Table
Criteria Member 1 Member 2 Member 3 Member 4 Member 5 Member 6 Member 7

Participates
actively in the
group activity
Does his/her
assigned task
in the group
Contributes
significantly to
the group’s
output
Gives quality
output as a
contribution
to the group
activity
TOTAL
Rating and Percentage
• 20 – Full Score
• 19 – 95% of the Group Score
• 18 – 90% of the Group Score
• 17 – 85% of the Group Score
• 16 – 80% of the Group Score
• 15 – 75% of the Group Score
• 14 – 70% of the Group Score
• 13 – 65% of the Group Score
• 12 – 60% of the Group Score
• 11 – 55% of the Group Score
• 10 – 50% of the Group Score
• 9 – 45% of the Group Score
• 8 – 40% of the Group Score
• 7 – 35% of the Group Score
• 6 – 30% of the Group Score
• 5 – 25% of the Group Score
• 4 – 20% of the Group Score
• 3 – 15% of the Group Score
• 2 – 10% of the Group Score
• 1 – 5% of the Group Score
• 0 – AutoZero Score