UNDERSTANDING

PROCESS TRACING
Presented By: Zahra
University of the Punjab
Program: M.Phil Political Science
Contents
• What is Process Tracing?
• Black Box
• Types of Process Tracing
• Theory Guided Process Tracing
• Theory Building process Tracing
• Explaining Outcome
• Causal Mechanism of Process Tracing
• Empirical Fingerprints
• 4 Tests
What is Process Tracing?
• “Single Case Research method that can be used to make within case
inferences about presence and absent of casual mechanism” (Beach,
2012).

• “The causal effect link that connect independent variable and

outcome is unwrapped and divided into smaller steps; then
investigator looks for observable evidence for each step” ( Van Evera,
1997)
Black Box

X ????? Y
(Dependent
(Outcome)
Variable)
Types of Process Tracing
Beach and Pedersen (2013) outline three distinct types of process
tracing
• Theory-testing,
• Theory-building and
• Explaining-outcome.

Each uses a different approach to analyzing how a specific cause (A) led
to a given outcome (B) within a case. intervention should lead to
outcome B).
Theory Guided Process Tracing
TGPT explains the outcomes of interest by going back in time and
identifying the key events, processes, or decisions that link the
hypothesized cause or causes with the outcomes.

Dependent Independent
Causal Mechanism
Variable Variable
N1 = > N2 => N3….. Nn
X Y
Example
• Owen’s Causal Mechanism whereby democracy produces
Peace.
Part of Mechanism Conceptualization of part ( Entities and Activities)
Context Crisis between state that led to war
Condition (X) Pair of States where analysed states are democratic states and
opponent is either democratic or autocratic

N1 Liberals will trust states that are liberal and not trust that are
autocratic
N2 When liberal states observe foreign states becoming liberal state
then they will develop pacific relation with tat state

N3 Liberal States will change their foreign policy assessment for

liberal state.
N4 Liberal states will agitate their policy in war time crises
Outcome (Y) During War Crises Liberal States will not go to war with other
liberal States.
Theory Building Process Tracing
• Theory building involves analysis where we know X and Y, but are in
the dark regarding the mechanism linking the two.

Empirical Empirical Manifestation of each part of Empirical

Manifestation of causal mechanism linking X an Y Manifestation of Y
X
Explaining Outcomes

• Explaining outcome Process-tracing' involves using the available

evidence to work backwards from a known outcome to uncover the
causal mechanism(s) that produced the outcome.
Causal Mechanism in Process Tracing
Part 1 Part 2

Activities Verb Verb

X
Y
( Dependent Entities Noun Noun ( Outcome)
Variable)
Empirical Fingerprint
• “Logic of Empirical Testing in Process tracing is if we expect X to cause
Y, each part of X and Y mechanism should leave predicted empirical
manifestation which can be observed in empirical material” ( Beach,
2012).
4 TESTS
• Hoop Test
• Smoking Gun Test
• Straw in Winds
• Double Decisive