FUZZY LOGIC

LANZ PAIGAO
JOFET PIUS MAGBATA
BREN ANDRES​
 INTRODUCTION
FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzzy logic is able to encode imprecision, vagueness, and

uncertainties common in applied hydrology by using the concept of the
membership function that defines partial membership in a set. Two
main domains of fuzzy logic are considered: function of fuzzy numbers
and fuzzy rule-based modeling (FRM).
Methodologies of fuzzy number functions consider the vertex
method, the extension principle and fuzzy numerical simulation. Fuzzy
set application examples cover water supply risk, surface and
groundwater flow and transport, regression analysis, geostatistics,
classification, and decision making. FRM calculates output of a process
from a given input using fuzzy logic, specifically fuzzy rules.
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FUNCTION OF FUZZY
NUMBERS
 THREE COMMON METHODS FOR COMPUTING FUNCTIONS Y = F (X1,
X 2 , … , X J ) O F J F U Z Z Y VA R I A B L E S I N C L U D E
FUZZY LOGIC

(1) discretize membership values with level sets, this is the

vertex method (Dong and Shah, 1987);

(2) directly calculate membership function value µy for

various x values, using the extension principle (Zadeh,
1965);

4 (3) fuzzy numerical simulation (Chanas and Nowakowski,

1988).
APPLICATION EXAMPLES
 WATER SUPPLY RISK ANALYSIS UNDER
CLIMATE CHANGE
FUZZY LOGIC

Risk, in general, includes the combination of the uncertain

adverse events and the consequence of these events. Here, adverse
events correspond to water shortages and water quality
insufficiencies. Due to the inherently uncertain climate change
estimation and future socioeconomic conditions, all elements of risk
(water supply, water demands, and consequences of water shortages)
are also uncertain. Probabilistic risk analysis commonly uses
frequency-based statistical information; however, this is rarely
available in climate change situations

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 GROUNDWATER FLOW AND TRANSPORT
FUZZY LOGIC

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow under steady

state and transient conditions involves the prediction of
hydraulic head in space and time. In the modeling process,
parameter uncertainty is one of the major barriers to reliable
prediction of groundwater system response. Stochastic
modeling techniques have been used extensively for
consideration of uncertainty that stems from few
measurement data in the presence of spatial variability.
Alternatively, groundwater flow and transport modeling can
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be performed by the help of fuzzy-set theory.
 SURFACE WATER
FUZZY LOGIC

Well-known uncertainties have been described by fuzzy sets,

including, among others, river discharge and stage (Shrestha and
Simonovic, 2010), runoff coefficient (Sen and Altunkaynak, 2005),
unit hydrograph (Bardossy et al., 2006), the effect of precipitation
uncertainty (Maskey, 2004), or stream pollution (Mpimpas et al.,
2008).

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 FUZZY REGRESSION
FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzzy regression may be used whenever a relationship between

variables is imprecise and/or data are inaccurate and/or sample size
is insufficient as is the case in many hydrological applications
(Bardossy et al., 1990). Fuzzy regression expresses regression
parameters as fuzzy numbers that leads to the dependent variable, y
also as fuzzy number. The purpose is to find a regression model that
minimizes a measure of vagueness of y, for example the area under
the membership function.

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 FUZZY GEOSTATISTICS
FUZZY LOGIC

Often in applied geostatistics limited amount of exact

measurement data at exact locations is available. On the
other hand, different type and quality of additional inexact
data, regional hydrogeological, or expert information may
be available. Fuzzy set methods can handle inexact data and
locations as well as the combination of exact and inexact
data (Bardossy et al., 1988; Diamond, 1989).

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 FUZZY CLASSIFICATION (CLUSTERING)
FUZZY LOGIC

C-means clustering is a common technique to group data

sets that contain similar information into relatively
homogeneous clusters by minimizing inner distances
between data points and cluster centers. It is hard (crisp)
partitions because each data point must be assigned to a
single cluster. In hydrology, this requirement may be too
restrictive since a data point may pertain to more than one
cluster.

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 FUZZY DECISION MAKING
FUZZY LOGIC

Objectives, constraints, and parameters of water

resources decision models are often imprecisely known,
and therefore amenable to fuzzy-logic formulation. In case
of selection among alternatives, the objectives are
calculated as fuzzy numbers.

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FUZZY RULE-BASED MODELING
(FUZZY INFERENCE)
 METHODOLOGY OF FUZZY RULE-
BASED MODELING
FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzzy rule-based modeling (FRM) calculates output of a process

or system from a given input using fuzzy logic, specifically fuzzy
rules. FRM shows much potential in cases when a causal
relationship is well established but difficult to calculate under real-
life conditions, when data are scarce and imprecise, or when a given
input vector has several contradictory responses which may be true
to varying degrees.
The primary difference between fuzzy control and FRM is that
fuzzy control applies feedback, whereas FRM simulates processes
usually without a feedback mechanism.
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 THE METHODOLOGY OF FRM TO MODEL HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
CONSISTS OF THE FOLLOWING STEPS (BARDOSSY AND DUCKSTEIN,
1 9 9 5 ) ( M O R E D E TA I L S C A N B E F O U N D I N T H E S U P P L E M E N T ) :
FUZZY LOGIC

1. Selection and representation of input (premises) and output (responses)

variables by fuzzy numbers.
2. Definition of the training and validation data sets.
3. Learning of the fuzzy rules using available measurement information, expert
knowledge, limited small-scale process modeling, or the combinations
thereof.
4. Application of the fuzzy rules using the validation data set. The response for
each data point in the validation set is estimated by using the rules of the
system constructed in the calibration phase.
5. Evaluate the fuzzy rule-based model in terms of how well it reproduces the
statistical properties of observed drought index in the validation set.
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A P P L I C AT I O N E X A M P L E S O F F U Z Z Y R U L E -
BASED MODELING
 TELECONNECTION
FUZZY LOGIC

The relationship between CP types and ENSO as

premises and local monthly precipitation in Arizona
under climate change, as response, was analyzed by
Galambosi et al. (2009).

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 ELEMENTS OF THE HYDROLOGICAL
CYCLE
FUZZY LOGIC

Temperature as premise was considered to estimate

potential evapotranspiration (ET) as response in Greece
(Tzimopoulos et al., 2008). FRM was trained with
measured temperature and ET. The results were compared
to the calibration data set and calculation with the Blaney-
Criddle method, and FRM showed high efficiency in
predicting ET. FRM was applied to the description of
infiltration and unsaturated flow (Bardossy, 1996). The
fuzzy rules describing vertical water movement were
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formulated with the help of relative soil moisture contents .
 RAINFALL-RUNOFF
FUZZY LOGIC

Among many FRM to simulate event-based runoff,

Tayfur and Singh (2006) employed rainfall and infiltration
rate, and time as premises to estimate event-based
discharge. The fuzzy rules were learned and validated using
measured data. The results compared to neural net and
physically based models indicated FRM advantages,
namely transparency and consideration of uncertainties in
the fuzzy inference procedure through the IF-THEN
statements.
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 STREAMFLOW
FUZZY LOGIC

Lagged discharges on three upstream river

branches served premises to forecast flood
hydrograph on a downstream river (Zhang et al.,
2012). Historical data provided the learning and
validation data set.

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 WATER QUALITY
FUZZY LOGIC

FRM and neural net (ANN) was used to estimate river

sediment concentration from measured lagged discharge
and stage data (Lohani et al., 2007). Both FRM and ANN
were found to be considerably better than the conventional
rating curve method. However, FRM resulted in more
accurate estimates than ANN for almost all river stages .

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 RESERVOIR OPERATION CONTROL
FUZZY LOGIC

Operation policy of a multipurpose reservoir can be

obtained by FRM (Mehta and Jain, 2009). Premises include
reservoir level, inflow, demand, and flood storage to
calculate release as response. Measurement data of
premises and actual releases were used to define the
learning and validation sets. Both Mamdani-type FRM and
adaptive neuro-fuzzy interactive system (Ross, 2010)
offered good results, but FRM proved more users friendly

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 FRM CLASSIFICATION
FUZZY LOGIC

Four chemical indicators were used as premises to

classify groundwater quality for irrigation purposes
(Priya, 2013). The fuzzy rules allowed certain flexibility
because slightly different indicators may correspond to a
given class. The model was validated using ground water
quality data and the results improved a widely accepted
standard classification system. FRM was applied to
classify daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) for
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estimating coastalwave properties (Pringle et al., 2014).
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