Project Management

Dr. Sherif Elatriby

Course Code: IENG344

 Project
Management
Lecture No. 5
Chapter III
Project Time
Management
Lecture Outline:

• Chapter III “Project Time Management”

Ö What is Project Time Management?
Ö Project time management processes
Ö The Critical Path Method (CPM)
Ö Gantt chart
– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 3

Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

PERT is a network analysis technique used to estimate project duration when

there is a high degree of uncertainty about the individual activity duration
estimates.

PERT is based on the assumption that an activity’s duration follows a

probability distribution instead of being a single value.

Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of an

activity’s duration distribution:

 Pessimistic time
 Most likely time
 Optimistic time

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 4

Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

 Pessimistic time (tp )

the time the activity would take if things did not go well

 Most likely time (tm )

the consensus best estimate of the activity’s duration

 Optimistic time (to )

the time the activity would take if things did go well

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 5

Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 6

Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

 Distribution

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Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

PERT Formula and Example

 Mean (expected time) =
optimistic time + 4X most likely time + pessimistic time
6
 Example:
PERT Mean (expected time) =
8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays = 12 days
6
where :
8 = optimistic time, 10 = most likely time, and 24 = pessimistic time

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 8

Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

PERT Formula and Example

t p 4tm t o
t e  
6
t p t o
 ( 2
) 2

6
 project  2
cp

where : te = μ = mean (estimated time)

σ = standard deviation of activity
σcp = standard deviation of critical path activities
Lecture (5) Project Time Management 9
Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified time:

Probability computations can be made using the normal distribution table.

X 
Z 
 project

Where:  = te = mean (project estimated time)

project = project standard deviation
X = (proposed ) specified time
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Project Time Management
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) X 
Z 
Probability computation  project

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Project Time Management
PERT Example
An engineering project has the following activities, whose time estimates are
listed below:
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (day) Time (day) Time (day)
A -- 4 6 8
B -- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6
E A 0.5 1 1.5
F B,C 3 4 5
G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
Lecture (5) K Time Management
Project G,I 3 5 7 12
Project Time Management
PERT Example
Required:
1. Draw an arrow diagram representing the project.
2. Find the expected duration and variance for each activity
3. Compute ES, EF, LS, and LF for each activity
4. What are the critical path and the associated time?
5. Calculate the variance and standard deviation of the project.
6. What is the expected time for 68, 95, and 99 percent of completion confidence?
7. Find the probability that the project will be completed in 25 days or less

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Project Time Management
PERT Example
1. PERT Network (AOA)

A E H J

S C F

B I K
F

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Project Time Management
PERT Example
2. Calculation of mean time(μ) and variance (σ2)
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9
B 4 4/9
C 3 0
D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36
F 4 1/9
G 2 4/9
H 6 1/9
I 5 1
J 3 1/9
K 5 4/9
Lecture (5) Project Time Management 15
Project Time Management
PERT Example
3. ES, EF, LS, and LF for each activity

Act Prec. Time Variance

A - 6 4/9
- 4 4/9
A 3 0
A 5 1/9
A 1 1/36
B,C 4 1/9
B,C 2 4/9
E,F 6 1/9
E,F 5 1
D,H 3 1/9
G,I 5 4/9

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Project Time Management
PERT Example
3. ES, EF, LS, and LF for each activity

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Project Time Management
PERT Example
4. Determination of critical path and its time:
The critical path is: (ACFIK)
The critical path time = 6+3+4+5+5 = 23 day

5. The variance and standard deviation of the project

The variance of project
The variance of project = variance of critical path
= Variance)A + Variance)C + Variance)F +Variance)I +Variance)K
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9 = 2
The standard deviation of project
4 1 4
 project  cp2   0   1   1.4142
9 9 9
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Project Time Management
PERT Example
6. The expected time for 68, 95, and 99 percent of completion confidence
The expected time for 68 percent completion
pr (Z) = 0.68

From normal distribution tables:

At pr (Z) = 0.68 Z = 0.47
X 
Z 
 project

X  23
 0.47  X = 23.664 day
1.4142
Repeat the same steps to find expected time of 95 and 99 percent
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Project Time Management

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 20

Project Time Management
PERT Example
7. The probability that the project will be completed in 25 days
or less [X≤ 25]

X  25  23
Z    1.414
 project 1.4142
From normal distribution tables
pr (Z ≤ 1.414) = 0.9207

Lecture (5) Project Time Management 21

Project Time Management
Comparison Between PERT & CPM
Both are Quantitative Techniques of Network
Analysis

Both are used as tools for Decision Making

Both involve drawing & analysis of Network Diagram

on various scores

PER CPM
T
Probabilistic Model Deterministic Model

Related with activities Related with activities

of uncertain time of Well-Known time
Lecture (5) Project Time Management 22