Floodplain Modelling using Remote Sensing Data under

Land-Use Change in Ethiopia

Master Thesis by Mehari Hiben
hiben123@gmail.com

UNESCO-IHE Master programme in Water Science and Engineering, specialisation

Hydroinformatics: modelling and information systems for water management
Abstract
Abstract
Flood inundation models are useful tools for floodplain management as they can help predict and determine flood prone areas and therefore
Floodainundation
support modelsland-use
more appropriate are useful tools for
planning floodplain
(such management
as afforestation, as they
and soil can help
and water predict and
conservation determine
activities) and flood prone human
discourage areas and therefore
settlements
insupport a areas.
high risk more appropriate land-use
This information systemplanning (such as
can assist afforestation,
land-use and urbanand planners
soil and water conservation
as well activities)
as local authorities in and discourage
managing human
floodplain settlements
areas under
in high risk
significant areas. This information
environmental change, bysystem
proposing can mitigation
assist land-use
measures,and urban planners and
set priorities, as well as policy
assist local authorities
development. in managing floodplainGeographic
In this research, areas under
significant System
Information environmental
(GIS) ischange,
coupledby with proposing
hydraulicmitigation
modellingmeasures,
(HEC-RAS) settopriorities,
produce aand assist
flood mappolicy
of thedevelopment.
Fogera floodplain In this
(the research, Geographic
upper Blue Nile in
Ethiopia) under different scenarios of land use change simulated via the SWAT modelling system. GIS provides a broad range of toolsNile
Information System (GIS) is coupled with hydraulic modelling (HEC-RAS) to produce a flood map of the Fogera floodplain (the upper Blue forin
Ethiopia) under
determining areas different
affected by scenarios
floods and of for
land use change
forecasting simulated
areas via the
that are likely SWAT
to be modelling
flooded system. GIS provides a broad range of tools for
(probabilistic).
determining areas affected by floods and for forecasting areas that are likely to be flooded (probabilistic).
Research questions
Research questions
Problem statement 1. How valuable is the use of satellite imagery under uncertainty for hydraulic model
Problem statement 1. How valuable
calibration is the use of satellite imagery under uncertainty for hydraulic model
and validation?
• Fogera floodplain has experienced many
•severe
Fogera floodplain has experienced many calibration and validation?
flood disasters 2. How does flood extent vary as the result of land use change ?
severe flood disasters 2. How does flood extent vary as the result of land use change ?
• Unreliability of ground data Objectives
• Unreliability of ground data Objectives
• Land-use change ,Population growth • To improve our ability to model the Fogera floodplain by using satellite observations
• Land-use change ,Population growth •ofTo improve our ability toas
model the
flood inundation extent a tool toFogera floodplain
calibrate and validateby using satellite observations
the inundation maps that
of flood inundation extent as
are produced by hydraulic modelling a tool to calibrate and validate the inundation maps that
are produced by hydraulic modelling
• To evaluate the flood hazard under different land use change scenarios
Case study • To evaluate the flood hazard under different land use change scenarios
Case study • To quantify and represent the uncertainties from the hydrodynamic model in
Ethiopia •probabilistic
To quantifyflood
and represent the uncertainties from the hydrodynamic model in
Ethiopia maps
probabilistic flood maps
8000
Methods and tools Ensemble Simulation Model Result
Methods and tools
1.2e+5 Gumara flow simulation histogram

• Phase-one: Hydrological model building using SWAT

1.0e+5

• Phase-one: Hydrological model building using SWAT

8.0e+4

6000

Frequency
A hydrological model will be built calibrated and validated against the ground 6.0e+4
Inundation Width (m)

A hydrological
data. These willmodel will a
produce behydrographs
built calibrated and validated
of current against
and future land the
use.ground
4.0e+4

2.0e+4
Frequency
Normal

data. These will produce a hydrographs of current and future land use. 4000 0.0

• Phase-two: Hydraulic model building using HEC-RAS

60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Flow (m3/sec)

• Phase-two: Hydraulic model building using HEC-RAS

A hydraulic model will be built calibrated and validated against the satellite
A hydraulic model will be built calibrated and validated against the satellite
imagery.
2000

imagery.
• Phase-three: Ensemble Simulation using Monte Carlo techniques
• Phase-three: Ensemble Simulation using Monte Carlo techniques 0

An ensemble simulation model will be carried out under the GLUE framework
An
andensemble
the modelsimulation
performance model
willwill
be be carried out under the GLUE framework
evaluated.
and the model performance will be evaluated. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000
• Phase-four: Probabilistic flood inundation mapping using GIS Distance (m)
• Phase-four: Probabilistic flood inundation mapping using GIS Flood Extent From MODIS Satellite Imagery

A probabilistic flood inundation map will be produced using freely available Model Result with Least Error

A probabilistic flood
remote-sensing datainundation
under the mapGLUE willframework.
be produced using freely available Input Uncertainty

remote-sensing data under the GLUE framework.

Conclusions and recommendations

Conclusions and recommendations
• The Manning’s coefficients are distributed and it is tricky to get the true values.
• The Manning’s coefficients are distributed and it is tricky to get the true values.
For that reason, Manning’s coefficients were treated as the model parameters
Forand
here thatthey
reason,
couldManning’s coefficients
be calibrated were
to minimize thetreated asfunction.
objective the model parameters
here and they could be calibrated to minimize the objective function.
• Monte Carlo simulation random value sampling technique helps to reduce the
• Monte Carlo simulation random value sampling technique helps to reduce the
uncertainty involved in estimating future outcomes
uncertainty involved in estimating future outcomes
• The result of this research shows the applicability of ensemble simulation
• The result of this research shows the applicability of ensemble simulation
techniques, providing satisfactory outcomes for high flow conditions in the Ribb
techniques, providing satisfactory outcomes for high flow conditions in the Ribb
• SRTM DTM with HEC-RAS, Hec-GeoRAs and GIS application produces a
•reasonable
SRTM DTM with HEC-RAS,
probabilistic Hec-GeoRAs
map to show decision and GIStheapplication
makers produces
significance of flood a
reasonable
disasters and probabilistic
set priorities map to poor
in data showareas
decision makers the significance of flood
disasters and set priorities in data poor areas
• Encourage ground data sources, other sources of satellite imageries
• Encourage ground data sources, other sources of satellite imageries
• SRTM DTM data sources should be tested in data rich areas
• SRTM DTM data sources should be tested in data rich areas
• Exercise correction of SRTM DTM using satellite imageries
• Exercise correction of SRTM DTM using satellite imageries
• Exercise different uncertainty estimation technique, seasonal parameterization
• Exercise different uncertainty estimation technique, seasonal parameterization
• Development of land use model structure
• Development of land use model structure
• Other input data source, such as the ECMWF product of ERA interim and the
•Family
OtherEarly
inputwarning
data source, such References
product RFEas the ECMWF product of ERA interim and the References
Family Early warning product RFE Assefa, Andel S, Jonoski A (2008) Warning in Lake Tana
• Compare the result of this models with simple raster models. For example Assefa, Andel S, Jonoski A (2008) Warning
Compare the result of this models with simple raster models. For example Sub
•LISFLOOD-FP Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. WaterinMill
Lake Tana
1: 3-17
Sub Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia. Water Mill 1: 3-17
LISFLOOD-FP Di Baldassarre G, Schumann G, Bates PD (2009) A
Di Baldassarre
technique G, calibration
for the Schumann of G,hydraulic
Bates PD models
(2009) Ausing
technique
uncertain for theobservations
satellite calibration ofofhydraulic models
flood extent. using
Journal
uncertain satellite observations
of Hydrology 367: 276-282 of flood extent. Journal
of Hydrology 367: 276-282
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