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Lahore Garrison University

STAT 114Probability&Statistics Week-4 Lecture-7
Semester- Fall 2018
Prepared by:

MR ARSHAD HAMEED
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Preamble (Past Lesson Brief)

 Define Conditional Probability

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Learning Outcomes

 Students will be able to find the probability of an event by using a partition of the sample
space S.
 Be able to apply Bayes Theorem to find the conditional probability of an event when the
“reverse” conditional probability is the probability that is known

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Baye’s Theorem

 Bayesian statistics is a collection of tools that is used in a special form of statistical

inference which applies in the analysis of experimental data in many practical situations
in science and engineering. Bayes’ rule is one of the most important rules in probability
theory. It is the foundation of Bayesian inference.

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Partitioning the sample space S.

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Example 2.41

 In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and 25%,
respectively, of the products. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the
products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished
product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?
 Solution: Consider the following events:
 A: the product is defective,
 B1: the product is made by machine B1,
 B2: the product is made by machine B2,
 B3: the product is made by machine B3.

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Tree diagram for Bayes Rule

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Solution:

 Applying the rule of elimination, we can write

P(A) = P(B1)P(A|B1) + P(B2)P(A|B2) + P(B3)P(A|B3).
 Referring to the tree diagram, we find that the three branches give
 the probabilities
 P(B1)P(A|B1) = (0.3)(0.02) = 0.006,
 P(B2)P(A|B2) = (0.45)(0.03) = 0.0135,
 P(B3)P(A|B3) = (0.25)(0.02) = 0.005,
 and hence
 P(A) = 0.006 + 0.0135 + 0.005 = 0.0245.

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Bayes’ Rule

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Example

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Solution:

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Home Assignment

Q:1 Bag 1 contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another bag 2 contains 5 red and 6 black
balls.one ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. find the
probability that it was drawn from bag 2.

Q:2 Given that three identical boxes I, II, III , each containing two coins. In box I , both
coins are gold coins, in box II both are silver coins and in box III, there is one gold and one
silver coin. A person chosen a box at random and takes out a coin , if coin is of gold, what is
the probability that other coin in the box is also of gold.

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Q &A

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References

 Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists by Ronald E. Walpole,

Raymond H. Myers, Sharon L. Myers and Keying E. Ye, Pearson; 9th Edition
(January 6, 2011). ISBN-10: 0321629116 2
 Walpole, P.E., Myers R.H., Myers S.L. (1998), “Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientists”, 7th Ed. Prentice Hall.

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