Gollis university

Engineering Department

Electric Power Systems planning

Presenting: Engr.Jama Adam Salah
 Power system planning

 Power system planning is done to

integrate new elements into the power
grid. These elements can be new
generators, circuits, or equipment.
 The purpose of planning is to ensure that
the system will continue to operate
reliably given changes to the system.
 Planning is performed at both the
distribution and transmission level, and
also incorporates new generation
planning.
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power system planning is to determine an
economical expansion of the equipment and facilities
to meet the customers' future electric demand with
an acceptable level of reliability and power quality.
The purpose of planning is to ensure that the
system will continue to operate reliably given
changes to the system. Planning is performed
at both the distribution and transmission level,
and also incorporates new generation planning.

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Methods of power system planning
 The steps taken in the method of power system planning studies are:
 1. forecast of annual energy and power demand
 2. load modeling
 3. generation and choice of mixing the various types of
generating stations.
 4. Optimization of power plant characteristics
 5. new substation: their capacity & location
 6. new power plants and their subdivision
 7. Network expansion and
 8. optimization of equipment characteristics
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 Load Forecasting

Load forecasting is a technique used by power or

energy-providing companies to predict the
power/energy needed to meet the demand and
supply equilibrium.
The accuracy of forecasting is great significance
for the operational and managerial loading of a
utility company.

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Types of load forecasting

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 Types of load forecasting

Load forecasting can be divided into three major

categories:
Long-term electric load forecasting, used to supply electric
utility company management with prediction of future needs
for expansion, equipment purchases,
Medium-term forecasting, used for the purpose of
scheduling fuel supplies and unit maintenance
Short-term forecasting, used to supply necessary
information for the system management of day-to-day
operations and unit commitment

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 Long term forecast

 Long term forecasts time period from 15 to

20 years of studying the energy problems
 It takes four to six years for the
construction, installation and maintenance
of the equipment in power-stations
 Long term forecast indicates the sales and
purchase of the equipment
 Long term forecast indicates the energy
policies
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 Methods of long term load forecasting

 long-term load forecasting is always inaccurate

 peak demand is very much dependent on temperature
 some of the necessary data for long term forecasting including
weather condition and economic data are not available,
 it is very difficult to store electric power with the present
technology,
 it takes several years and requires a great amount of
investment to construct new power generation stations and
transmission facilities
 Therefore, any long-term load demand forecasting, by nature,
is inaccurate!
 Generally, long-term load demand forecasting methods can be
classified in to two broad categories: parametric methods and
artificial intelligence based methods.
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 Medium term forecast

 Medium-term forecasts time period varies from

5 to 6 years of planning and size of the power
station.
 Medium term forecast indicates the
transmission and distribution losses
 Medium term forecast indicates the sales and
purchase of the energy
 Medium term forecast indicates the energy
conservation
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 Short term forecast

 Short term forecasts of 1 to 2 years are

mainly of value in deciding operating
procedures and preparing budget
estimation.
 Short term forecast indicates the sales
and purchase of the power.
 Short term forecast indicates the
development of distribution networks.
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Forecasting load and energy requirements

 The following methods are used for

forecasts or estimates of future
demand of electrical energy:
 1. load-survey methods
 2. methods of extrapolation
 3. mathematical methods
 4. energy consumptions

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 Load-survey methods

 This methods the area under consideration

existing and future load requirements are
forecast.
 The consumer groups are classified into
residential consumers, domestic consumers,
commercial consumers and industrial consumers.
 This method is consider the characteristics of the
load
 Load survey method distribution loss is 10 to 15%.

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 Methods of extrapolation

 This method involves the study of the data collected

from various records and used in the comparison of
trends of increase in demand and energy consumption
during past periods comparable with the periods of the
forecasts.
 Extrapolation methods rates are then used for the future
estimates of the forecasts.
 In the statistical method of prediction of future load and
future possible energy consumption.

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 Mathematical methods

 This methods curves are plotted with the data of

the energy consumption for past years.
 This method uses the linear and exponential
curve fitting techniques.
 This method is applicable where adequate
statistical data over a sufficient long period on
the past consumption is available.

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 Energy consumptions
 It is observed that the specific yearly power
consumption depends on the economic factor in the
country
 Changes in demand for various types of energy by
economic sectors.
 Balance between the demand for commercial energy and
the various activity of the economy.
 Cost of energy in relation to the rate of growth of the
country
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 Thank you for
your attention

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