Counting and Probability

By: Jeffrey Bivin

Lake Zurich High School

jeff.bivin@lz95.org

Last
Jeff Updated:
Bivin -- LZHS
April 20, 2009
 Fundamental Counting Principal
How many different meals can be made if 2 main courses,
3 vegetables, and 2 desserts are available?

Let’s choose a
main course
M1 M2

Now choose a
vegetable
V1 V2 V3 V1 V2 V3
Finally choose
A dessert D1 D2 D1 D2 D1 D2 D1 D2 D1 D2 D1 D2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Linear Permutations
A club has 30 members and must select a president, vice
president, secretary, and treasurer. How many different
sets of officers are possible?

president vice-president secretary treasurer

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Linear Permutations
A club has 30 members and must select a president, vice
president, secretary, and treasurer. How many different
sets of officers are possible?

president vice-president secretary treasurer

P
30 4
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Permutation Formula
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
30! 30!
30 P4  
(30  4)! 26!
30  29  28  27  26!
 30  29  28  27
26!
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Linear Permutations
There are 25 students in a classroom with 25 seats in the
room, how many different seating charts are possible?

seat 1 seat 2 seat 3 seat 4 seat 5

1.5511 x 10 25

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Linear Permutations
There are 25 students in a classroom with 25 seats in the
room, how many different seating charts are possible?

seat 1 seat 2 seat 3 seat 4 seat 5

1.5511 x 10 25

P
25 25
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Permutation Formula
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
25! 25!
25 P25  
(25  25)! 0!
25!
 25! 1.5511 x 10 25
1
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 More Permutations
There are 5 people sitting at a round
straighttable,
line how many
different seating arrangements are possible?
5! 120
Divide by 5   24
5 5

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 More Permutations
There are 5 people sitting at a round
straighttable,
line how many
different seating arrangements are possible?
When circular, 5! 120
divide by the   24
number of items 5 5
in the circleNow
Treatconsider
all
the circular
permutations
as if linear
issue

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 More Permutations
There are 9 people sitting around a campfire,
straight line how many
different seating arrangements are possible?
Yes, 9! 362880
  40320
divide by 9 9 9
Is it circular?
Treat all
permutations
as if linear

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 More Permutations
There are 5 people sitting at a round
straighttable
line with a captain
chair, how many different seating arrangements are
possible?
5!  120

NOTE:

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 More Permutations
How many ways can you arrange 3 keys onstraight
a key line
ring?
3! 6
Yes, divide by 3   2
3 3  1
2
Treat all
permutations
Is it circular?
as if linear
Now, try it. . .
PROBLEM:
Turning it over
results in the
same outcome.
So, we must
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
divide by 2.
 More Permutations
How many ways can you arrange the letters MATH ?

4!  24
How many ways can you arrange the letters ABCDEF ?

6!  720

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Permutations with Repetition
How many ways can you arrange the letters AAAB?

4!  24 24
Divide by 3!   4
3! 6
Let’s look at the possibilities:

AAAB If a permutation has

repeated items, we divide
AABA Whatthere
Are is the
by the number of ways of
ABAA any others?
problem?
arranging the repeated
BAAA
items (as if they were
different).

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 How many ways can you arrange 5 red, 7 blue and 8
white flags on the tack strip across the front of the
classroom?

20!
 99,768,240
5! 7! 8!
If all were different, how may ways could we arrange
20 items?

There are 5 repeated red flags  Divide by 5!

There are 7 repeated blue flags  Divide by 7!
There are 8 repeated white flags  Divide by 8!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 How many ways can you arrange the letters
AABBCCCCDEFGGGGGG ?

17!
 5,145,940,800
2! 2! 4! 6!
If all were different, how may ways could we arrange
17 items?

There are 2 repeated A’s  Divide by 2!

There are 2 repeated B’s  Divide by 2!
There are 4 repeated C’s  Divide by 4!
There are 6 repeated G’s  Divide by 6!
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Permutations ORDER

Multiply the possibilities

! Assume the items

are in a straight line
or
Use the nPr formula
(if no replacement)

? Are the items

in a circle?
Divide by the number
of items in the circle

? Can the item

be turned over?
Divide by 2

Are there duplicate

? items in your
arrangement?
Divide by the factorial of the
number of each duplicated item

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 How many ways can you put 5 red and 7
brown beads on a necklace?

How may ways could we arrange

12!
12 items in a straight line?
12  2  5! 7!
Is it circular?
Yes  divide by 12
Can it be turned over?
Yes  divide by 2 33
Are there repeated items?
Yes  divide by 5! and 7!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 How many ways can you arrange 5 red
and 7 brown beads on a necklace that has
a clasp?

How may ways could we arrange

12!
12 items in a straight line?
2  5! 7!
Is it circular?
N0  the clasp makes it linear
Can it be turned over?
Yes  divide by 2 396
Are there repeated items?
Yes  divide by 5! and 7!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 How different license plates can have 2
letters followed by 3 digits (no repeats)?

26 ∙ 25 ∙ 10 ∙ 9 ∙ 8
A straight line? lette letter number number number
r

Is it circular?
No 468,000
Can it be turned over?
No

Are there repeated items?

No

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 How different license plates can have 2
letters followed by 3 digits with repeats?

26 ∙ 26 ∙ 10 ∙ 10 ∙ 10
A straight line? lette letter number number number
r

Is it circular?
No 676,000
Can it be turned over?
No

Are there repeated items?

Yes, but because we are using multiplication and
not factorials, we do not need to divide by anything.
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Solve for n: n P4 = 40 · n-1P2
n! (n  1)!
 40 
(n  4)! (n  2 1)!
n!(n  3)!  40  (n  1)!(n  4)!
n(n  1)!(n  3)(n  4)!  40  (n  1)!(n  4)!
(n  1)!(n  4)! (n  1)!(n  4)!
n(n  3)  40
n  3n  40  0
2

n  8n  5  0
n  8  0 or n  5  0 {8}
n8 or n  5
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 NO order Use the
Combinations NO replacement nCr formula

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Combinations
An organization has 30 members and must select a
committee of 4 people to plan an upcoming function.
How many different committees are possible?

n!
n Cr 
(n  r )! r!
30! 30!
30 C4  
(30  4)! 4! 26! 4!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Combinations
A plane contains 12 points, no three of which are co-
linear. How many different triangles can be formed?

n!
n Cr 
(n  r )! r!
12! 12!
12 C3  
(12  3)! 3! 9! 3!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Combinations
An jar contains 20 marbles – 5 red, 6 white and 9 blue. If
three are selected at random, how many ways can you
select 3 blue marbles?

n!
n Cr 
(n  r )! r!
9! 9!
9 C3  
(9  3)! 3! 6! 3!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Combinations
An jar contains 20 marbles – 5 red, 6 white and 9 blue. If
three are selected at random, how many ways can you
select 3 red marbles?

n!
n Cr 
(n  r )! r!
5! 5!
5 C3  
(5  3)! 3! 2! 3!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 The OR factor.
An jar contains 20 marbles – 5 red, 6 white and 9 blue.
If three are selected at random, how many ways can you
select 3 blue marbles or 3 red marbles?

OR  ADD
9! 5!
9 C3  5 C3  
(9  3)! 3! (5  3)! 3!
84  10  94
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 The AND factor.
An jar contains 20 marbles – 5 red, 6 white and 9 blue.
If three are selected at random, how many ways can you
select 2 blue marbles and 1 red marble?

AND  MULTIPLY
9! 5!
9 C 2  5 C1  
(9  2)! 2! (5  1)!1!
36  5  180
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 At least
An jar contains 20 marbles – 5 red, 6 white and 9 blue.
If five marbles are selected at random, how many ways
can you select at least 3 blue marbles?

3 or 4 or 5 blue
3B2NB or 4B1NB or 5B

9 C3 11 C2  9 C4 11 C1  9 C5
84  55  126  11  126
6132
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 At most
An jar contains 20 marbles – 5 red, 6 white and 9 blue.
If five marbles are selected at random, how many ways
can you select at most 1 red marbles?

0 or 1 red
0R5Nr or 1R4NR

5 C0 15 C5  5 C1 15 C4
1  3003  5  1365
9828
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Evaluate each of the following:
15! 15!
15 C9    5005
(15  9)!  9! 6!  9!
23! 23!
23 C10    1144066
(23  10)!  10! 13!  10!
15! 15!
15 C6    5005
(15  6)!  6! 9!  6!
23! 23!
23 C13    1144066
(23  13)!  13! 10!  13!
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 SO……..
n! n!
n Cr  Cn  r 
(n  r )!  r!
n
n  (n  r ) !  (n  r )!
n!
Cn  r 
n
n  n  r !  (n  r )!
n!
n Cn  r 
r !  (n  r )!

n Cr  n Cn  r
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 PROBABILITY

Definition:

number of success
The ratio 
total number of outcomes

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Probability

A coin is tossed, what is the probability that

you will obtain a heads?

Look at the sample space/possible outcomes:

{H,T}

number of success 1
Pr(H) = = 2
total number of outcomes

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Probability

A die is tossed, what is the probability that

you will obtain a number greater than 4?

Look at the sample space/possible outcomes:

{1,2,3,4,5,6 }

number of success 2 1
Pr(>4) = = 6
= 3
total number of outcomes

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Probability – Success & Failure
A die is tossed, what is the probability that
you will obtain a number greater than 4?
number of success 2 1
Pr(>4) = = 6
= 3
total number of outcomes

What is the probability that you fail to obtain

a number greater than 4?
number of failures 4 2
Pr(>4) = = 6
= 3
total number of outcomes

Pr(success) + Pr(failure) = 1 TOTAL =

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Probability
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3
marbles are selected at random, what is the
probability that all three are red?
number of success 5C3
Pr(3 ) = R
=
total number of outcomes 13C3

have want
10 5
5 red 3 red
 
8 blue 286 143
Total: 13  3
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Probability
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3
marbles are selected at random, what is the
probability that all three are blue?
number of success 8C3
Pr(3 ) = B
=
total number of outcomes 13C3

have want
56 28
5 red
 
8 blue 3 blue 286 143
Total: 13  3
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Probability – “and”
multiply

A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3

marbles are selected at random, what is the
probability that one is red and two are blue?
number of success C1 ● 8C2
5
Pr(1 2 ) = R B
= C
total number of outcomes 13 3

have want
5  28 140 70
5 red 1 red
  
8 blue 2 blue 286 286 143
Total: 13  3
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 A jar contains 5 red, 8 blue and 7 white
marbles. If 3 marbles are selected at
random, what is the probability that
1 red, one& 1ofwhite
1 blue,
each color is selected?

# of success 5 C1●8C1●7C1
Pr(1R,1B,1W) = = C3
total # of outcomes 20

have want
5 8  7 280 14
5 red
8 blue
1 red
1 blue
  
7 white 1 white 1140 1140 57
Total: 20  3
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 A jar contains 7 red, 5 blue and 3 white
marbles. If 4 marbles are selected at
random, what is the probability that 2 red and
2 white marbles are selected?

# of success 7 C2 ● 3C2
Pr(2R,2W) = =
total # of outcomes 15C4
have want
21 3 63 3
7 red
5 blue
2 red
  
3 white 2 white 1365 1365 65
Total: 15  4
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Five cards are dealt from a standard deck of
cards. What is the probability that 3 hearts
and 2 clubs are obtained?

# of success 13 C3 ● 13C2
Pr(3 ,2 ) =
H C
=
total # of outcomes 52C5
have want
13 diamonds
286  78 22308 5577
13 hearts 3 hearts   
13 clubs 2 clubs 2598960 2598960 649740
13 spades

Total: 52  5
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Probability – “or”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that all
three are red or all three are blue?

# of success C3 + 8C3
5
Pr(3 or 3 ) =
R B
=
total # of outcomes 13C3

have want want

10  56 66 3
5 red 3 red
OR   
8 blue 3 blue 286 286 13

Jeff Bivin --13

Total: LZHS  3
 A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles and 7 yellow
marbles. If 3 marbles are selected at random, what is
the probability that all three
3 red orare the same
3 blue or 3 color?
yellow ?

# of success C3 + 8C3 + 7C3

Pr(3 or 3 or 3 ) =
R B Y
= 5

20C3
total # of outcomes

10  56  35 101
 
1140 1140
have want want want
5 red 3 red
8 blue OR 3 blueOR
7 yellow 3 yellow

Jeff Bivin --20

Total: LZHS  3
 Probability – “or” with overlap
If two cards are selected from a standard deck of
cards, what is the probability that both are red or
both are kings? Pr(2R or 2K) = Pr(2R) + Pr(2K) – Pr(2RK)

# of success C2 + 4C2 – 2C2

26
=
total # of outcomes 52C2
have want want 325  6  1

26 red 2 red
overlap 1326
26 black
OR 2 red 330 55
kings  
4 kings 2 kings 1326 221
48 other

Jeff Bivin --52

Total: LZHS  2
 Probability – “and” with “or”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
two are red and one is blue or that one is red and two
are blue?
# of success 5 C2● 8C1 + 5C1 ● 8C2
Pr(2R1B or 1R2B) = total # of outcomes
= C3
13

have want want

10  8  5  28 220 10
5 red 2 red
OR
1 red
  
8 blue 1 blue 2 blue 286 286 13

Jeff Bivin --13

Total: LZHS  3
 Probability – “at least”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
at least two red marbles are selected?
22red
red and
or 31red
blue
or 3 red
# of success 5 C2● 8C1 + 5C3
Pr(2
Pr(atR1least
B
or 32RRed
) =)= =
total # of outcomes 13C3

have want want

10  8  10 90 45
5 red 2 red
OR
3 red
  
8 blue 1 blue 286 286 143

Jeff Bivin --13

Total: LZHS  3
 Probability – “at least”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
at least one red marble is selected?

5 C1● 8C2 + 5C2 ● 8C1 + 5C3

Pr(at
Pr(1 R B least
2 or 2R1B1or 3) =) =
Red R
13C3

5  28  10  8  10
have want want want 
5 red 1 red 2 red 3 red
286
OR OR
8 blue 2 blue 1 blue 230 115
 
Jeff Bivin13
Total: -- LZHS  3
286 143
 Probability – “at least”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
NO red marbles are selected?

C3 56 28
Pr(0R3B) =
8
 
13 C3 286 143
In the previous example we found
have want
5 red 
Pr  1 red
 
115
143
8 blue 3 blue
Pr(success) + Pr(failure) = 1
Total:13
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS  3
 Probability – “at least”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
at least one red marble is selected?
Pr(success) + Pr(failure) = 1
Pr(success) = 1 - Pr(failure)

Pr(>1 red) = 1 – Pr(3

Pr( 0blue)
red )
C3 56 230 115
1 1 8
 
13 C3 286 286 143
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS
 Probability – “at least”
A jar contains 8 red and 9 blue marbles. If 7 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
at least one red marbles is selected?
FASTEST
success Pr(at least 1Red)
Pr(1R6B or 2R5B or 3R4B or 4R3B or 5R2B or 6R1B or 7R)

failure Pr(0Red) Pr( 0R7B )

C
Pr(at least 1 ) = 1 - Pr(0 7 ) =
Red R B 1  7 9

36 4853 17 C 7
1 
Jeff Bivin -- LZHS 19448 4862
 Probability – “at least”
A jar contains 8 red, 9 blue and 3 white marbles. If 7
marbles are selected at random, what is the probability
that at least three red marbles are selected?
FASTEST
success Pr(> 3Red)  Pr(3-7 red)
failure Pr(< 3Red)  Pr(0-2 red)
393
1 - Pr(0R7NR or 1R6NR or 2R5NR) 646
C7  8 C1 12 C6  8 C2 12 C5 30360
1 12 1
77520
20 C7

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Probability – “with replacement”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
one red followed by two blue marbles are selected if
each marble is replaced after each selection?
Note: In this example
Must use fractions!
an order is specified
R B B
 
5 8 8
13 13 13   
5 8 8
13 13 13  320
2197

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS

 Probability – “with replacement”
A jar contains 5 red and 8 blue marbles. If 3 marbles
are selected at random, what is the probability that
one red and two blue marbles are selected if each
marble is replaced after each selection?
Problem:
Must use fractions!
Fractions imply order!
R B B
3 C2    5 8 8
13 13 13  3  
5 8 8
13 13 13  960
2197

Must account of any order!

Jeff Bivin -- LZHS