Climate Change and Forestry

Natural Resources Canada

Canadian Forest Service
Pacific Forestry Centre
Victoria, Canada
 Overview
 Global forests and forestry
 Forests and the carbon
cycle
 Climate change and
forests:
• Impacts
• Mitigation
• Adaptation
 Global forests

Forest
Other wooded land
Other land
Water

 Forests comprise 4 billion ha (30% of land surface, 434 billion m 3)

 89% natural (36% primary and 53% modified)

Source: FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005

 Global forests: recent changes
Change 2000 – 2005

 Greatest forest loss in

low-income, low-latitude
countries
 Average annual net loss:
Brazil – 3.1 million ha
Indonesia - 1.9 million ha
 Average annual net gain:
China – 4.0 million ha

>0.5% decrease per year >0.5% increase per year Change rate <0.5% per year

 Forest loss due to:

• Expansion of settlements, infrastructure, unsustainable logging practices
• Sources of carbon
 Forest gain due to:
• Afforestation, landscape restoration, natural forest expansion
• Sinks of carbon

Source: FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment 2005

 Carbon implications of global forest cover
change

 Forests: both large sources and sinks of carbon

 The global forest sector:
• Emissions from deforestation 1.6 Gt C/yr
• Equivalent to 20% of anthropogenic GHGs
 Forests affect and are affected by climate change
• Outcome determines mitigation/adaptation potential
 How forest affect the carbon cycle

3.2 ± 0.1 GtC/yr Airborne fraction

Atmosphere
 Less than half of
human emissions
Biosphere
stay in atmosphere
 Mitigation = reduced
emissions and/or
6.4 ± 0.4 1.6 ± 0.9 2.6 ± 0.1 2.2 ± 0.4
increased sinks
Fossil fuel Land-use change Land uptake Ocean uptake
(esp. forests)  Forests/forestry
can have significant
Reduce emissions Increase sinks impacts on future
atmospheric C
Data from IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
concentrations
 Climate change and forests: impacts
Projections of surface temperatures (relative to 1980-1999)
2020 – 2029 (short term) 2090 – 2099 (long term)

Emission scenario:

B1

A2

Increasing Climate Increasing Impacts on

GHGs change temperatures forests

Feedbacks?

From IPCC AR4 WG1 2007

 Climate change and forests: impacts (short term)
Increased productivity Increased disturbance
 CO2 fertilization  Size/severity of forest
 Higher temperature fires, wind damage, floods
(inc. growth rate)  Rate/severity/range of
 Nitrogen mineralization native insect and disease
 Longer growing season impacts
 Invasive species
 Range expansion
 Feedbacks
 Climate change and forests: impacts (long term)
Restricted distributions, esp. northern hemisphere

Current 2 x CO2

Climate change

Temperate grasses
Grasslands
Deserts
Savanna
Tropical seasonal forests
Tropical moist forest
Wetland, mangrove etc
Agricultural land
Ice
Tundra
Boreal forests

IPCC 1995, GFDL + MAPSS models

 Forests and mitigation
 Forests and forestry cannot solve the problem of fossil C
emissions, but they can contribute to the solution
 Reduced deforestation, increased afforestation could more
than offset global carbon emissions from the transportation
sector (Stern 2006)
 Forests and mitigation: management options

 Maintain (or increase) forest area

• Reduce deforestation, increase afforestation
 Increase stand-level carbon density
• Partial harvest systems, reduce residue
burning, reduce regeneration delays, species
selection
 Increase landscape-level carbon density
• Lengthen rotations, inc. conservation areas,
protect against disturbance
 Increase stored C in wood products,
reduce fossil C emissions through
product substitution and bioenergy
• Longer-lived products, recycling, biofuels,
salvage
 Forests and adaptation
Adaptation = adjustments in ecological, social, and economic systems in
response to the effects of climate change. (Smit et al. 2000)

1st assessment report

2nd assessment report
3rd assessment report  Continued warming
Observed even with emissions
held at 2000 levels
Constant from 2000  Impacts greatest at
higher latitudes
 Increasing need for
Emissions scenarios adaptation to
accompany
mitigation efforts

From IPCC AR4 WG1 2007

 Forests and adaptation
“…more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to
reduce vulnerability to future climate change. There are barriers, limits
and costs, but these are not fully understood.” (IPCC AR4 WG2 2007)

Opportunities?
 Technological
(e.g. assisted migrations, increased resilience)
 Behavioral
(e.g. altered ecosystem service requirements)
 Managerial
(e.g. altered forest practices)
 Policy
(e.g. planning regulations)

A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish

the risks associated with climate change.
 Credits

 Hojda Vasile Cătălin

 Silvesan Lucian

 Zăgrean Antonia
 Moldovan Natalia