MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

INTERESTED PARTIES GLEN BOLGER KEY FINDINGS WISCONSIN CD 7 SURVEY OCTOBER 7, 2012

Methodology NMB Research completed a survey of 400 likely voters in the 7th Congressional District of Wisconsin. The survey was completed September 30-October 1, 2012 and include 80 interviews with cell phone respondents. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9 in 95 out of 100 cases. Key Findings 1. Wisconsins 7th district tilts Republican. The Republican candidate leads on the generic ballot (47% GOP candidate/42% Dem candidate), the Presidential ballot (49% Romney/Ryan/46% Obama/Biden) and the Senate ballot (50% Thompson/43% Baldwin). 2. Sean Duffy outperforms the statewide candidates and is over 50% on the ballot test. Duffy leads challenger Pat Kreitlow by a 51%-40% margin. Duffys committed vote is 41%, which is higher than Kreitlows total vote. Duffy leads with key groups, including by nearly two-to-one among Independents and 51%-44% among seniors. Even among the 66% who have heard of both candidates, Duffys lead remains constant, up 51%-40%.

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3.

Kreitlows image is underwater. Kreitlow may have 68% name ID, but it is the bad kind of name ID. Only 18% are favorable to Kreitlow, while 20% are unfavorable. Thus, the Democratic challenger is already upside down at the beginning of October, which is quite an accomplishment for a challenger usually a challenger who ends up with higher negatives than positives does not get there until mid/late October.

The Bottom Line Sean Duffy is in solid shape for re-election against a now-unpopular challenger. This is not a good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.