To: Americans United For Change

From: The Mellman Group, Inc. Re: President Obama Takes Slight Lead In Tight Florida Race, And Leads Early Vote Date: October 28, 2012
This analysis represents the findings of a statewide survey of the likely November 2012 Florida electorate using a registration-based sample including cellphones and landlines. Eight hundred (800 interviews were conducted in English and Spanish October 24-27. The margin of error for the whole sample is +/-3.4% at a 95% level of confidence and higher for subgroups depending upon size.

Our latest poll shows President Obama gaining momentum in Florida and now leading Mitt Romney 49% to 47%, with the pool of undecided voters shrinking to just 4%. Among the 29% who have already cast their ballot, the President received the support of over halftopping Romney 51% to 47%. Last week the President was tied with his challenger. President Obama continues to lead Romney among women (52%-44%), AfricanAmericans (94%-1%), Hispanics (56%-39%) and 18-to-39 year-olds (62%-39%). More importantly, he maintains his edge among swing voters, who often decide closer to Election Day, with stable leads among registered independents (51%-43%) and selfdescribed moderates (61% to 33%). In addition, Obama maintains a stronger image among independents, who give the president a 54% to 45% favorable/unfavorable rating, but split evenly 48% to 48% on Romney. While the momentum appears to be swinging in Obamas favor, the race is far from decided, and will almost certainly come down to the campaigns actions in the final days of the campaign. Delivering Floridas 29 crucial electoral votes may hinge on turning out key constituencies. This is especially true in the Miami/Palm Beach region, where the president leads Romney by a decisive 60% to 35% margin.