S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

This continues to be the much longer term wave count. In technical parlance, we are waiting on the Intermediate (B) Wave of Cycle -C- to conclude. We favor the idea of Triangle Cycle -C- because Wave (A) was an elongated flat, something normally witnessed within a triangle.

9/1/2000

-B-

REPRINTED from 4/24/2011

-D(B) (D)

< III >

(E)

-C-A(A) (C)

-E< IV > 2018-2030

Baby Boomers will have fully exited the Stock Market by this point

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly non-Log Scale

Because the decline off 1344 took on a corrective nature, we have been favoring an x wave development. While its possible the x wave already concluded at 1249, its not a favored count because of the extremely short duration of the x wave. So, the favored count remains more sideways/lower price action over the next few weeks. Though, the action last week is putting that idea in some serious jeopardy--it was a very good week for the bulls.
1425 - 1440*

(B) y
1344

REPRINTED from 4/24/2011

b
1249

w
d

x?

a c

1040

*The next area of classic chart resistance doesnt come in until the 1425-1440 zone

(A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly non-Log Scale

Weve been on the same short term wave count for more than 3 months now. This count is about to get tested out a bit. The question weve had for the last few weeks was What kind of Triangle x wave is this? The expanding triangle was favored, but with last weeks price action, its not as likely. Its more likely were near the end of neutral or contracting triangle.

(B) y
1344

d?

e? a c

a c

1040

x (C)

(A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily non-Log Scale

If the market can bottom early this week, this could actually be considered a contracting triangle. On a closing basis, the dwave was 78.6% of b-wave and the e-wave, so far, was 61.8% of c-wave. 1267 would be 78.6% of c=e. If this count is correct, the market should be bottoming soon and begin a grind back to new highs, the final z-wave. This last z-wave should only last 12-16 weeks. Perhaps we get an counter-seasonal rally through September and October. Investors are conditioned to NOT be invested in the stock market through October, so it might make sense for a rally during months nobody is expecting.
b d?

(B) z?
c

y
1344

e?

x?
c a

Warning/Achtung: While the short term implications are for a small rally, please be aware that the longer term (next 1024 months) call, is for much lower price, the (C) Wave.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support and Resistance

Im starting to see and hear a bit more talk on this proposed Head and Shoulder top on the S&P 500. If this particular pattern starts to get more airplay on CBNC, then we can feel better about it NOT playing out. In the meantime, 1295 has been an important pivot for this market for months now. So, naturally, its the first level of resistance for next week. Bulls we need to take the market above 1325 to confirm the contracting triangle conclusion. 1267 and 1249 look like good first and second levels of support. Its tempting to take a stab at short Head term length in that zone.
Left Shoulder Right Shoulder

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY - Daily
( IV )
e
81.31

The Wave 3 development is one of the reasons Im not happy with the impulsion lower concept. This is a bit of a forced count, but its hard for me to see an alternative. The bounce from the Wave 3 was strong enough to suggest the conclusion of at least a lesser degree wave form. This is why, form a short term trading perspective, its tempting to be long. Also, even if Wave 4 has already concluded, the Wave 1=5 target is 71.90. So, even if we take out the previous low, it will by a marginal basis and will like be a bear trap. The trading bias is to be long the DXY, though the risk is a move to 71.90.

2
-2-

REPRINTED from 6/4/2011

-4-1-

1
-3-

(2) (4)

4?

4
(1) (3)

-5-

3
5 1

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY - Daily
( IV )
e
81.31

There were a few reasons I wasnt in love with the impulsive down count from 81.31, but it seems be working as the model. The wave-4 was a triangle and did NOT overlap with the Wave-1 low. And, now we seem to be impulsing down in final Wave-5. The 1=5 target would be 72.28 which would be a huge Bear Trap because 72.28 would just barely brake the Wave-3 low of 72.70.

4
-e-

-a-

-c-

Throw over

-2-

-1-d-b72.70

-4-?

-3-?

-5-?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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